By Doug Schneider IndyCar, Pirelli World Challenge, and all three of the Mazda Road To Indy series will be in action this weekend at the beautiful Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course near Lexington, Ohio. While my forecast has a chance of rain on three of the four days, note that the chance of rain is very low on Thursday and Saturday, and Sunday looks dry right now. There is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, because the models are not in good agreement on the weather pattern. I expect that there will be some changes to this forecast over the next few days as the weather pattern comes into better focus.
By Doug Schneider A cold front moved through Toronto yesterday, bringing showers to the city during the evening hours. Unfortunately, the rain might not be done as there will be a secondary cold front and upper level trough that will still have to move over the area today. But once these move through, there should be some really nice weather for the Honda Indy Toronto.
By Doug Schneider I have to start this post by saying that there is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast. The models are not in good agreement with their depictions of when and where rain will fall around Toronto this weekend. The general weather pattern appears to be an unsettled one, with a broad low pressure trough in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Weak disturbances passing around the trough will be the key to the rain chances, but this far out, it is difficult to pin them down.
By Doug Schneider The forecast for the 100th Indianapolis 500 was a mixed bag of hits and misses. The general pattern throughout the events was a southerly flow of warm, moist air that provided weak instability and hit-or-miss showers each day. There wasn't a well-defined low pressure system or front that moved across the area to provide organized showers and thunderstorms, which is part of what made the precipitation forecast difficult. I knew there would be some showers around each day, but the question was whether they would hit the Speedway. Given the weather pattern, fans at the Speedway were very fortunate to dodge most of the showers through the event. Showers and thunderstorms rolled through Speedway in the early afternoon on Thursday, producing around a quarter inch of rain. The early arrival of the rain kept temperatures in the 70s all day, a little cooler than forecast. Friday turned out to be a dry day, and my 50% rain chance was definitely too high. The abundant sunshine on Friday raised temperatures into the mid 80s, a bit above my initial forecasts. There were some showers around central Indiana on Saturday, but they managed to just avoid the Speedway. A trace of rain was recorded at the airport on Saturday. In retrospect, a 50-60% rain chance in the forecast was probably on the high side, but at least there was some rain in the area. The Indy 500 on Sunday was SO close to being interrupted by thunderstorms. Around 2 pm, a thunderstorm passed just a few miles north of the Speedway. While there was an extended caution flag period for light sprinkles, the weather didn't cause any problems or significant delays, as I had been expecting. But it was very, very close. I was sweating it out there for a while, keeping one eye on radar and one on the race. For the month of June, Scott will be busy preparing the forecasts at all the Road America events as part of our partnership with them. I'll be forecasting for the rest of the events on our schedule, including Le Mans.
By Doug Schneider Unfortunately, showers and thunderstorms washed out qualifying for the Indy Lights Freedom 100 today. The weather pattern for tomorrow and Saturday looks much the same as it did today, so the chances of seeing additional showers and thunderstorms on Carb Day and Legends Day will be 50/50 or higher. In a moist air mass like this one, it is difficult to pin down the timing of showers in advance. Showers are possible at any time of the day Friday and Saturday, so if you're at IMS or at Lucas Oil Raceway for the Carb Night Classic, you should stay weather-aware. You can click the IMS Radar link at the top of the page to see where storms are in relation to IMS, along with lightning strikes. The range rings that are displayed mark 8, 12, and 16 miles from the Speedway. Remember - if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Have a plan in advance of where to seek shelter, and move there as soon as you hear thunder. Remain sheltered until 30 minutes after the last thunder is heard.
Sunday continues to look more promising for racing as a ridge of high pressure will develop over the southeast, which will cut off the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Still, there will be a small chance of showers and thunderstorms due to an upper level disturbance that will move through. The key will be the timing. It looks like the atmosphere will be capped for most of the day, which means that showers will not be able to develop until this cap breaks. Forecasting the timing of this is always tricky, but right now, I expect that storms will hold off around the Speedway until late in the afternoon (around 3 pm or later). I'm optimistic that the race will be done before any storms develop. The 30% chance of rain in the forecast is for the chance of rain before 4 pm. I'd put the chance of rain after 4 pm closer to 50%. Even if the storms hold off until after the race, they could add to the traffic problems leaving the Speedway. By Doug Schneider Watch the video weather briefing for my latest thoughts on the weather for the Indianapolis 500. By Doug Schneider It's almost time for the 100th edition of the Greatest Spectacle in Racing. While we all hope that the weather won't interfere with the events, but unfortunately, the weather pattern later this week looks like a potentially wet one.
The pattern across the eastern half of the United States will feature high pressure off the Southeast coast and low pressure over the Plains. This will produce a southerly flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico toward Indiana. The abundant moisture along with afternoon heating will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms. This pattern is expected to persist and not change very much through race weekend, so there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms at the Speedway everyday. I've been monitoring the weather models over the past few days, and they generally agree on this pattern, and have been consistent from one model run to the next. So I have medium confidence in this forecast. There is some good news in this forecast - there isn't a strong low pressure system or front tracking across the area that will make any particular day a complete washout. Pinning down a specific time that is favored for rain is difficult this far out, but I think that the afternoons will be the favored time for showers due to heating creating some instability. It looks more like a passing shower or thunderstorm will be possible at times that will wet the Speedway and move on. Another piece of good news is that Sunday appears to have the lowest chances of showers, as the high pressure area off the Southeast coast is expected to build a little toward the west. This may push the Gulf moisture westward and keep most of the showers west of Indiana, so I have a lower rain chance on Sunday than the other days. With the pattern changing very little, high temperatures are expected to be in the lower 80s each day. Winds will be from the south to southwest around 10 mph each day. I plan on making a video briefing for the forecast update on Tuesday. By Doug Schneider Showers and thunderstorms continue to be on track for today at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, which will affect the IndyCar and MRTI practice sessions. This morning, there are some light showers around central Indiana, but the bigger concern for storms will be in the afternoon when a cold front will move through. While there may some showers at any time of the day, I expect that thunderstorm activity will be greatest between 3 pm and 7 pm. No severe weather is expected, but the storms may produce frequent lightning and gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph. Rainfall amounts today will average a quarter to a half inch around Indianapolis. If you're at the Speedway today, stay aware of what weather may be approaching and be prepared to get to shelter when thunder is heard.
Rain will be out of the area by sunset, and clouds will be decreasing through the night as drier air builds in from the west. Friday will be a beautiful day, with plenty of sunshine, low humidity, and temperatures reaching the upper 60s. A second cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms again on Friday night. Fortunately, I don't expect this rain to have any impact on the racing, as it will be long gone by the time the Indy Lights cars start their warm up at 9:45 am. Any moisture on the track should dry quickly as winds will be blowing from the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. The main weather story for race day will be the cool temperatures, which will be in the 50s. The breezy northwest winds will make it feel even colder, so be sure to bring a jacket if you're going to the race. We'll have our live radar link to cover the storms near the Speedway today to help you stay weather aware. |
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