By Doug Schneider

 The chances of rain continue to rise on Saturday at the Roar, with moderate impacts to the on track activity.

An cold front will be approaching from the north on Friday. Daytona will be ahead of the front during the day, so a southwest wind and pleasant temperatures in the lower 70s can be expected. A few light showers or sprinkles may be possible on Friday, but I don't expect they would be enough to have any impact. 

The front will stall across central Florida on Friday night, and a low pressure system will track long it, from the Gulf to the Atlantic. This will bring rain to Daytona starting Friday night, with periods of on/off rain through the day on Saturday. Most of this rain is expected to be light, maybe increasing to moderate at times. This could result in some periods where the testing will need to be stopped. At least it will be a good test for the Michelin rain tires. Breezy conditions are also expected on Saturday, with a north wind between 10 and 20 mph, gusting to 25 mph at times. Total rainfall amounts from Friday night through Saturday night are expected to be around a quarter of an inch. 

The system will exit the area Saturday night, and drier air will move in, so the chance of rain will end before on-track action resumes on Sunday. Despite abundant sunshine, temperatures will be cool on Sunday, with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees. 

By Doug Schneider

As I mentioned on Sunday's post, the forecast for the Rolex 24 is very uncertain, with poor model agreement. That continues to be the case today in some respects, mainly regarding the amount of rain that might (or might not) fall. 

A cold front is expected to be approaching the area from the northwest on Friday. This is slower timing than what I was seeing with Sunday's forecast. This should mean warmer temperatures during the day, with highs reaching into the lower 70s. There could be an isolated light shower around Daytona, mainly in the afternoon, but the chance of any impacts are low at this time. 

Saturday is my lowest confidence day in this forecast. It looks like the front will stall somewhere across northern Florida, and keep a chance of showers going through the day. Some models are showing a low pressure system tracking along this front, which produces a lot of rainfall at the track on Saturday. I'm not buying into this idea yet - I think it is more likely that showers are more scattered in coverage and are light, but that could change. 

There is better model agreement now that Sunday will be dry, as the front that brings the chance of rain on Saturday will exit the area. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday, peaking near 60 degrees. 

I plan to have another update posted on Thursday, unless changes are needed sooner.

By Doug Schneider

The first forecast for 2022 at the Roar has a lot of uncertainty with it. The models are not in good agreement about the weather pattern next weekend, so I don't have a lot of confidence in this forecast.

The main features that I see that will impact the weather at Daytona are a cold front that could cross the area on Friday, then an upper level disturbance that crosses the area on Sunday. However, some models are showing different timing of these features, and produce some rain on Saturday. How much rain there will be is still to be determined as well, but it does not look like a pattern that will produce copious amounts of rain that will have a big impact. Bottom line, there may be some rain at some point during the Roar, and temperatures will likely be colder than normal, with highs in the lower to mid 60s. 

This is my best guess as of today, and I expect that there will be changes through the week, so be sure to check back for updates. 

By Doug Schneider

A cold front will move through Road Atlanta early Saturday morning. No rain is expected with the front, and the air mass over Georgia is very dry. The main impact of the front will be chilly temperatures through the race. There will be abundant sunshine, but high temperatures will only reach the mid 50s. By the end of the race, we could see temperatures dropping into the 30s. For those who are camping at the track, low temperatures Saturday night will be in the lower 30s, so you could wake up to frosty conditions Sunday morning. Stay warm!

By Doug Schneider

Good news on the forecast for Petit Le Mans with today's update - the best chance of rain has shifted earlier, mainly Thursday night, which will have less potential impacts on the racing. 

Wednesday continues to look like a beautiful day, with warm temperatures in the lower and mid 70s under mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, clouds will increase, along with the chance of rain. I expect to see on/off light showers at times throughout the daytime hours, but they might be more numerous in the afternoon. While an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, I think the chance of one at the track is low. On Thursday night, heavier showers will be possible along a cold front, which is most likely to pass through the area between midnight and 4 am. The chance of rain will likely end once the front passes. However, The models still have some slight timing differences, and so I still kept a slight chance of showers in for early Friday morning (around or before sunrise). The rest of Friday should be very nice, with clouds clearing out and high temperatures in the mid 60s. 

