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Race day forecast for the Mobil 1 Twelve Hours of Sebring

3/17/2023

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By Doug Schneider

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Good news with today's forecast update - the cold front that will be approaching Sebring is trending slower, which means a later arrival of showers. A later arrival time closer to sunset means there will be less instability for storms to tap into, so strong storms are unlikely. The coverage of showers is also looking less than it was before, so the chance of shower during the race is lowering.

There are still some timing differences among the models, but I expect that the window for showers and thunderstorms to arrive will be between 7 pm and 10 pm - the last few hours of the race. There is still a potential for a lightning delay, depending on whether a storm tracks close enough to the track, but the risk appears lower than with previous forecasts. The threat of strong wind gusts and heavy rain has also decreased, but again, the threat will depend on whether a storm moves directly over the track. With coverage expected to be scattered, they could miss the track completely. 

I'll try my best to post radar updates during the race on our Twitter account - @RacecastWx. 
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Forecast update for the Mobil 1 Twelve Hours of Sebring

3/15/2023

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By Doug Schneider

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Not much has changed with the expected weather pattern at Sebring this weekend. Thursday and Friday continue to look great, with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures each afternoon. 

Saturday continues to be a concern for impactful weather at the track. A cold front approaching from the north will interact with a warm and unstable air mass across the Florida Peninsula, leading to showers and thunderstorms in the area during the afternoon. 

Timing continues to be very uncertain, as the arrival time of rain is different in the models by several hours. The earliest arrival time looks to be between noon and 2 pm. However, I think the most likely time for showers to begin at the track will be between 2 pm and 5 pm. There could be multiple rounds of showers, so I expect that rain and possibly some thunderstorms could remain around the area into the evening hours. 

The main impact with these storms will be lightning. It will be important for fans to have a place to seek shelter when thunder is heard. I expect that lightning will result in a stoppage of the race at some point for the safety of the corner marshals and the cameramen on towers. Another possible impact will be winds, which could become gusty when the storms move in, so campers will need to secure loose objects, especially tents and canopies. Finally, a brief heavy downpour will be possible. I expect the total rainfall amount through the end of the race to be between a quarter and a half inch, but it could come down quite heavily at times.
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Initial forecast for the Mobil 1 Twelve Hours of Sebring

3/13/2023

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By Doug Schneider

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All eyes will be on the Saturday's weather for this year's edition of the 12 Hours of Sebring. The forecast graphics tell the story about Wednesday through Friday - beautiful weather is expected those days, with no impacts, so I'll focus on Saturday.

A cold front is expected to approach the area on Saturday, and cross Sebring late Saturday night. Rain is likely ahead of the front, in the form of numerous showers and thunderstorms. 

The primary hazard with these storms will be lightning. I expect that there will be delays during the race due to lightning in the area. Other potential impacts from storms will be heavy downpours and gusty winds. Fans at the track should be prepared for rainy and windy conditions, and have a plan to seek shelter when lightning is in the area.

The uncertainty with these impacts is when they will happen. There will be a warm and unstable air mass ahead of the approaching cold front across southern and central Florida, so thunderstorms could pop up early in the afternoon. However, it looks like the models are showing the bulk of rain occurring in the late afternoon and evening hours, during the second half of the race. The thunderstorm threat will linger into Saturday night for campers at the track, as the front isn't expected to move through the area until late in the night or early Sunday morning. Since we are still several days away, the exact timing remains unclear, but that should come into better focus later in the week. Check back here for updates. 
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Wednesday forecast update for the Rolex 24

1/25/2023

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By Doug Schneider
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The weather continues to look great for this year's edition of the Rolex 24 Hours at Daytona. Only a few small changes were made from Monday's initial forecast.

Today at Daytona will be warm and breezy. High temperatures will reach the mid 80s, and winds will be 10 to 20 mph, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph at times. A cold front will approach the area from the northwest, and bring some showers to the area tonight.

Colder temperatures will follow the cold front for Thursday, with high temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees colder than Wednesday. Cool and sunny conditions will continue through Saturday as winds remain from the north. Sunday will see warming temperatures into the 70s, with increasing clouds. Some rain showers could arrive late Sunday, but it looks like they will hold off until after the race is over. 
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First forecast for the Rolex 24 at Daytona

1/23/2023

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By Doug Schneider
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This year's edition of the Rolex 24 is expected to have very nice weather. Temperatures will be on the cool side for a few days, but dry weather is expected through the event. 

The opening day of practice for Mazda MX-5 Cup and Michelin Pilot Challenge will be the warmest day of the event, with high temperatures reaching into the lower 80s, thanks to a south wind at 10 to 20 mph. A cold front will be approaching the area from the northwest, and there is a slight chance of a late day shower. Most of the showers with the front will come after sunset, and will exit before sunrise on Thursday, so I don't expect that rain will have an impact on the practice sessions. 

Behind the cold front, temperatures will be quite a bit cooler as winds switch around to the northwest. For Thursday through Saturday, highs will be in the lower to mid 60s, with lows in the 40s. This is about 6-10 degrees colder than normal at Daytona, but not as cold as last year's race which had lows in the 30s. 

