By Doug Schneider

The Trans Am Championship opens its season this weekend at Sebring, and overall, the weather looks good for the event. 

The Pirelli tire testing sessions on Thursday will likely be the only chance of rain impacting the track. There is a cold front that will be moving southward across Florida on Thursday, and scattered showers will be possible ahead of it. At this time, the atmosphere does not appear to have a large amount of moisture or instability with the front, so I am expecting that if there are showers on Thursday, they should be light. 

By Friday, the chance of showers should end as high pressure will be building over Florida behind the front. Temperatures will be a little cooler, but still very pleasant, in the upper 70s on Friday. Temperatures will gradually warm each day over the weekend, with highs in the lower 80s by Sunday. 

Overall, it should be a great weekend for going to Sebring, with both Trans Am and SVRA providing plenty of action and awesome cars.

By Scott Martin.

Living in Central Alabama, I am no stranger to tornadoes. Within the last six years, a tornado has touched down and moved within 1 mile of my house. One of those tornadoes was the April 27, 2011 event. The tornado moved through the city of Tuscaloosa and made a b-line towards downtown Birmingham. As I was watching the tornado ripping people's property to shreds, I noticed that its current path would bring it to my neighborhood. The tornado made it to within 1 mile of my house before it changed direction and moved just south of us. We were very fortunate that we only had to clean up debris that fell out of the sky, but you know the rest of the story.

I have always been a weather fanatic, or nerd, since I was a small child. This single event is what got me fired up to become a meteorologist, so I can help make a difference in keeping people safe during severe weather. Now let's get to the topic at hand.

A tornado is a violently rotating column of air usually descending from thunderstorms that makes contact with the ground. Wind speeds with a tornado can be as week as 65 MPH, but can reach upwards of 200 MPH and beyond. The fastest wind speed ever recorded in a tornado was 318 MPH, one that hit Moore Oklahoma back in 1999.

Tornadoes come in all shapes and sizes... In the Plains, most tornadoes are easy to see with low precipitation being involved and plenty of open spaces with hardly any obstructions. In the southeast, they are usually hard to see because they are rain-wrapped or hidden by the terrain. Either way, your safety depends on being constantly aware during severe weather events.

Understanding Tornado Alerts
What is the difference between a Tornado Watch and a Tornado Warning issued by the National Weather Service?

• A Tornado Watch means that tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area. Be ready to act quickly if a warning is issued or if you believe a tornado is approaching.
• A Tornado Warning means a tornado has been sighted or indicated by radar. Take action! There is imminent danger to life and property.

Tornado watches are issued by the Storm Prediction Center. The area of a watch is typically large, covering numerous counties or even states. Warnings are issued by your local forecast office. Warnings encompass a much smaller area, usually including parts of parts of a few counties at most. Warnings are issued when a tornado is observed by a person on there are definite signs on radar.

What To Do During A Tornado
Be prepared! Acting quickly is key to minimizing impacts and staying safe.

• Stay Weather Aware: During a severe weather threat, pay close attention to your reliable sources of watches and warnings and be ready to act in case a warning is issued.
• In Your Home: If a tornado warning is issued for your location, go to your basement, safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows. Get under something sturdy. Put on a helmet if possible.
• At Work or School: Proceed to the designated shelter area. Stay away from windows and do not go to large open rooms such as auditoriums, cafeterias, or gymnasiums.
• Outdoors: Seek shelter inside a sturdy building immediately. Sheds and storage facilities are not safe.
• In A Vehicle: You are not safe at all inside a vehicle during a tornado. Drive to the substantial structure and go inside. If one is not available, stay in the car, buckle up and get down OR seek shelter in a low lying area such as a ditch or ravine.

​What To Do After A Tornado

• Stay Informed: Continue to listen to local television or radio coverage or NOAA Weather Radio to stay updated about tornado watches and warnings. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes are possible during severe weather outbreaks.
• Contact Family and Loved Ones: Let your family and close friends know that you’re okay so they can help spread the word. Text messages or social media are more reliable forms of communication than phone calls.
• Assess The Damage: After the threat for tornadoes has ended, check to see if your property has been damaged. When walking through storm damage, wear long pants, a long-sleeved shirt, and sturdy shoes. Contact local authorities if you see power lines down. Stay out of damaged buildings. Be aware of insurance scammers if your property has been damaged.
• Help your Neighbor: If you come across people that are injured and you are properly trained, provide first aid to victims if needed until emergency responders arrive.

