For today, storms will stay south of the track and skies will be on a clearing trend throughout the day. Winds will be quite breezy at times averaging 10-15 MPH out of the southwest to west with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. Afternoon highs will top out around 82 degrees.

Carb Day looks to be a fantastic and warm day at IMS as skies will start off mostly cloudy, but those clouds will be on the decrease throughout the day. Winds will be out of the west to start but will shift out of the south at 5-10 MPH by the afternoon hours. The afternoon high should top out around 84 degrees. There may be a shower that passes over the track well before the activity starts for the day, but the chances of that happening is really small at this point.

On Saturday, the morning hours should be just fine for the autograph session and the public drivers meeting for Firestone Legends Day. Temperatures will start off in the mid-70s for the beginning of the activities and quickly warm up to the lower 80s by the end of the drivers meeting. It will be breezy at times with winds averaging 10-15 MPH out of the southwest with gusts up to 25 MPH possible at times. After that, clouds increase during the afternoon hours and there will be a small chance of a scattered afternoon to early evening shower or thunderstorm. The afternoon high will top out around 86 degrees. Chance of rain is only 30%.

Sunday will be a day that will feature mostly cloudy skies throughout the day with a very small chance of a shower during the morning hours and into the early afternoon hours, but with the heating of the day, those rain chances will ramp up to around 50% after 2:00 pm. Thunderstorms should be scattered in nature, but there could be just enough organization that there may be a ragged line of storms that move through. It is still just too far out for the higher resolution models to give us a solution. Winds will be out of the southwest and will shift out of the west averaging 5-10 MPH but gusts up to 20 MPH are possible at times. The afternoon high should top out around 80 degrees.

Radar is up and running on the site.

With a strong ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States, plenty of warm air along will be pumped into the Central Indiana area. The bad news about that is any storm systems out west that will move eastward will be forced northward and across the northern half of the eastern United States, including Central Indiana.

At this point, any rain activity looks to be scattered in nature and there is only a small chance on each day of this forecast with the exception of Carb Day, which will feature plenty of sunshine and very warm temperatures. The heat index will be approaching and exceeding 90 degrees on each day, so be sure to stay hydrated if out at the track. Winds will be breezy on each day mainly out of the southwest but we could see some gusts up to 20-25 MPH.

Radar is up and running for the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, so please feel free to take a look at anytime. Just remember that on a mobile device it is better to view it in desktop mode on your browser. I'll have updates throughout the week.

By: Stephen McCoy

Not a large number of changes in the forecast in this update, though there is a slight shift in timing for precipitation chances for the rest of the weekend. Recent model output has shown the potential for rain now mainly overnight Saturday instead of during the day as the warm front approaches the region. Like I mentioned in my previous forecast, winds from the east to southeast ahead of the front will continue to bring in slightly cooler air for the day. Conditions for Saturday will be mostly cloudy to overcast, with a mix of clouds between the low and upper levels.

Sunday's forecast is mostly the same, though a slight chance for isolated showers is possible around mid-day as warm, moist air moves in at the surface. There is still a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms after track activities have concluded for the day as a cold front approaches the region from the west.

By Doug Schneider

The forecast graphic for Indy 500 qualifying hasn't changed much from yesterday, but some of the finer details are coming into better focus today, so I wanted to get an update out with what I'm thinking will happen on Sunday. 

As I mentioned yesterday, one scenario was that there would be two rounds of showers and storms on Sunday. I think that this is going to be the scenario that plays out. However, it's not all bad news!

I expect that a round of showers will move through central Indiana Sunday morning. These showers will be the remains of dying storms overnight that will move in from the west. This round will likely not be heavy, and while there may be some lightning possible with it, I don't think lightning will be frequent or widespread enough to be a big issue at the Speedway. There may be around a tenth of an inch of rain with this round of showers. The most likely time for these showers to occur will be between 9 am and noon. This may interfere with the morning practice sessions. It is possible that the decaying showers could die completely before reaching the Speedway. However, I think it is likely that there will be some rain occurring in the mid to late morning.

The second round is expected to be more significant than the first. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe storms for central Indiana on Sunday afternoon, which means a 15% chance of severe storms in any location.  

If severe storms occur at the Speedway, damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning will be the main threats. Everyone at the track will need to stay weather aware on Sunday, and find shelter inside a building (I recommend the Museum!) when the PA system announces that storms are in the area. 

The big question with this second round is timing. The two qualifying sessions are scheduled to be held from 12:15 to 2:15 pm EDT. I expect that the second round will arrive after 2 pm at the very earliest, and more likely after 4 pm. If the first round doesn't drop too much rain and track drying does not cause too much of a delay, I think that qualifying can be completed. I do think that the practice session scheduled from 3:15 to 6:00 pm will be interrupted. The storms will move through quickly but they could dump some heavy rain in a very short time, possibly a quarter to a half inch. Again, strong winds and lightning will pose a real threat, so take any calls for action seriously.

I have changed the Impact to Moderate with a yellow flag, meaning that there may be some delays and possibly cancellations to the practice sessions, but qualifying should be able to get in as scheduled if the timing plays out as expected.

Of course, the weather doesn't always do what we expect, so we'll hope for the best and watch how it develops. I won't be able to provide regular radar updates on Sunday until the mid afternoon, but you can use our radar link at the top of the page to keep up with the weather.

By Doug Schneider

My concern for weather impacts on Sunday's qualifying sessions is rising as we get closer to the weekend. Rain is likely to occur on Sunday, although there are some details about timing, duration, and amounts that are still unclear. 

Saturday continues to look nice, with plenty of sunshine expected all day. A breezy southwest wind will supply warm temperatures at the Speedway, with afternoon highs reaching the mid 80s. Winds will be the biggest factor for Saturday, as they will be blowing between 10 and 20 mph, and gusting up to 25 mph at times. 

Models are in good agreement that there will be rain at some point on Sunday. I'm confident that there will be rain at some point, however I am less confident on how long that rain will last and how much will fall. Both of these factors will decide how much time will be available to qualify on Sunday.

The GFS model shows the most optimistic scenario of a single line of storms quickly moving through around late morning to early afternoon, with amounts between a tenth to a quarter inch. If this occurs, there may be delays for track drying, but there should be enough time to get qualifying done on Sunday.

The worst case scenario is shown by the NAM, which brings an area of showers through in the morning, then another round of stronger storms in the afternoon, with total rain amounts over 1 inch. If this scenario pans out, I expect qualifying to be moved to Monday. There is too much uncertainty to say which scenario will happen at this time. 

I'll have another update either Friday night or Saturday morning. Hopefully the models will reverse their wet trend and I can bring better news.