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Late Thursday Forecast Update for #HIGPA

4/28/2022

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By Scott Martin.
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While humidity levels will be higher on Friday, the good news is that the chance of rain has dropped out of the forecast at this point. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny throughout the day, with temperatures starting off around 62 at 8 am and warming up to around 83 for the afternoon high. Winds will be out of the south to southeast at 5-10 mph.

I am going to keep a very small chance of a scattered afternoon shower or thunderstorm in the forecast (around 30%) for Saturday, as there will be enough available moisture and instability for pop-up activity to form. We'll have a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day, with temperatures starting off around 64 degrees at 8 am and rising to around 82 for the afternoon high. Winds will be out of the south at 5-10 mph.

Unfortunately, showers and thunderstorms will stay in the forecast at times on Sunday, as much of the activity will take place during the morning hours. However, with the main heating of the day, we could see a few showers and storms redevelop during the afternoon hours. The good news is that this will not be a complete washout, and I have good confidence that we'll get all of the laps in the main event completed. I'm bumping the rain chances up to 70% during the morning and into the early afternoon hours, then dropping those to around 30% late afternoon to early evening. Skies will be mostly cloudy, with temperatures starting off around 65 degrees at 8 am and topping out around 81 for the high. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 2-8 mph.
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Forecast Update — Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama

4/27/2022

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By Scott Martin.
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There are some changes being made to the forecast for the whole event weekend out at Barber Motorsports Park, as now a few showers may be possible on Friday and Saturday, to go along with the rain chances on Sunday. The latest model runs of both the GFS and the European models are suggesting a small chance of showers over the track during the late morning through the afternoon hours on Friday. The GFS is showing some shower activity close by on Saturday afternoon, while the European model has showers over the track during the mid to late morning hours. Both models continue to show increased rain chances on Sunday as a front will be pushing into and through the area during the day.

At this point, I will push the rain chances up to 20% during the late morning through the afternoon hours on Friday, with partly to mostly sunny skies. I'll keep those rain chances around the same for Saturday, mainly for mid-morning through the afternoon. Unfortunately, I will be bumping those rain chances up to 60% throughout the day on Sunday with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

I'm crossing my fingers that lightning won't be too big of an issue on Sunday. If lightning is detected close by to the track, there will be an announcement made by the track for fans and competitors to seek shelter until the storms have passed. For now, the WPC office is keeping the heavier precipitation well north and northwest of the track, so it looks like for now rainfall may just be a small inconvenience. More updates to come.
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Initial Forecast for the Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama

4/25/2022

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By Scott Martin.
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It's time for the NTT IndyCar Series to make its annual visit to my home track, Barber Motorsports Park, just to the east of Birmingham, Alabama. The good news is that Friday and Saturday will be bright and sunny with warm temperatures, but there is some uncertainty on rain chances for Sunday. Here is the breakdown:

FRIDAY
Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the entire day at the track, with mild temperatures to start with. The 8 am temperature will be around 60 degrees and will warm up to around 83 degrees for the afternoon high. Winds will be out of the southeast to south at 5-10 mph and the chance of rain is 0%.

SATURDAY
It will be another mostly sunny day at the track, but it will feel a little more sticky out there as humidity will be increasing throughout the day. The 8 am temperature will start off around 63 degrees and will warm up to around 85 for the afternoon high. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 5-10 mph for much of the day, but there may be a few wind gusts that will reach as high as 20 mph during the mid to late afternoon. While rain is not expected during on-track activity, a few showers with some rumbles of thunder may be possible around and after sunset.

SUNDAY
Now, here is where the uncertainty comes into play. The GFS model (American) is showing that a cold front will be approaching Alabama during the day, but the latest run has the moisture staying away from the track throughout the entire day. However, the European model shows that the front will be in the process of moving through the state during the day that will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area for much of the day. While the cars can run in the rain, they will not run if lightning is close by. As of now, I will go with a 50% chance of rain with mostly cloudy skies. 8 am temperature will be around 65 degrees and the afternoon high will top out around 83 degrees. Winds will be out of the southwest at 5-10 mph.

This is also the main severe weather season in Alabama, and with some instability available in the atmosphere on Sunday, I can't rule out a strong storm with gusty winds, most likely during the morning to early afternoon hours. I'll have updates throughout the week. Also, if at the track or listening from home, I'll be on IndyCar Radio giving forecast updates from the track throughout the event weekend.
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Initial Forecast for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix

4/21/2022

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By: Harris Cooley
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After a little break from the action, we head to Imola for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix. Some nasty weather is expected as a few Low pressure systems around the area will be keeping moisture contents high. They will be pushing eastward through the weekend with rain showers occurring off and on as well. The system's circulation will be bringing moisture from the NE off of the Adriatic Sea through Friday along with light to moderate winds.

