By Doug Schneider

Good morning from VIR! I awoke to this view from my room at the Lodge - 

There are some isolated showers around this morning, but they likely won't have an impact. Most of the day will be partly to mostly cloudy, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s.

A cold front will be moving across the area from north to south today. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, affecting the track starting around 4 pm (+/- 1 hour). The time period with the highest chance of storms is between 4 and 8 pm. Lightning and gusty winds will be the main threats from these storms, and rainfall may be heavy. Rain amounts are likely to be between a quarter and a half inch.

For Saturday, with the front located across central North Carolina and continuing to push south, there will be just a 20% chance of light showers in the morning. It will be mostly cloudy and cool through the day, with a high in the lower 70s. Winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph.

Mostly cloudy and cool conditions will continue on Sunday as high pressure to the north extends over the area.  Highs will be in the upper 70s, with a northeast wind at 5-10 mph.

By Doug Schneider

The models are coming into better agreement on their projections for rain chances at VIR this weekend, which increases my confidence in this forecast compared to Monday. Unfortunately, they are not moving in the direction I had hoped for, as the chances of rain appear higher for Friday and Saturday morning. 

A cold front will be moving from north to south across Virginia on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be numerous along this front as it approaches VIR late in the day. With good instability present and plenty of moisture to work with, I have raised the chance of rain on Friday to 80%. Thunderstorms will be a concern, and some of them could be strong, producing gusty winds,frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts are expected to be between a quarter and a half inch. While there will be a chance of rain at any time of the day, the afternoon sessions are most likely to be impacted, including the Michelin Pilot Challenge qualifying. 

Rain showers are likely to persist through Friday night as the front moves through the area. If you're camping at the track Friday night, be prepared for wet conditions. Although the front will be south of VIR Saturday morning, there could still be some scattered showers around in the morning. These showers will have less impact on activities than Friday's storms. There is a much lower chance of lightning and heavy rain. If rain occurs on Saturday, I expect it to be fairly light, less than a tenth of an inch, which would not have much impact. Behind the front, a north wind will bring cooler air, and with mostly cloudy skies, highs are expected to be in the upper 70s to near 80. 

The front is expected be located across central North Carolina on Sunday, and the rain associated with it should remain far enough south of VIR to keep any chance of rain out of the forecast. Weather for the main event on Sunday should be quite nice, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures around 80. 

I plan on posting the next update on Friday. However, I will be at the track providing weather support, and with the active weather expected, I may not have time to put a forecast together until the evening, or possibly Saturday morning.

By Doug Schneider

A cold front is expected to bring some showers and thunderstorms to the Virginia/North Carolina border region on Thursday, but there is a lot of uncertainty about what happens after Thursday as the models do not agree on where the front will be located as on-track activities begin at VIR.

​The chance of rain at VIR is highest on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the north. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon, with the chance of rain around 60%. 

There are a couple different scenarios about how fast this front will move through southern Virginia, which makes this forecast uncertain. The GFS model is quick to push the front through and bring in dry air behind it. It shows the front moving south of VIR on Thursday night, and brings in cooler and drier air on Friday. This scenario would keep Friday through Sunday rain-free. 

The ECMWF (Euro) model is much slower with the southward movement of the front. It does not take it south of VIR until late Friday night or Saturday morning. This scenario would keep a chance of rain going through Friday and into Saturday. 

With such as big timing difference, my forecast confidence is low, but I'm going to take a middle-of-the-road approach. I think the front will be close enough to VIR to warrant a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday, then move far enough south to keep rain out of the forecast for Saturday.

The good news in this forecast is that the main event on Sunday is likely to be dry. Since the models are in agreement for that day, my confidence in Sunday staying dry is moderate to high.

​Temperatures and humidity levels should drop a little behind the front, and with partial cloud cover and a northeast wind, Saturday and Sunday should be pleasant days to spend at the track with highs in the mid 80s. Not bad for late August in southern Virginia.

I'll be at the track so I'm really hoping the dry scenario works out. Check back through the week for updates.

By Doug Schneider

Hot temperatures continue to be the main weather factor at Lime Rock on Friday and especially Saturday. A slight chance of thunderstorms has been added to the forecast for Friday, but I don't expect this to have an impact.

A large high pressure ridge will be centered to the southwest of Connecticut, near the Ohio River and Kentucky. This ridge will remain nearly stationary through the end of the week, and provide a southwesterly flow of warm and humid air into Lime Rock. On Friday, there is a slight weakness moving across the top of this ridge that is expected to spark some showers and thunderstorms in the Mohawk Valley region of New York in the afternoon. These storms will track to the east-southeast, and may reach the Lime Rock area late in the day. The final practice session of the day is held from 4:55 to 5:55 pm, and it will be close as to whether storms reach the track by the time it ends. I think it is more likely that they arrive after 6 pm, so I have kept the Impact at a Green Flag. 

Temperatures and humidity will continue to climb on Saturday, and the combination of heat and humidity will make it feel like it is over 100 degrees. The atmosphere appears a little more stable on Saturday, so any chance of showers and thunderstorms is unlikely.

​If you're at the track either day, drinking plenty of water will be a must. Alcoholic beverages won't keep your body adequately hydrated. Take frequent breaks in the shade and use sunscreen. 

By Doug Schneider

The main weather concern at Lime Rock Park this weekend will be the hot temperatures. 

The remains of Tropical Storm Barry will get picked up by a mid-latitude trough, which will move across New England on Thursday. As teams set up at the track that day, there will likely be showers and thunderstorms in the area, especially in the first half of the day.

​By the time on-track action starts on Friday, the trough will be well to the east and high pressure will be building over the area. This large high pressure ridge will dominate the eastern U.S. over the weekend, and bring above normal temperatures to much of the country.  

At Lime Rock Park, high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday are expected to easily reach into the lower 90s. With dewpoint temperatures near 70, it will feel humid as well, with a heat index pushing 100 degrees. Anyone going to the race will need to be prepared to stay hydrated - drink plenty of water and find shade whenever possible to avoid heat exhaustion.