By Doug Schneider Today will be a beautiful day at Sebring to take in qualifying and the CTSC race. High pressure will be stretching from just off the North Carolina coast across northern Florida, providing plenty of sunshine all day. Temperatures will be pretty chilly to start the day, only around 40 degrees at sunrise. It will warm up quickly however, and reach the mid 70s by this afternoon. The high pressure ridge won't move very much, just shifting slightly southward, so dry and sunny weather will continue through Saturday too. Highs will be getting warmer, reaching near 80 degrees. By the end of the race Saturday night, temperatures will drop to around 60 degrees, with an overnight low in the lower 50s.
By Doug Schneider The weather continues to look ideal for racing during the 12 Hours of Sebring weekend. Today's forecast update looks very similar to the forecast I posted on Sunday, and my confidence that the event will be dry remains high. Sebring has been known to have some pretty crazy weather in the past - either monsoon downpours or extreme heat and humidity - but that will not be the case this year.
Wednesday will be a little breezy as a cold front exits and high pressure builds in from the north. The north wind will also keep temperatures quite cool, only reaching the mid to upper 60s. Sunshine will prevail through the rest of the event, with a gradual warming trend each day. Daytime humidity levels will be very comfortable as well, as the air mass associated with the high pressure area will be very dry. Because of the dry air, overnight low temperatures will be quite chilly for those who are camping, with lows expected to be in the 40s each morning. Not a bad forecast throughout the week, but still not perfect. By Scott Martin - @RaceWx4You As you can see by the graphic above, there is a lot of green on the spreadsheet. That means that I was able to correctly forecast the weather conditions with a degree or two, and correctly forecast the rain chances. As for the temperatures on Saturday that were so far off, this time I believe I can blame underperforming forecast models. Both forecast models that I used underestimated the warm air that was able to flow in ahead of the approaching system on Sunday. With a combination of mostly clear skies, temperatures made it into the mid 80s. But I feel good about that because nearly every other trusted weather source that I compare my forecast to also had temperatures at least 5 degrees cooler as well. No one thought it would be 80 degrees or warmer.
I think most people would agree that the yellow showing up for Sunday's rain chances is a great thing. I had a gut feeling throughout the week we would have some rain at or around St. Petersburg on Sunday, but I thought at least some drops would fall. The racing action was able to compete with dry conditions, and fans didn't have to worry about how to stay dry. Good news is that the showers all developed well inland over the Florida Peninsula, and had no worries at all about rain approaching. I believe most would agree with me that this forecast went pretty well. I am okay with missing the precipitation forecast for Sunday because of the uncertainty to where showers would develop. I don't feel too bad about the temperature miss for Saturday, because everyone missed it due to underperforming models. I will always strive to be better with every forecast that I do, not only with Racecast Weather, but in my day job as well. It's almost impossible to have a perfect forecast, but that is what we try to do. By Doug Schneider The weather looks like it will be absolutely perfect for racing at Sebring late this week - much better than last year's rain-affected race. Not only will it be dry the entire event, the temperatures will be very comfortable during the day, with low humidity. It will be a little chilly overnight for those camping out, with overnight lows in the 40s.
Is there a chance that we may see teams use rain tires at some point tomorrow? Have an umbrella ready just in case. By Scott Martin - @RaceWx4You A weak short wave impulse along with an additional low-level moisture flow into the area should allow for a few scattered showers to form at or near the event, mainly during the afternoon hours. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day, and temperatures will be held back a few degrees from where they topped out on Saturday. 8AM temperatures will start off near 70 degrees and only rise into the mid to upper 70s.
I'm keeping rain chances at 30%, and I believe that the rain will hold off until after the races have completed. If any rain does fall, it will only amount to less than 1/10th of an inch. Lightning will not be an issue as there will not be enough instability to support that. Just have an umbrella handy if one of these showers do move over the event. If rain does occur, I still believe that there will be only a small impact, and maybe not enough for rain tires. I'm hoping for that, and I'm crossing my fingers and toes that the rain stays away. Radar will be fired up and going on our website and on the St. Petersburg Event Page on the Pirelli World Challenge website. Just click on the link beneath our logo. I'll also have updates throughout the day on our @RacecastWx Twitter feed and my personal feed as well. |
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Doug Schneider, Scott Martin, and Stephen McCoy are race fans and meteorologists dedicated to providing accurate forecasts and timely weather updates at racing venues around the world. We forecast for IndyCar, Indy Lights, Pro Mazda, USF2000, IMSA, Blancpain World Challenge America, and World Endurance Championship, as well as major SCCA and NASA events. Categories
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