By: Stephen McCoy
Conditions for this weekend at Watkins Glen have remained mostly as expected, with a shift of precipitation from Friday to Saturday. A surface low pressure system located off the Atlantic coast will cause winds to be largely from the south to southeast on Friday, bringing moisture off the ocean and resulting in mostly cloudy to overcast conditions. The increased moisture may also cause a slight chance for isolated showers in the region, especially in the afternoon. On Saturday, a cold front extending south from a surface low located over Canada is expected to move through the region, bringing a higher chance for precipitation during the afternoon. Winds behind the front will shift to the west to northwest, cooling temperatures into Sunday with cloud cover decreasing through the day as drier air moves in.
By: Stephen McCoy
Mixed conditions will start the event off on Friday and will improve as the weekend progresses.
Around mid-week, a low pressure system will move eastwards over Canada to the north of the region. This system will bring a cold front through the area with a high percentage of rainfall and a drop in temperatures expected Wednesday into Thursday. A second low will take a similar route as the first during the early part of the weekend with its warm front moving northward through New England Thursday into Friday morning. This will allow temperatures to warm again into the upper 70's, which will remain largely consistent through the next few days. Of note: the National Hurricane Center has identified a disturbance in the Atlantic which has a 50% chance to develop into a tropical system within the next 5 days. Current model guidance suggests the system will curve along the east coast before moving out into the northern Atlantic. This has been brought up as its location at the beginning of the weekend will bring moisture from the Atlantic to the region, resulting in a chance for scattered showers through the day, especially during the afternoon. As mentioned, conditions will improve for the remainder of the weekend as the low and potential tropical system move further eastward. Winds shifting to the west/northwest on Sunday will bring slightly cooler temperatures and clearer conditions. Saturated air at the surface and a temperature inversion just above the surface will result in a potential for fog for both Saturday and Sunday morning.
by Scott Martin
After a very busy past two weeks for me covering severe weather, flooding, and the passage of Tropical Storm Fred through the southeastern US, I finally can post a forecast discussion for the races that I am covering this weekend. I apologize to the Indycar fans who stop by our site for the forecasts, as those were limited to Facebook and Twitter posts due to the amount of coverage I was taking part in with my day job. Here is what I have for you for this weekend's World Challenge action at Road America.
On Friday, a warm front will be working its way northward to the southern part of Wisconsin that will keep an already unstable atmosphere active as there will be plenty of heavy showers and storms that will already be moving through the northern half of Wisconsin. For the track, scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible during the morning and into the start of the afternoon hours, but rain chances will drop to a small chance by the mid-afternoon hours. Skies will be mostly cloudy throughout the day, with the afternoon high maxing out in the mid-70s. Rain chances will be around 50% to start the day, but will eventually fall to around 30% by the mid-afternoon hours. Winds will be out of the southeast at 5-15 mph.
The good news is the coverage in the scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be less on Saturday, even though we'll be in-between a warm front to the north and a cold front to the west. The overall rain chance will be maxed out around 40% mainly during the morning hours, but becoming a little less likely during the afternoon to early evening hours. Skies will be partly cloudy, with afternoon highs topping out in the lower 80s. Winds will be out of the south at 5-10 mph.
The cold front will get closer to the area on Sunday, and it will keep the overall shower and thunderstorm chances around 40%, mainly during the afternoon hours, but we can't rule out a passing shower before that. Skies will be partly cloudy and afternoon highs will max out in the lower 80s. Winds will be out of the southwest at 5-10 mph.
By Doug Schneider
Today, some scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in Middle Tennessee. There is only a slight chance of one of the showers passing over the downtown area, so I have the chance at 20% with a low impact. A dry day is more likely. With mostly cloudy skies today, temperatures will peak in the mid 80s.
More sunshine is expected Saturday and Sunday, which will bring afternoon temperatures into the 90s. With a high pressure ridge building over the area Saturday, showers are unlikely.
I'll be a the race starting this afternoon, and I'll try to post weather updates on Twitter if necessary. Follow @RacecastWx.
By Doug Schneider
I expect that the weather will cooperate for the inaugural Music City Grand Prix in Nashville, Tennessee. No rain is expected at this time, and although temperatures will be warm, the humidity won't be oppressively high. For Nashville in early August, it looks pretty good.
