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Track weather safety and the looming disaster

4/30/2015

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By Doug Schneider

If you are at a race track, and hazardous weather is approaching, do you know what action to take? If you are caught outside in a thunderstorm and no adequate shelter is readily available, what would you do?

I've been thinking about these questions for the past few days since attending the Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama at Barber Motorsports Park. On Saturday afternoon, thunderstorms were approaching the track, and the notice to seek shelter was announced and displayed on the screens around the track. 

A couple weeks ago, I wrote a post to point out the inaccurate use of the term "severe" weather in IndyCar's notice for fans to seek shelter at NOLA Motorsports Park. At both NOLA and Barber, the approaching storms were in no way "severe" by the NWS definition - the hazard with the thunderstorms in both events was lightning, and lightning does not make a thunderstorm severe. The notifications to seek shelter in both events were headlined with "severe weather advisory", which is misleading, and in my opinion, irresponsible. But I did notice an improvement with the statement below the headline at the Barber event (left) compared the the one used at NOLA (right):
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It may seem like a small difference, but the use of "potentially hazardous weather" was more appropriate to the situation than "severe weather". It's an improvement that is good to see, but the "severe weather" headline is still misleading. What happens with a real, genuine severe thunderstorm is approaching the track? Will it say, "Severe weather is approaching, and this time, we really mean it!"? By using exaggerated and inaccurate wording, the "severe" headline is conditioning people to not take real severe weather seriously. Please don't misunderstand what I'm saying - while lightning does not make a thunderstorm severe by definition, lightning is certainly very dangerous and should be taken seriously, and any calls to seek shelter from lightning should be heeded immediately. A more appropriate headline in both events would have been "Dangerous lightning advisory", or "Hazardous weather advisory".

At Barber, when the "severe weather advisory" was announced, I was in a hospitality tent in the Fan Zone area. We were told to head for the nearby tram stop to get to our car, as there was no sturdy shelter nearby. Of course, all the other fans in the Fan Zone headed to the same tram stop, and this was the result:
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As you can see, the tram stop created a large crowd of people huddled closely together near an area of trees along a small ridge. There was also a pond nearby. This is a terrible place to be when lightning is approaching. There was a flash of lightning in the distance moments after I took this picture, but thankfully, it was still pretty far away. I did hear the thunder, and when thunder can be heard, lightning may be getting close enough to strike you. While being in a car is a safe place to be during lightning, getting to our car required at least 20 to 30 minutes of being exposed, whether we took the tram or walked. I counted four lightning strikes before we were able to reach our car, one of which was less than a mile away. The advice that was given in the announcement to seek shelter was inadequate for those of us who were in the Fan Zone on the backstretch, as all of the suggested shelter locations were at least a 15 minute walk away and the main parking lot was on the other side of the track. I felt like the call to evacuate put us into a more dangerous situation than if we had stayed where we were at the hospitality tent. 

Barber is not alone in lacking adequate shelter for fans. In fact, it is probably better than most tracks since the museum can accommodate a large crowd. Of the other tracks I've been to, I can't think of a sturdy shelter that would provide protection for a large number of fans from lightning, much less from a severe thunderstorm or a tornado. It is amazing that there hasn't been a major weather-related disaster at a track with a large number of race fans being injured or killed. It is only a matter of time before that happens.

So what is the solution to this problem? How can this looming disaster be averted? Aside from race tracks spending a ton of money to build shelters big enough to contain hundreds or thousands of fans, the only solution is that fans stay aware of the weather while at the track, and know what actions to take when hazardous weather threatens. Taking the right action still won't guarantee safety, but it will significantly increase the odds of staying safe. 

The best option when a thunderstorm is approaching is to find the nearest substantial building, or in an enclosed, metal-topped vehicle with the windows up. As soon as thunder is heard, lightning is seen, or the call to seek shelter is announced, you should immediately move to shelter. You may not have much time before the storm is on top of you. You should stay in the shelter for 30 minutes after the last sound of thunder is heard.

If lightning is occurring nearby and you don't have time to get to a building, you are NEVER safe. But here's what you should do (or avoid doing) to reduce your risk:
  • Immediately get off elevated areas such as hills, mountain ridges or peaks
  • Avoid open fields
  • Never lie flat on the ground
  • Never shelter under an isolated tree
  • Immediately get out and away from ponds, lakes and other bodies of water
  • Stay away from objects that conduct electricity (barbed wire fences, power lines, windmills, etc.)
  • If you are in a group, spread out to avoid the current traveling between group members.
  • If you are camping in an open area, set up camp in a valley, ravine or other low area. Remember, a tent offers NO protection from lighting.

