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Long term weather outlook for Florida through March

12/29/2017

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By Doug Schneider - @Race4caster

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The start of the 2018 racing season is almost here! The seasons for IMSA, NASCAR, Trans Am, Pirelli World Challenge, and IndyCar all open in the state of Florida during January, February, and March. So I decided to take a look at what the long term weather outlook is for those months. 

A couple years ago, I wrote a post about long term weather forecasting, and I encourage you to take a look at that to get a better idea of what goes into making a long term forecast, and what the limitations are. It's foolhardy to try and pinpoint specific details about the weather more than 10 days in advance, but it is possible to predict the general weather pattern and the likelihood of temperature and precipitation being above or below normal. The Climate Prediction Center has forecasters that make monthly and seasonal forecasts, and I will be using their forecasts here. 

One important factor in making a long term forecast is to know what the ENSO cycle will do. What's ENSO, you ask? It stands for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (for more information about it, see this post). Whether there is an El Niño or a La Niña in the Pacific will have an impact on the dominant position of the jet stream, which impacts the weather pattern across North America. Currently, La Niña conditions are observed in the Pacific, which is expected to persist through the winter. 

What does that mean for Florida? Typically, La Niña conditions produce warmer-than-normal temperatures and drier-than-normal conditions across Florida during the winter:
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As a result of the La Niña conditions likely continuing through March, the forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center are expecting temperatures above normal (left image) and precipitation below normal (right image) for Florida in the Jan-Feb-Mar time frame (click it to big it):
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The color scales at the bottom of the images are essentially confidence levels. So for example, the more confident the forecaster is that below normal precipitation will occur for those three months, the higher the probability on the color scale (darker brown). Daytona is the the 40-50% probability area for above normal temperatures, and in the 50-60% probability area for below normal precipitation.

Here's another way to think of it. There are three equal possibilities - conditions near normal, above normal, or below normal. So this is what the forecast above looks like visualized as a pie chart for Daytona:
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 - Visually, that makes more sense to me. Of the three possible outcomes, the most likely is that temperatures will be above normal (42% chance), and precipitation will be below normal (59% chance). 

While this forecast is no guarantee of warm and dry race weekends, I'd say it is good news for race fans who plan to attend these events in Florida. Keep in mind that this forecast covers a period of three months, and the five race weekends (Rolex 24, Daytona 500, TA at Sebring, 12 Hours of Sebring, GP of St. Pete) are only 10 days out of 90. So those 10 days could all be cold and rainy, while the other 80 days could be warm and dry, and the long term forecast for Jan-Feb-Mar would still be accurate. But there would be a lot of unhappy race fans.

We'll have the detailed forecasts for these races (except the Daytona 500 - we leave that to @NASCAR_WXMAN) posted here at RacecastWeather.com a week before the race is run. You can see our entire schedule of race forecasts at the 2018 Schedule link at the top of the website, and be sure to follow all of our social media feeds - we're on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. 
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Saturday AM Forecast Update For Thunderhill

12/2/2017

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By Scott Martin - ​@RaceWx4You
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Looks like the forecast is holding pretty close to what I posted yesterday, so here is a breakdown of what you can expect through the start of the day today through the end of the race at noon on Sunday...

SATURDAY

9AM - Mostly cloudy 50ºF. Winds W 2-5 MPH.

11AM - Mostly Cloudy 54ºF. Winds ESE 2-5 MPH. (Green Flag)

1PM - Mostly Cloudy 58ºF. Winds SE 5-10 MPH.

4PM - Mostly Cloudy, 10% Rain Chance. 56ºF. Winds SSE 6-12 MPH.

7PM - Mostly Cloudy, 20% Rain Chance. 53ºF. Winds S 5-10 MPH.

10PM - Mostly Cloudy 50ºF. Winds SW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY

12AM - Mostly Cloudy 48ºF. Winds SW 5-10 MPH.

3AM - Mostly Cloudy 46ºF. Winds WSW 5-10 MPH.

6AM - Mostly Cloudy 41ºF. Winds WSW 5-10 MPH.

9AM - Partly Cloudy 45ºF. Winds SW 5-10 MPH.

12PM - Mostly Sunny 53ºF. Winds NE 3-7 MPH. (Checkered Flag)

For the remainder of the daylight hours on Sunday for post-race activities, skies will continue to be mostly sunny and temperatures will rise to around 56 for the high, before steadily dropping into the upper 40s by 6PM. Radar is up and running on our website (if using a mobile device, view site as desktop for best performance). Good luck to all of the teams and officials, and have a great Saturday!
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Friday AM Forecast Update For Thunderhill

12/1/2017

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By Scott Martin - ​@RaceWx4You
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The forecast continues to improve for the USAF 25 Hours of Thunderhill as rain chances continue to drop and skies appear to be more sunny than first thought.

For the rest of the day today, skies will be mostly sunny and the high will reach around 61 degrees. Temperatures will drop into the upper 50s for the start of qualifying and gradually fall into the mid-50s by the end. Late tonight, clouds will be on the increase but will remain dry through the end of the day.

Saturday will start off with temperatures around 50 degrees at 9AM and gradually warming to around 55 degrees at the drop of the green flag. Skies will be mostly cloudy throughout the entire day, but we will have a very small chance of a passing shower or two starting late in the afternoon and lasting through the late evening hours. Rain chances will only be around 20%. All rain activity should be out of the area by 10PM. The daytime high will top out around 58 degrees, steadily dropping to around 51 degrees at 8PM, and bottoming out around 43 degrees at 6AM on Sunday morning.

On Sunday, skies will begin to clear out and will be mostly sunny by late morning. 9AM temperature will be around 45 degrees and will warm to around 53 degrees at the drop of the checkered flag.

Radar will be up and running in a few minutes. Have a great Friday!
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