Sunday will be very nice, with temperatures warming into the mid 70s, under partly sunny skies.
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Forecast update for the Roar Before the 24 and a look ahead to the Rolex 24

1/20/2023

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By Doug Schneider
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The chance of rain on Saturday is looking higher with today's forecast update for the Roar. A cold front is expected to move through the Daytona area today, but it will be dry. There will be some clouds and fog in the area to start the day, but it will clear out behind the front, leaving a mostly sunny afternoon. 

The front is expected to stall across central Florida, just south of Daytona. On Friday night, a low pressure system will take shape over the Gulf of Mexico, which will cause the front to lift back to the north. Moisture will begin spread over the warm front on Saturday afternoon, which will lead to scattered showers in the Daytona area. This could affect the late day sessions. The highest chance of rain will be Saturday night as the front moves over Daytona.

Sunday will be quite mild as the warm front will be across Georgia, and a southerly wind strengthens. Winds will be gusty, up to 25 to 30 mph at times. Most of the day will be dry, but there is a slight chance of some isolated showers in the area, mainly in the afternoon. 
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The Rolex 24 weekend is within range of some of the models, so let's take a look at the general pattern that they are pointing to, keeping in mind that the details are uncertain this far out.

​There is good agreement among the models that a broad upper level trough will be over the eastern United States for the latter half of next week. At the surface, they show a cold front moving across Florida around Wednesday or Wednesday night, followed by a large surface high pressure area over the Gulf Coast region and the Southeast. 

From this pattern, we can expect a good chance of dry weather through the majority of the event. The possible exception to the dry weather may be on Wednesday with the cold front passage, and possibly late Sunday as a low pressure system develops over the Gulf. Temperatures below normal can be expected for Thursday through Saturday. For Daytona, the normal high temperature is near 70, with a normal low temperature in the upper 40s. I expect that highs will be mainly in the 60s, and lows in the 40s. It does not look like last year, which had very cold temperatures around freezing on Sunday morning. 

I'll have a forecast graphic with all the details posted on Monday morning. 
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First forecast for the Roar Before the Rolex 24

1/16/2023

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By Doug Schneider
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We're excited to bring you another season of race forecasts! The 2023 racing season kicks off with the IMSA Roar Before the Rolex 24, and this year's edition should be very interesting with the new GTP cars. 

Overall, it looks like the weather will not be a significant factor during the Roar, but there could be some pesky light showers in the area, mainly on Saturday afternoon and on Sunday. 

A cold front is expected to pass through Daytona on Friday morning. It should be a dry frontal passage, as moisture will be very limited. However, a brief sprinkle can't be ruled out entirely, but the chance of one is very low. Behind the front, winds will shift to the northwest, but temperatures will remain pleasant, with highs in the mid 70s.

On Saturday, the front is expected to stall south of Daytona, then lift back to the north Saturday night. The exact position of this front, and how quickly it lifts northward, will determine the rain chances for Saturday. This makes the forecast rather uncertain, but at this time, I expect that the late afternoon hours will have a slight chance of showers. Any showers should be light, with low impacts. 

On Sunday, the front will be north of the area, and a warm southerly flow will develop. This will warm temperatures up into the upper 70s, and south winds will be breezy and gusty. Gusts up to 30 mph will be possible. Like Saturday, the chance of rain will depend on the position of the front. Some models keep it near the FL/GA border, and have higher rain chances in Daytona, while others push it much farther north and have no rain in Daytona. For now, I will have a just slight chance of showers in the forecast. If shower occur, they should be light with little impact. I expect gusty winds will be the bigger impact on Sunday.
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2022 Weather and Racing Photo Gallery

12/27/2022

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It's been a pleasure to complete another year of bringing you weather forecasts for your favorite racing series. 2023 will be the ninth year that Scott and I have been running this site, and we are thankful to have Stephen and Harris join us to expand our efforts and keep it going strong. We truly appreciate all our followers who share in our loves of weather and racing. 

Without further ado, here are the best photos from 2022 that combine our two favorite things - weather and racing! ​Hope you enjoy these photos from some excellent photographers. Have a happy New Year, and we'll see you in 2023!
WEC at Bahrain, by TF Sport
Fog at Bathurst 12 Hour, by @Bathurst12Hour
Christian Lundgaard at Indy GP, by Jacob Clouse (@JacobCMedia)
F1 at Silverstone, by Chris Willison
Sunset at the Indianapolis 8 Hour, by J. Douglas Boles (@jdouglas4)
Kyalami 9 Hour, by Mercedes-AMG Motorsport (@amgmotorsport)
Lightning at Indy GP, by Dream Digital
IMSA Prototype Challenge at Daytona, by Michelin Racing (@MichelinRaceUSA)
North Wilkesboro sunset, by @NWBSpeedway
Rainbow at Carolina Speedway, by @RacingAmerica
Rolex 24 sunrise, by Michael Goodwin
Rolex 24 sunrise, by Beaux Barfield
Rolex 24 sunrise, by Sideline Sports Photography
Sebring sunset by Mark Urban
Snow at Circuit Spa, by @CircuitSpa
Snow at IMS, by @IMS
Ultimate Cup Series at Circuit Paul Ricard, by Erwin Seite for @GTxReport
Rainbow at VIR, by @VIRnow
IMSA at Road America, by Jose Mario Dias
Bathurst 12 Hour by Audi Sport
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