By Doug Schneider

Every year around Le Mans, I always hear the phrase, "It always rains at Le Mans". Well, this year will be the exception. There are some isolated showers around the track on Wednesday, but dry weather is expected for the rest of the event. Every day will be mostly sunny, with comfortable temperatures and light winds as a large high pressure system extends over northern France. It doesn't get any better than this for weather at Le Mans.

The changes to this forecast from my previous forecast were pretty minor, with only small downward changes to temperatures, and the slight chance of rain Sunday has been removed. 

By Doug Schneider

The weather looks great for this year's edition of the 24 Hours of Le Mans. 

A cold front will be moving through northern France on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, which will result in showers around Le Mans. Most of these showers will occur in the morning, with conditions improving through the day. If some showers do linger later in the day, I expect that they will be light and impacts will be minimal. 

Behind the front, high pressure will build over northern France and provide nice weather through Saturday at least. Temperatures will be very comfortable, with a warming trend through the week. 

The high pressure ridge weakens a little on Sunday, which may allow for a few showers to develop on Sunday, mainly in the afternoon. This is still a way out, so there is still some uncertainty about the rain chance, but it appears to be low at this time, with no significant impacts expected.

Check back for updates through the week. 

By Doug Schneider

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The forecast for Le Mans has been really tough this year, as the models have been flip-flopping regarding the timing of a low pressure system that will cross northern France and England. The good news is that they seem to be coming into better agreement, and showing better consistency. The most likely time period for showers at the track appears to be from late afternoon on Saturday into the evening. There could still be some light showers or sprinkles that continue overnight and into Sunday morning, but those should be light. Bottom line, I think the biggest potential impacts from rain could be around the start of the race. Temperatures will be on the cool side due to the extensive cloud cover from this system and behind it on Saturday and Sunday. 

by Doug Schneider

​Click images to enlarge

The models have taken a pretty big shift over the past few days, and are now showing a good chance of rain during the race.

The days leading up to the race should have good weather for practice, qualifying, and support races. Temperatures will be comfortable for Wednesday through Friday, gradually climbing from the lower to mid 70s F to lower 80s F, under partly cloudy skies each day. 

There is agreement among the models that a low pressure system will track from the northern Atlantic to the English Channel over the weekend. This should bring a chance of rain to Le Mans starting late Saturday afternoon. The system will be slow-moving, so the chance of rain will continue Saturday night and Sunday. At this time, it is nearly impossible to pin down the timing more precisely than that. Timing should become more clear later in the week. Temperatures should be warm at the start of the race Saturday afternoon, then become cooler on Sunday behind a cold front.

By Doug Schneider

Click on forecast graphics to enlarge

The weather for Le Mans looks great this year. A few showers are possible on Thursday, and while the race day is still a week away, it appears that the weather pattern will favor a dry race. 

Temperatures are very hot right now across France as a large high pressure system is in control of the weather. But that will change in a few days as a cold front is expected to cross northern France on Monday, followed by cooler temperatures. Behind the front on Wednesday, expect mostly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 70s F, or mid 20s C. 

Models differ on the chance of rain for Thursday. Some show a completely dry day, while other show a disturbance in the mid and upper levels crossing northern France. I think there is enough of a chance of the later scenario that I needed to include a small chance of showers on Thursday. But the impact looks small if showers do occur, as it is a weak and fast-moving trough. 

A ridge of high pressure is expected to build over the western Atlantic on Friday, and continue to build east into Spain and France over the weekend. It will provide dry conditions and warming temperatures, with highs peaking on Sunday in the upper 80s F, or lower 30s C. 

I'll be away for a few days, so my next planned update will be on Tuesday. 

By Doug Schneider

Rain showers will start to spread into the Le Mans area beginning tonight. Periods of showers are likely to continue through Saturday as a low pressure system sits over the Bay of Biscay. The most likely period for showers on Saturday will be in the afternoon and evening, during the opening hours of the race. There could be around a quarter of an inch (around 6 mm) of rain that falls on Saturday. 

Saturday night should have a lower chance of showers in the area. Coverage will be more scattered, and showers will be lighter. The threat of thunderstorms will also diminish. Scattered showers will continue around northern France through Sunday, and there may be some breaks in the clouds that allow some sun to briefly shine through. 

I will be travelling on vacation with family tomorrow, so I won't be able to post radar updates as I usually do. I recommend this site to monitor radar - https://www.meteo60.fr/radars-precipitations-pluie-france.php

By Doug Schneider

Not much has changed in the forecast for Le Mans with the latest data. Some things have come into better focus, such as the timing of the best chance of rain and potential rainfall amounts. 

High pressure over the British Isles will keep conditions dry and mild at Le Mans on Thursday, with mostly sunny skies. Clouds will start to increase a little on Friday as the high pressure system moves east and a low pressure system off the northwest coast of Spain approaches. As this low moves into the Bay of Biscay, it will start to bring a chance of rain into northern France, beginning Friday night. There is good agreement between the models that the center of the low will be just off the west coast of France on Saturday, sitting nearly stationary through the day. Shower and thunderstorms will be numerous across eastern and northern France all day, but the most likely time for showers to occur at the track will be in the late afternoon and evening - near the start time of the race. The rain could be briefly heavy if a storm moves directly over the track, with a quarter to a half inch of rain possible (6-12 mm). There could be a possibility of a caution period or a stoppage if the heavy rain and lightning occurs. 

The threat of showers will drop Saturday night, but it won't completely go away. There may be some scattered showers lingering around overnight and into Sunday morning. The chance of rain on Sunday looks lower than Saturday as the low pressure system is expected to weaken and drift southeast. Any showers on Sunday should be lighter as well, so the impact on the racing is expected to be less. 

By Doug Schneider

Warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies are expected at Le Mans through most of this week, but as we approach the weekend, the chance of rain still start to increase, and there's a good chance of seeing rain at some point during the race.

A large high pressure system will be drifting east from England to Scandinavia from Wednesday through Friday, providing dry weather and warm temperatures across northern France. A low pressure system will be tracking east across the Atlantic, and be located somewhere near the Bay of Biscay by the end of the week. This low pressure system will spread increasing moisture into France over the weekend. The chance of rain is a bit uncertain this far out, and it will depend on the exact position of this low, which isn't yet clear. If it tracks farther south as some models suggest, there will be a lower chance of rain. A more northerly position of the low will increase the rain chances. In this forecast, I have taken a middle ground, with rain chances in the 40-50% range. This may go up or down with later forecast updates, so check back through the week.