By: Stephen McCoy

Much like Doug mentioned in his initial forecast for this event last year, this area can prove tricky to forecast for since conditions can vary greatly in a relatively small area. This forecast in the graphic is for the start line at the bottom of the hill climb. Conditions (namely temperatures) will likely be much cooler at the peak than shown in the graphic.

Overall conditions for the weekend will be partly to mostly cloudy with most clouds concentrated in the upper levels on Saturday and in the (relative) low and upper levels on Sunday. The cloud cover will come as a result of moisture from the southwest as a longwave upper level trough slowly approaches from the west. A stationary area of low pressure at the surface is expected to the east of Colorado Springs, in the leeward side of the Rocky Mountains on Sunday This low will cause winds from the east to northeast over the region. Orographic lifting will allow air at the surface to rise and condense as it moves vertically up the mountain range. The addition of daytime heating will result in a chance of showers with thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon.

By Doug Schneider

High pressure over the Pennsylvania and upstate New York areas will provide nice weather as practice sessions begin on Thursday at Watkins Glen International. That should continue for most of Friday as well, but there are some models that are developing some pop-up showers late in the day. I'm not very confident that this will happen or have any impact on the racing, so I'm keeping the rain icon out of the graphic for now. The chance of rain during the day on Friday is less than 20%. 

On Saturday a cold front will be approaching the area from the north, which will bring a better chance of showers. The timing is too uncertain to pinpoint this far out, but the coverage of showers appears to be scattered at this time, so I do not expect it to be a persistent all-day rain - passing on/off showers are more likely. The impact on the racing should be low, which means that all scheduled events should be able to be completed. 

The front should be through the area by Sunday morning, but there will still be an upper level trough over the region. Under this trough, there could be some light showers in the Watkins Glen area, but most of the activity should stay to the east, near Albany. I'm uncertain enough about the location of the showers that I am putting in a 20% chance of rain, but I don't think it will have an impact. Temperatures will be cooler and winds will be stronger on Sunday. 

​Check back through the week for updates to the forecast.

By: Stephen McCoy

Race day conditions remain as forecast in previous updates for the ADAC TOTAL 24 Hours of Nürburgring. One thing to note is that the high temperature for Saturday will be in the low 20's C, or upper 60's F. The high temperature is expected around 4-5 PM local time and is not featured in the graphic. According to timeanddate.com moon-rise will be at 1:07 AM, being visible for a few hours before sunrise on Sunday.

By: Stephen McCoy

As was expected from the previous forecast update, Saturday's chance for showers has gone to the wayside and a dry weekend awaits at the ADAC TOTAL 24 Hours of Nürburgring.

The weather pattern for Friday will have a surface high pressure system centered over the northwest of France as it tracks to the northeast towards Scandinavia. The anti-cyclonic rotation around the high will cause surface winds from the west to northeast. Upper level winds from the southwest will bring some moisture to the region in the morning ahead of the axis of a shortwave trough, resulting in some cloudy conditions early. However, after the center of the axis passes through, upper level winds will shift to the northwest with cooler, drier air approaching. Low level winds from the west to northwest are expected to transport low amounts of moisture off the English Channel, resulting in partly cloudy conditions in the afternoon. Daytime heating from less cloud cover will result in temperatures slightly warmer than those seen on Thursday.

In the last forecast update, I mentioned a low pressure system forming off the west coast of Italy. The models are now in agreement that the system will track eastward, instead of north or northeastward. Because of this, any precipitation with the system will stay mostly concentrated over Switzerland and northern Italy, with some showers in southern Germany. However, enough moisture will be around the system to where mostly cloudy conditions will be likely for most of Saturday, concentrated mostly in the lower levels. As the low moves towards eastern Europe, cloud cover will begin to decrease with clear conditions eventually occurring overnight. The aforementioned high pressure system is anticipated over the Benelux region during the day which will cause winds from the north overnight and into the morning and northeast for the rest of the day. Winds moving over land in the afternoon will result in warmer temperatures. Some windier conditions are possible during the day as low level winds will be from the same direction as the surface winds.

On Sunday, the high pressure system, now located over Scandinavia, will force winds from the east to northeast over the region. The surface winds will bring warmer air to the region as the land warms quickly during the day. This, coupled with low amount of cloud cover during the day, will make Sunday the warmest day of the weekend. Windier conditions are possible again as winds in the low levels are from the same direction as at the surface.

By: Stephen McCoy

Precipitation remains in the forecast for Thursday with a chance for showers in the afternoon with thunderstorms possible. Friday and Saturday are relatively unchanged and Sunday's conditions have improved since the initial forecast.

A cold front from a low pressure system moving northeast towards Scandinavia will pass through the region Wednesday afternoon to overnight; rain and thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front as convective atmospheric potential energy (CAPE) values approach 1500 J/kg. After the front passes, surface winds will remain from the west to southwest while low level winds continue from the southwest. Saturated air in the low levels will lead to mostly cloudy skies through the day and eventually showers in the afternoon with thunderstorms possible.

Much like the initial forecast, Friday's conditions will be dry with partly to mostly cloudy skies likely through the day as high pressure begins to build in over the region from the west. On Saturday, the high pressure system will move to the north of the region, shifting winds to the north to northeast, which will cause some slightly cooler temperatures for the day. Model output has shown a surface low pressure system forming over the Mediterranean Sea off the west coast of Italy and moving to the east to northeast during the morning. Should the low track more northward, it could bring a slight chance for scattered showers in the afternoon, however recent model runs have the system remaining to the south which will leave conditions dry at the track.

On Sunday, the aforementioned surface high will bring drier air to the region as winds shift to the east to southeast. Winds in the low levels also from the east to southeast will result in partly cloudy conditions through the morning with mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day. Less cloud cover and potentially southeasterly winds will lead to warmer conditions.