Herding people together into a group at a tram stop near trees and water is certainly not a good lightning safety practice. Neither is sending them to walk across an open field where their cars are parked. 

Is there a better alternative? Honestly, I don't know what could have been done differently. Ultimately, it is not the track's responsibility to keep people safe - it is the responsibility of each individual to make the right choices and take appropriate action when threatening weather approaches. Hopefully the next time you're at the track when lightning is imminent and you find yourself without shelter, you will remember the proper actions to take listed above.

For more information about lightning and lightning safety tips, visit lightningsafety.noaa.gov. 
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Wednesday forecast update: Monterey Grand Prix

4/29/2015

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By Doug Schneider
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There hasn't been too much change in the forecast thinking since the last post, but I did make a few small tweaks. Friday is still expected to be warm, with highs in the mid 70s. It looks like the westerly onshore flow is going to develop a little earlier, and this may bring some clouds off the ocean into Laguna Seca Friday night and Saturday morning. This should not have much impact on events. Temperatures will be cooler with the onshore flow, with highs in the mid and upper 60s on Saturday and Sunday. There is still some potential for low clouds and fog on Sunday morning, but it's hard to tell at this point how thick the fog might be and if it will have any impact on racing events. If you're at the track, you'll probably want to bring a jacket as it will be chilly each morning, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s.
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Forecast for Monterey Grand Prix

4/27/2015

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By Doug Schneider
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For the second consecutive race, the TUDOR United Sportscar Championship will have another weekend of beautiful weather. 

The event will start with warm temperatures in the mid to upper 70s on Thursday and Friday as the wind will be offshore, from the northeast. On Saturday, the wind will shift more to an onshore flow, and this will bring cooler temperatures. Morning lows will be chilly, in the mid 40s, with highs Saturday and Sunday in the mid to upper 60s. Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca is located in a valley, which tends to be very susceptible to fog development when there is an onshore flow. Some fog is possible on Sunday morning, but it's still a little too far out in the forecast to be very confident about it.

I'll have updates through the week on the Racecast Weather Twitter account and Facebook page, as well as my personal Twitter account, @Race4caster.
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Saturday Update for HIGPA at Barber

4/25/2015

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By Scott Martin
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For today, the morning storms have worked over the atmosphere pretty well, so the threat for severe weather is a little less than what it was. The SPC has placed nearly the whole state of Alabama under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather today. Thunderstorms will begin to pop up after 2pm today, but they will be isolated in coverage. The storms that pop could quickly become strong to severe, as the atmosphere will have recovered enough for that to happen. Strong winds and hail are the main threat, but cannot rule out an isolated tornado or two somewhere in the state today. Doug and I will be at the track and will have our eyes on the radar. Follow our Twitter feeds to stay up to date with the conditions.
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Thursday Forecast Update for HIGPA at Barber

4/23/2015

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Race time is getting closer, and we are starting to get a better look at the weather details for the weekend. Looks like for now, Saturday will be the only day you will need an umbrella.

FRIDAY

Looks like the day might actually be a pretty decent day after all. Latest model trends are showing temps in the lower 70s with partly cloudy skies. There may be an isolated shower that pops up during the afternoon as the warm front starts to make its way north through the state, but I highly doubt it. I'll still keep the chance of rain at 20%, just to be on the safe side. The main action doesn't start to move in until the overnight hours.

SATURDAY
To start off, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, has the whole state under a slight risk for severe weather throughout the whole day. There will actually be two separate severe weather threats for the area. One will be moving through sometime between 2:00AM - 4:00AM. The main threat from these early storms will probably be damaging straight line winds and small hail. After those move through, there will be a good part of the day that will be dry and sunny at times. Unfortunately sunny conditions in this environmental setup is not a good thing. Daytime heating will allow for the atmosphere to get unstable, as highs are now expected to reach the lower to middle 80s. Cells could fire up at anytime during the afternoon and evening hours and may become severe quickly. Models are showing a trend of higher instability during the afternoon, especially surface based CAPE and wind shear values. All modes of severe weather is possible: damaging straight line winds, damaging hail, and a few isolated tornadoes are not out of the question. I'm thinking that rain is almost a certain bet, but I'll say the chance of rain is 80%. The best thing to do is not be scared of the weather, but have a source of weather information close by. Both Doug and I will be at Barber and will be tweeting any information concerning the weather. If you're at the track, be sure to find a shelter area before you find a place to sit and enjoy the races.

SUNDAY
Once the action moves out during the late night hours, the day is going to be fantastic. Skies will be mostly clear and temps will be in the upper 70s. Should be a great day for racing, just as long as someone doesn't slide off the track in the grass.