Conditions calm down with the passage of this system by Saturday morning with partly cloudy skies and low chances of rain. Rain chances return overnight into Sunday where lower pressures lay over the area and moist winds out of the SW will keep scattered thunderstorms around the area. On-site radar surveillance will be key for this race as storms will be intermittent and sporadic. Expect the track to be slick and visibility to be dull for race-day as of now, though the sun may show its face for the race period if we're lucky. As always, a metric graphic is provided below...
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Friday Morning Forecast Update for SRO at Sonoma

4/15/2022

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By Scott Martin
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A cold front will be south of the track today, which will keep temperatures on the cool side throughout the day, but it will also keep skies mostly sunny with no rain. However, after the on track activity has completed, the front will move back northward and will bring a chance of showers back to the area for the night and overnight hours. 8 am temperature will be around 43 degrees and will warm to around 62 degrees for the afternoon high. Winds will be out of the west-southwest at 5-10 mph. Rain chances while cars are on the track for much of the day are 0%, but will rise to just less than 20% by the late afternoon hours.

A low pressure center will be sitting just off of the coast that will bring showers throughout the morning hours on Saturday to the track. However, the activity looks to move out of the area by the midday hours and skies will gradually start to clear out. 8 am temperature will be around 50 degrees and will only warm to around 61 degrees for the high. Winds will be breezy at times out of the west to southwest at 5-10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain during the morning will be around 60%, but drops from less than 20% to 0% through the afternoon hours.

Much nicer and calmer weather can be expected on Sunday. Skies will be mostly sunny, and it will start off a little chilly, with temperatures around 41 degrees at 8 am. It will warm to around 63 degrees for the high, but winds out of the northwest to west at 5-15 mph will make it feel about a couple of degrees cooler at times. There is no chance of rain.
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Initial Forecast for SRO America at Sonoma

4/12/2022

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by Scott Martin.
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A front will be stalled out just to the north of the area that will bring clouds and a chance of showers to the track. Rain chances will be small during the morning hours, around 25%, but will increase as we get to the afternoon, from 30-40%. Temperatures will be around 47 degrees at 8 am and will top out around 60 degrees by 2 pm. Winds will be out of the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The front will move north of the area on Saturday that will bring an end to the shower chances for the afternoon and early evening hours, but there will be a likely chance of rain during the early and late morning hours. Skies will become mostly sunny by the early evening hours and rain will be over with. 8 am temperature will be around 49 degrees and will top out around 58 degrees for the afternoon high. Winds will be a little breezy at times out of the southwest at 5-10 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph possible. Rain chances will start off around 60% during the morning, but will eventually fall to less than 10% by early evening.

High pressure will be over the northern parts of the state that will bring calm and mainly sunny skies to the wine country on Sunday. We'll have a few stray clouds during the morning hours, but those will have moved out before the midday hour. Skies will be sunny and winds will be light out of the northwest to west. 8am temperature will be around 44 degrees and will warm to around 64 degrees by 3 pm.
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Initial Forecast for the Australian Grand Prix

4/5/2022

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By: Harris Cooley
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After our week long break, we are heading to Melbourne for the Australian GP. The weather is se to be warm and sunny as a large High pressure system is sitting in the Tasman Sea and will be keeping moisture levels low. Wind speeds will be light for Friday and Saturday with a slight increase as the pressure gradient tightens over the area. The race will be during the day, so track temperatures will be something to monitor as ambient temperatures will be warm.

Rain chances are near none as the High will keep storms out of the area. The mornings will start sunny and calm with the afternoons being a bit cloudier and windier due to convection. Overall, the weather should not be a massive factor in the outcome of this race as conditions will be manageable across the board. A metric graphic is pasted below...
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First forecast for the Grand Prix of Long Beach

4/5/2022

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By Doug Schneider
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The weather at the Grand Prix of Long Beach will be tied to the direction of the winds through the weekend. At the start of activities on Friday, winds will be coming from the north, and this offshore direction will result in hot temperatures, with highs around 90 degrees. The pattern shifts on Friday night, as winds will turn to a southerly onshore direction. This will bring low level moisture to the area, and result in morning fog development. It will mean cooler temperatures on Saturday, with highs in the mid 70s. This onshore flow continues into Sunday, producing another day of morning fog and cooler temperatures around 70 in the afternoon. 
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