Don’t disregard severe thunderstorm warnings because severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes with little or no advance notice.

By Scott Martin.

This week is Severe Weather Awareness Week in the state of Alabama, and since you haven't seen a post by me on this blog in quite a while, I thought I would share some Weather Safety 101 with you.

Many find storms to be interesting and even thrilling, but they are dangerous creatures that deserve our respect. By definition, thunderstorms contain lightning, the underrated killer. Thunderstorms also produce damaging winds, hail, flooding and tornadoes. For a storm to be considered “severe”, it must contain at least one of the following criteria:

• Wind gusts of 58 MPH or greater
  
• Hail of 1 inch in diameter or greater
  
• A tornado
  

Although lightning can be deadly, the National Weather Service doesn’t use it to define a severe thunderstorm. If it did, every thunderstorm would be severe, by definition. Also, excessive rainfall may lead to deadly flash flooding, but heavy rain is not considered severe. Flood threats are handled through a separate set of watches and warnings from the NWS Birmingham. And there are tornadoes... yes these do make a thunderstorm severe, but they will be upgraded to a tornado warning by the NWS if that happens.

One event that can cause damage and injuries during severe thunderstorms are straight line winds. Damaging winds occur much more frequently than tornadoes and can be just as damaging. They can exceed 100 mph. Trees and power lines can be knocked down, mobile homes can be overturned, and well built homes and buildings damaged.

Another event that can cause damage and injuries during severe thunderstorms is hail. Hail is most common in the spring in Alabama, when atmospheric conditions make it most likely that the ice can reach the ground. Hail can cause severe damage to automobile and even to buildings, damaging roofs and windows. Hail injuries are rare, but do happen. Hail can also cause deaths, as happened on March 28, 2000 when a man in Fort Worth, Texas was struck by a baseball sized hailstone. There have been five recorded hail fatalities in U.S. history. So while it is not a frequent killer, it can still be deadly. To be safe, just don’t get caught outside in a thunderstorm.

Tornadoes are another event that can happen during severe thunderstorms. We’ll cover in another Weather Safety 101 post.

The primary safety rule for dealing with thunderstorms is to be in a well built structure, away from windows. This will protect you from the hail and non-tornadic winds. Also avoid any electrical equipment. If you are caught outside, find shelter immediately.

Stay tuned for another Weather Safety 101 post soon.

By Doug Schneider

It's time to take a look back and see how well I did with the forecasts for the Rolex 24 Hours of Daytona. 

If you're not familiar with how forecasts are verified in the spreadsheet below, here's a quick summary - the two top rows show the temperatures and precipitation that was observed at the Daytona airport, just behind the Speedway backstretch. The rows below that show the forecast temperature and PoP (Probability of Precipitation) each day that I made a new forecast. The columns with the dates are for each day and night period during the event, Thursday through Sunday. Day is defined as 7 am to 7 pm. The colors in the boxes show how far off my forecast was from what was observed, with the color legend at the bottom. 

By Doug Schneider

Radar is showing some showers to the north of Mount Panorama this morning:

Through the morning, this area of showers will be drifting toward the south. Right now they are weak, but with some heating after sunrise, they may increase in coverage and intensity. There is a chance that a shower or storm will affect the race during the mid to late morning hours. 

This afternoon, shower activity will be south of Mount Panorama, and the race is expected to stay dry, with breezy conditions and hot temperatures.

​If you want to keep an eye on the weather, a good source of radar is the Australia Bureau of Meteorology website. 

By Doug Schneider

My thoughts on the forecast for the Bathurst 12 Hour this weekend haven't changed much from the last forecast. A low pressure trough will be over New South Wales all weekend, which will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Friday has the lowest chance of seeing a storm at the track as the low pressure trough will be to the north, but it can't be ruled out. I think the chances are low enough to lower the weather impact to None (for more information on what our weather impact ratings mean, read this post). 

Saturday and Sunday are likely to have some weather impact. Moisture increases around Bathurst on Saturday as the low pressure trough will be in close proximity to the track. Showers and thunderstorms are likely in the afternoon and evening. As the trough moves south on Sunday, even more warm, moist air will move into the area to help feed afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Rain amounts each day are expected to be between a tenth to a quarter inch (between 2 and 6 mm), depending on if a storm directly passes over Mount Panorama. This could result in a period of stoppage during the race, particularly in the closing hours.