Our radar link is http://RacecastWx.Weebly.com/radar. It will have the latest up-to-date radar image, along with any severe weather warnings that are issued. Once again, I hope that this forecast is a bust and there is no threat during Saturday afternoon. There is one possibility. If the action during the early morning hours on Saturday work over the atmosphere enough, it may not recover enough to produce severe weather in the afternoon. Lets keep our fingers crossed.
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Wednesday Forecast Update for HIGPA at Barber

4/22/2015

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By Scott Martin
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If you are attending the Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama at Barber Motorsports Park this weekend, you will need to be weather aware… especially on Saturday.

On Thursday, there is a slight chance for rain and thunderstorms before the morning ends as a frontal boundary will be making its way across the state. Once it pushes to the south of the area, rain chances drop and drier air will filter in behind it. As of right now, the latest run of the NAM is not showing very much rain for Alabama for the day, so lets hope that is true. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies during with a 20% chance of rain. Highs will be in the lower 70s.

There is a threat for severe weather for late Friday night and into a good part of the day on Saturday for the Birmingham area. A warm front will start to move northward bringing widespread storms during the evening and overnight hours on Friday. Rain chances will start to creep up after 12PM, but the main threat or rain will come after 8PM. The threat for severe weather during the overnight hours is low, but it is not zero. Highs will reach the lower 70s. Chance of rain is 20% before noon, and increases to 40% afterwords.

On Saturday, an upper trough associated with an upper low over Missouri and a moist, unstable airmass will be in place over Alabama. The sun will come out at times so it won’t be a total washout, but showers and thunderstorms could hit at anytime as well. All of the forecast models are showing a possibility for severe storms (strong damaging winds, severe hail, and  isolated tornadoes). With surface based cape values above 2000 j/kg and storm relative helicity values over 300 m2/s2, that enough instability for rotating updrafts. Looks like the main threat for severe weather will start around 7AM and last through 10PM. By then, hopefully the threat for severe weather would have passed to the east of the area. Doug and I will be at the track, so it looks like it will be a busy day for the both of us. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s.

After singing “Couldn’t Stand The Weather” by Stevie Ray Vaughn a few times, Sunday is going to be an absolutely perfect day for racing at Barber. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s.

We will have our live radar going for Barber on the blog, and we’ll have frequent updates on our Twitter feeds if severe weather does break out on Saturday. It is April in Alabama, so we are smack dab in the middle of severe weather season here. I hope this forecast is blown out of the water and there is hardly a drop of rain during the whole weekend. I, certainly, would love to be wrong.
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Forecast for Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama

4/21/2015

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By Scott Martin
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THURSDAY
A frontal boundary approaches the area on late Wednesday night through Thursday as an upper level impulse moves eastward over the southeastern states. This will cause a chance of precipitation to increase for the morning till about noon on Thursday. I can’t rule out a stray shower after that, but chances are slim. Highs will be in the lower 70s. Chance of rain is 40%. Winds out of the N to NE at 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY
Day should start off partly cloudy and dry for the early morning time. A surface low develops and moves into the Mississippi Valley, causing the frontal boundary to move back to the north as a warm front. As that happens, a low level jet will develop to the west of the area. This should set up an increase in showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon through the evening and overnight hours. Highs will reach the lower 70s. Chance of rain is 50%. Winds out of the E to SE at 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY
As the surface low will still be to the north and west of the area, rain and thunderstorm chances are still in the forecast for Saturday morning. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, and instability values are starting to show on models. Surface CAPE is showing values over 2000 j/kg. Still too early to determine what types of severe, if any. I believe the stronger stuff moves out during the afternoon and we will be left with partly to mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of a lingering shower or thunderstorm. Highs will top out in the upper 70s. Chance of rain is 60%. Winds out of the S shifting to W at 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY
Skies clear out as the surface low moves away for Sunday. Expecting mostly sunny skies and near perfect temperatures for late April in Alabama. Highs make the middle 70s. No chance of rain. Winds out of the N to NW at 5-10 MPH.

For updates to the forecast through the week, follow our Facebook page and Twitter accounts (@Race4caster and @RacecastWx). We will both be at Barber this weekend, and we would love to meet you.
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Race day weather for the Grand Prix of Long Beach

4/19/2015

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By Doug Schneider
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A cloudy start to the day is expected at Long Beach. There may be a little patchy fog around early, but I don't expect that it should cause any problems. A low stratus cloud deck is expected to linger into the morning hours, then gradually break up through the late morning. By the early afternoon, it should be a really nice day once again. Skies will be sunny, with temperatures rising to around 70.
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