Saturday will be noticeably colder as a second cold front will bring a surge of cold air from the northwest. Highs will only reach into the 50s, and winds will be brisk, from the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. If you're at the race on Saturday, don't forget to bring a coat!

By Doug Schneider

Rain could be a factor at times at Road Atlanta on Thursday and Friday as a cold front moves through the region. There is uncertainty about the timing, which makes for uncertain impacts on the racing. But I think the chance of seeing rain tires on the cars at some point is pretty good. 

Wednesday will be a beautiful day with southerly winds bringing mild temperatures in the lower 70s, and mostly sunny skies.

Scattered rain showers are possible in the area on Thursday, and timing is too uncertain at this time to pinpoint a favored time for showers. But it does appear likely that they will remain light and brief, so I don't expect much impact. 

Rain showers should be more numerous on Friday as a cold front gets close to Road Atlanta. With rain amounts on Friday expected to be light, I think the racing will be able to continue with wet tires. Timing is also uncertain as models are showing different timing of the frontal passage. The earliest timing pushes it through in the morning, with the latest timing pushing it through Saturday morning. So quite a big difference. The most likely solution is that it will exit by the start of the race on Saturday, and colder temperatures will follow the front. The main event should be dry and mostly sunny, and breezy with a northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph.

I will continue to monitor and update as needed through the week. 

By Doug Schneider

I'm feeling more optimistic about the weather conditions at VIR this weekend. While showers are likely on Saturday, the bulk of the rainfall is expected Friday night, with low impacts on the racing.

The chance of rain continues to drop for today. I expect a mix of sun and clouds through the day, with the possibility of a shower late in the day. A thunderstorm can't be ruled out, but the chance of lightning appears low. The WeatherTech qualifying session could be affected. Rain will be increasing Friday evening and continue overnight, which won't be great for campers but at least i won't affect any racing. Rain amounts through Friday night could be between a half inch and one inch.

Showers are likely to continue into early Saturday morning. I expect shower coverage to decrease during the late morning to early afternoon hours. It is possible that some showers in the area during the WeatherTech race, but the chance will be decreasing, from 70% in the morning to maybe 30-40% in the afternoon. Around a tenth to a quarter inch of rain is possible on Saturday. 

Sunday continues to look dry. With a mix of sun and clouds, highs will reach the mid 70s. Should be a very nice day for the Michelin Pilot Challenge race. 

By Doug Schneider

While the forecast graphic hasn't changed much from my initial forecast, the timing and amount of rain is coming into better focus today. There are likely to be showers in the area of VIR starting Friday afternoon, and continuing through Saturday. However, this does not look like a wash-out, and I expect that the overall impacts will be low. There could be some practice sessions that are cut short by rain, but I don't think that the rain will be heavy enough to cause cancellations.

An upper level low pressure trough will be near the Appalachian Mountains on Friday, which will create a southeast flow of moisture off the Atlantic into the Piedmont of NC/VA. This system, along with some partial sunshine providing instability, will generate numerous showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon. The rain chances will be highest late in the afternoon as the day's activities are winding down. 

The good news in this forecast is that I expect the heaviest rain to fall on Friday night. It won't be great for campers, but at least it won't affect any racing action.

The upper trough will move east of VIR on Saturday, but there will still be some showers in the area as moisture remains high. I think these showers will mainly be light, and the risk of thunderstorms appears very low. Showers will be possible at any time of the day, but I think they will be most numerous in the morning, with lower chances in the afternoon. 

Rain amounts for Friday through Saturday are expected to be in the range of a half to one inch, but again, I expect most of that to accumulate on Friday night.

​Drier air is likely to build in on Sunday. I should mention that a couple models are showing some light showers lingering into Sunday, but other models keep Sunday dry and partly sunny. I'm leaning toward the more optimistic forecast being correct.