By: Stephen McCoy

A pleasant, though fairly warm, Thursday will give way to cooler conditions later in the weekend with showers and/or thunderstorms expected for Friday and Saturday as a cold front passes through the region. Breezy/windy conditions will also accompany the front with strong gusts expected during Saturday.

For Thursday expect fairly stable conditions with winds from the North/Northwest bringing warm, continental air southward. The air will be somewhat dry, with dew point temperatures around 60 F (16 C), so heat index values should be relatively similar to air temperatures. Some low-to-mid level cloud cover may develop during the afternoon, but conditions will be largely pleasant through much of the day.

For Friday, conditions will look similar during the morning to Thursday, however a cold front approaching from the Southwest is expected to bring showers and/or thunderstorms to the region during the mid-to-late afternoon; expect slightly cooler maximum temperatures as winds will be from the East/Northeast ahead of the front. Once the front passes through, temperatures will fall to their coolest of the weekend, struggling to pass 70 F (21 C) on Saturday. Scattered showers will stick around through much of Saturday as saturated air moves in through the low and mid levels of the atmosphere; even without precipitation, expect overcast conditions to persist through much of the day.

By Doug Schneider

Cold temperatures will be the story for this edition of the 24 Hours of Daytona. As teams begin their preparations on Saturday morning, temperatures will only be in the mid to upper 30s. High temperatures during the opening hours of the race will only be in the mid to upper 40s. The wind will pick up during the day, with sustained northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph, gusting to between 25 and 30 mph. This will make it feel even colder, with wind chills in the mid to upper 30s. During the night, temperatures will drop to around 30, possibly into the upper 20s around 6 AM. By the end of the race, temperatures are expected to return to near 50 degrees. Stay warm and enjoy the race! 

By Doug Schneider

The story of the weather for the Rolex 24 continues to be the very cold temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. This will not be typical Daytona Beach weather. If you're heading to the race, prepare for the cold temperatures. Dress warmly, with multiple layer, hats, and gloves.  

The chance of rain on Thursday has been added with this update. In my last forecast, I mentioned some models showing some light rain spreading in from the Atlantic on Thursday, and now all the models are trending in that direction. The good news is that this rain will remain light, in the form of on/off showers or sprinkles, so the impact will be low. Only around a tenth of an inch of rain is expected on Thursday. 

Friday looks pretty similar to Thursday as there will be a low pressure trough off the east coast of Florida, with a northeast flow of moisture over the central Florida coastline. Like Thursday, this rain should remain light and scattered, with only a tenth of an inch of rain expected. The morning hours will have the best chance of rain, although showers will continue to be possible in the afternoon, during the MPC race. 

A cold front will sweep through the area Friday night, and temperatures will drop like a rock. Lows on Saturday morning will be in the mid 30s. It will be sunny through the day, but with a NW wind at 10 to 20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph, it will feel quite chilly. With temperatures in the 40s and the wind, it will feel more like the 30s. 

On Sunday morning, low temperatures will drop to near freezing, and rise into the 50s by the end of the race under sunny skies.

The next planned update will be posted on Friday.

By Doug Schneider

The main weather impact on the 24 Hours of Daytona events will be the temperatures. Daytime temperatures are going to stay below normal throughout the entire event (normal high is 69), especially on Saturday and Sunday, and a breeze will make it feel even colder. The good news is that the 24 hour race appears to be rain-free. 

A low pressure system will be tracking across northern Florida on Tuesday, bringing a good amount of rain through Tuesday night. The current timing of this system suggests that some light rain could continue into Wednesday morning. Since the practice sessions that day are only in the afternoon, I do not expect any impacts. 

An area of high pressure will move across the Southeast states on Thursday, which should provide a dry and partly sunny day. I will mention that some models keep a low pressure trough off the east coast of Florida, and spread a few showers inland. For now, I think the chance of that is too low to mention in the forecast, so I'm keeping it dry. Thursday will have the warmest temperatures of the event, in the mid to upper 60s.

A deep upper level trough digs southward into the Southeast states on Friday, which causes a low pressure area to form off the east coast of Florida. This will result in the chance of some showers around on Friday and Friday night. A cold front will also accompany this trough passage, and bring much colder air for Saturday and Sunday. It will be breezy behind the front, with a northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph. Dress warmly for the overnight hours, as lows will be in the 30s. 

By Doug Schneider

 The chances of rain continue to rise on Saturday at the Roar, with moderate impacts to the on track activity.

An cold front will be approaching from the north on Friday. Daytona will be ahead of the front during the day, so a southwest wind and pleasant temperatures in the lower 70s can be expected. A few light showers or sprinkles may be possible on Friday, but I don't expect they would be enough to have any impact. 

The front will stall across central Florida on Friday night, and a low pressure system will track long it, from the Gulf to the Atlantic. This will bring rain to Daytona starting Friday night, with periods of on/off rain through the day on Saturday. Most of this rain is expected to be light, maybe increasing to moderate at times. This could result in some periods where the testing will need to be stopped. At least it will be a good test for the Michelin rain tires. Breezy conditions are also expected on Saturday, with a north wind between 10 and 20 mph, gusting to 25 mph at times. Total rainfall amounts from Friday night through Saturday night are expected to be around a quarter of an inch. 

The system will exit the area Saturday night, and drier air will move in, so the chance of rain will end before on-track action resumes on Sunday. Despite abundant sunshine, temperatures will be cool on Sunday, with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees. 

By Doug Schneider

As I mentioned on Sunday's post, the forecast for the Rolex 24 is very uncertain, with poor model agreement. That continues to be the case today in some respects, mainly regarding the amount of rain that might (or might not) fall. 

A cold front is expected to be approaching the area from the northwest on Friday. This is slower timing than what I was seeing with Sunday's forecast. This should mean warmer temperatures during the day, with highs reaching into the lower 70s. There could be an isolated light shower around Daytona, mainly in the afternoon, but the chance of any impacts are low at this time. 

Saturday is my lowest confidence day in this forecast. It looks like the front will stall somewhere across northern Florida, and keep a chance of showers going through the day. Some models are showing a low pressure system tracking along this front, which produces a lot of rainfall at the track on Saturday. I'm not buying into this idea yet - I think it is more likely that showers are more scattered in coverage and are light, but that could change. 

There is better model agreement now that Sunday will be dry, as the front that brings the chance of rain on Saturday will exit the area. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday, peaking near 60 degrees. 

I plan to have another update posted on Thursday, unless changes are needed sooner.

By Doug Schneider

The first forecast for 2022 at the Roar has a lot of uncertainty with it. The models are not in good agreement about the weather pattern next weekend, so I don't have a lot of confidence in this forecast.

The main features that I see that will impact the weather at Daytona are a cold front that could cross the area on Friday, then an upper level disturbance that crosses the area on Sunday. However, some models are showing different timing of these features, and produce some rain on Saturday. How much rain there will be is still to be determined as well, but it does not look like a pattern that will produce copious amounts of rain that will have a big impact. Bottom line, there may be some rain at some point during the Roar, and temperatures will likely be colder than normal, with highs in the lower to mid 60s. 

This is my best guess as of today, and I expect that there will be changes through the week, so be sure to check back for updates.