By Doug Schneider

As expected, showers and thunderstorms came through Mid-Ohio yesterday afternoon, and PWC had to cancel their GT practice and GTS Race 1. I think we'll see a similar situation today. The atmosphere over Ohio remains very moist, and there is an area of low pressure at the surface that is sitting over western Ohio, with a boundary extending east across northern Ohio. 

There is some sunshine at the track this morning, which will help create some instability for showers and thunderstorms to tap into this afternoon. The most likely time for storms at the track will be between 2 and 6 pm, so I think the sessions that could be affected are IndyCar qualifying, Indy Lights Race 1, PWC GT Race 1, and Pro Mazda Race 2. 

The low pressure area will be drifting east through the day, and should be over Pennsylvania tonight.  However, there will still be an upper level disturbance that will be moving through on Sunday, which will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. It looks like areas north of the track will have the better chances of rain on Sunday, but I can't rule out an isolated shower getting near the track in the afternoon. Most of Sunday will be dry with partly cloudy skies, so I'm not too concerned about rain affecting Sunday's races. 

By Doug Schneider

The forecast is coming into better focus today, Unfortunately, the chances of rain are looking higher for both Friday and Saturday. I've raised the chance of rain at the track to 60% both days. On Friday, a front will be sitting across central Ohio, while a low pressure area begins to develop along the boundary over Indiana. It looks like the best chance of rain on Friday will be late in the afternoon and evening, so the majority of on-track activity may get by without being affected by rain. Pirelli World Challenge GTS has Race 1 at 5 pm, which could potentially have wet conditions. 

On Saturday, the front and the low pressure area don't move much at all, which will keep a good chance of showers and thunderstorms at the track. Rain may be possible at any time of the day, but it looks like the best chances and the most rain will come in the afternoon. This could potentially impact IndyCar qualifying, Indy Lights Race 1, PWC GT/GTA/GT Cup Race 1, and Pro Mazda Race 2.  

The low pressure system finally starts to track east on Sunday. I think the majority of racing on Sunday will be dry, but I can't rule out at least a small chance of showers and thunderstorms as the low will continue to be close to Ohio. There should be more sunshine on Sunday than the other days. However, this sunshine could create some instability that could result in afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing.

The total amount of rainfall expected at Mid-Ohio from Friday through Sunday is between an half inch and one inch. 

If you're going to be at the track this weekend, stay aware of the weather and have a plan for finding shelter when you hear thunder. You can use the radar link at the top of our website for the latest radar image and lightning strikes.

By Doug Schneider

​I mentioned in my last post that I had low confidence in the forecast. Usually, my confidence increases as we get closer to the race weekend. But this week, that is not the case. I still don't feel very confident about this forecast. The difficulty is that there is expected to be a boundary that lingers across Ohio for nearly the entire weekend, and where this boundary sets up will determine how much rain may or may not fall at Mid-Ohio. If the boundary ends up across southern Ohio or Kentucky, then there may not be much rain at all at the track. If it is farther north, near or north of Columbus, then there could be quite a bit of rain. It is not clear exactly where this boundary will be, but since it is expected to be somewhere nearby, I have to carry at least a chance of rain every day in the latest forecast. On the bright side, the rain chances are still fairly low - a 30% chance of rain also means a 70% chance of no rain. The weekend won't be a complete washout. 

On Thursday, there will likely be a lot of rain across eastern Kentcuky, southwest Ohio, and West Virginia as a low pressure system develops in that area. Mid-Ohio is on the northern fringes of that rain area, so it will be right on the line of rain or no rain. There is some model agreement that there will be least some chance of rain, so I did bump up the probability of precipitation that day from my previous forecast.

That low pressure system will be well to the east by Friday, but there will be a boundary or weak front that is stalled across Ohio. This boundary, along with an upper level disturbance, will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Again, the amount of rain that falls will depend on where that boundary is located. I think rain amounts between a tenth and a quarter inch are the most likely scenario right now for Friday.

Saturday continues to be a big question mark. One model shows a low pressure system developing over Illinois, and tracking east across Ohio on Saturday. This scenario dumps a lot of rain over Mid-Ohio. However, no other model shows this happening, so I'm skeptical. I am going to keep the rain chance at 30% for now, given this uncertainty. 

With that pesky boundary still across Ohio, and a broad trough in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, I have to keep a chance of rain into Sunday. I just can't rule out that there could be some scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms around in this unsettled pattern.

I'm sure this forecast will change again, so stay tuned for updates.

By Doug Schneider

IndyCar, Pirelli World Challenge, and all three of the Mazda Road To Indy series will be in action this weekend at the beautiful Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course near Lexington, Ohio. While my forecast has a chance of rain on three of the four days, note that the chance of rain is very low on Thursday and Saturday, and Sunday looks dry right now. There is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, because the models are not in good agreement on the weather pattern. I expect that there will be some changes to this forecast over the next few days as the weather pattern comes into better focus. 

I believe that most meteorologists would get frustrated, or just downright mad, at blowing a forecast. Especially when there was a setup for the possibility for severe weather. I am so glad that my forecast was blown. Areas near the track had thunderstorms, some of which did reach severe criteria, but thank goodness they all missed Lime Rock Park.

Since that has now passed the area, Saturday's forecast for the IMSA WeatherTech SportsCar Championship and the Continental Tire SportsCar Championship events will be just simply awesome. Mostly sunny to sunny skies with afternoon highs reaching the low 90s. As the dew points are expected to be in the low 60s, the heat index will top out just above the high. Winds will be breezy out of the northwest at 10-15 MPH. Chance of rain will be zero.

It will still be a pretty warm day out there at the track. Utilize the available shade that is out there, sunscreen up, and stay hydrated. Have a great race day!