Through much of the middle portion of the week, there will be a broad upper level trough over the eastern U.S. with a few small troughs that ride around the larger trough. The main impact of this trough for Middle Tennessee will be to push the deep moisture east of the Appalachian Mountains, and keep temperatures fairly cool in Nashville. A secondary trough passage will occur on Friday, but there will be a lack of moisture that makes the chance of rain very low. Friday will have some partial cloud cover, and there is one model that generates some rain, but at this time I think a dry day is most likely.
Nashville will be on the west side of the trough on Saturday, which will keep dry weather and mostly sunny skies in the forecast. With a high pressure ridge slowly building in, temperatures will trend upward into the lower 90s by Sunday. Humidity levels will be rising too, but dewpoints are expected to be in the upper 60s to near 70, which could be much worse for this time of year in Nashville. The normal high for Nashville this time of year is around 91, so we should see highs in that neighborhood.
I'll be attending the race this weekend. As a resident of Tennessee, it's exciting to have a race in my home state!
By Scott Martin
Friday will start off with mostly cloudy skies with a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the mid-morning hours. The good news is that rain chances will begin to decrease throughout the remainder of the day once we reach the late morning hours. Skies will become partly cloudy during the afternoon and there will remain a smaller chance of a passing shower or storm. The temperature will start off around 65 degrees at 7 am and warm up to around 82 degrees for the daytime high. Winds will be mostly out of the southwest at 2-6 mph. Rain chances will start off around 60% and will drop to around 30% by the end of on-track activity. Dewpoints will be in the 64-67 degree range.
Saturday and Sunday will be a much different story weather-wise as we'll have plenty of sunshine and a good bit of warmth. Temperatures will start off around 64 on Saturday at 7 am and warm up to around 86 degrees. There will be very little wind and the direction will be variable, mainly out of the west and south at times. Sunday will be warmer as the daytime high will make it up to around 88 degrees with winds out of the south to southwest at 2-6 mph. Dewpoints on Saturday will be in the 63-67 degree range, and in the 65-69 degree range on Sunday.
Be sure to have plenty of fluids to drink as the heat index on Sunday will get to 90 degrees or just over. Also be sure to wear sunscreen (and reapply every couple of hours), hats, and shades.
By: Stephen McCoy
Today's update brings a major shift in conditions from the initial forecast on Monday. The models from earlier in the week were indicating that an upper level trough, which is driving the current activity in the South Central US, would continue eastward into the southeast US and into the Atlantic to round out the week. However, in the following days, the models have trended towards a shortwave trough breaking off from the current longwave trough and centering itself over Texas/Mexico. The trough will extend into the lower levels of the atmosphere, where winds from the south/southwest will bring plenty of moisture to the region. The result is likely chances for rainfall, especially overnight Friday into Saturday.
Friday and Saturday will see cooler temperatures through the day after a cold front passes through the region on Thursday. Surface winds behind the front will largely be from the north on Friday, but will begin shifting to the east/northeast as an area of high pressure moves in over the Arklatex region. Low level winds from the east/southeast will bring in moisture off the Gulf, causing mostly cloudy to overcast skies through the day. These conditions are expected to persist into Saturday, along with an increased chance for precipitation.
A slight chance for lingering showers is possible Sunday morning, but as the upper level trough begins moving eastward, drier conditions will move in. Partly cloudy skies will be present for much of the day after sunrise with temperatures at their highest of the weekend due to surface winds largely from the south.
By: Stephen McCoy
After a bit of a wet period during the middle of the week, we can look forward to a warm, dry weekend in Austin.
A cold front is expected to move through the southern US Wednesday into Thursday, bringing with it a chance for thunderstorms, with some of them severe; the NWS Storm Prediction Center currently gives a Marginal Risk (category 1 of 5) for this time period. Behind the front, high pressure will begin to build at the surface from the west, with winds largely from the north for Friday. These winds will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region compared to earlier in the week. With surface and low level winds from the same direction, some stronger gusts can be expected, most likely in the afternoon. Winds from the north in the mid-to-upper levels will bring in drier air, resulting in mostly sunny to clear conditions for the day.
As the surface high pressure moves over the southern US, winds will begin to shift from the north to the south/southeast, causing temperatures to begin warming for the remaining part of the weekend. Much like Friday, winds will be from the north in the upper levels on Saturday, though more southwesterly winds will set in for Sunday, causing a bit of upper level cloud cover during the day.