By Doug Schneider

The WEC Super Season begins this weekend at the beautiful Circuit Spa-Francorchamps in Belgium. Overall, the weather looks pretty good, but there are some caveats with that.

Forecasting for Belgium can be very tricky due to its proximity to the North Sea to the north and the Alps to the south, and southern Belgium has quite a varied terrain itself. The details of the weather conditions can vary greatly on a local scale, and I'm certainly not a local expert. Plus, the models are not in good agreement on the weather pattern. As a result, my confidence in this forecast is low.

The general pattern to start the event will be an upper level trough over the region, with a ridge of high pressure at the surface. The trough in the upper levels and a northerly wind at the surface will probably be enough to keep a good amount of cloud cover over the track on Thursday and Friday, but probably not enough to produce rain. This is where I'm uncertain - there's a very fine line between rain and no rain here, but I'm leaning the forecast toward no rain. The north wind will keep temperatures pretty chilly as well, with highs only in the mid to upper 50s F, or mid teens C. 

The upper level trough will be exiting on Saturday ,and surface winds should shift to a more easterly direction. This should allow for more sunshine and warmer temperatures on race day. Of the three days, I'm most confident in Saturday being dry. 

I expect this forecast will be changing through the week, and I plan to have the next update posted on Wednesday.

By Doug Schneider

In my first forecast for PWC's Grand Prix of Virginia at VIR, I wasn't very confident in the timing of rain chances around Friday. Now, the models have come into much better agreement, and my confidence in this forecast is higher. The upshot of this forecast is that I expect the majority of on-track activity at VIR to stay dry, which is good news for those of us who will be at the track.

On Thursday, VIR will be between an exiting storm system that is delivering some rain to the area today, and another system that will be arriving Thursday night. All indications are that the test sessions on Thursday will be run in rain-free but mostly cloudy conditions.

A low pressure system will be tracking across the Tennessee Valley region through the day, then across the Carolinas Thursday night. This system could bring quite a bit of rain to VIR Thursday night, probably around a half inch but with the potential to produce up to one inch. There may also be some thunderstorms moving through overnight. The good news is that the models are in good agreement that this system will be exiting early Friday morning, and most of the practice sessions that day should not be impacted. I have a low chance of rain and a low impact mentioned on Friday mainly due to the possibility that some of the first practice sessions of the day could be delayed a bit, and the track will likely be wet to start the day. Through the rest of the day, I can't completely rule out an isolated shower in the afternoon, but any afternoon showers will be light and brief, with no lightning expected. 

 The rest of the weekend looks to be about as good as you could hope for this time of year in Virginia. Saturday will be partly cloudy with highs in the lower 70s. A cold front is expected to move across the area Saturday evening, but it will not have enough moisture with it to produce any rain. Behind the front on Sunday, a northwest wind will bring slightly cooler temperatures, with morning lows in the mid 40s and afternoon highs close to 70. 

By Doug Schneider

The start of the week is going to be very wet for Virginia International Raceway, but conditions will be improving later in the week, and by the weekend, the weather should be ideal for racing.

A series of storm systems will bring quite a bit of rain to the area today through Wednesday, with up to two inches of rain possible during that time. For Thursday's practice sessions, it looks like the track will be between systems, so I expect that the practices can be held in dry but mostly cloudy conditions.

A low pressure system is expected be developing across the Southeast states on Thursday, and tracking across the Carolinas Thursday night and Friday, which could produce some showers at the track on Friday. The caveat with this is that the models are not in good agreement - one shows a stronger system that brings more rain, while another is weaker and much slower with the system, and produces very little rain. There is enough agreement on the general pattern that I have to mention a chance of rain on Friday, but my confidence is low right now. I expect the forecast for Friday will change through the week. One bit of good news is that I do not expect thunderstorms to develop with this system. 

As of today, a cold front and upper level trough will pass through the area on Friday night, with high pressure building in on Saturday. This should bring really nice weather to VIR for the weekend. Temperatures will be cooler than normal for late April, with highs around 70 on Saturday and the lower 70s on Sunday. I'm more confident about the forecast for Saturday and Sunday, as the models are in better agreement and have been fairly consistent about dry weather those days.

I'll be attending the race and providing weather support for the track during the event, so I'll be keeping a close eye on the forecast through the week. Stay tuned for updates.

Thanks to Joseph Bierschbach for providing us with his beautiful photos for our forecast graphics. Check out his work at redcasephotography.com.

Rain has plagued Barber Motorsports Park throughout the day on Sunday and it is now to the point where the track is unrecoverable for the day and rainfall is still occurring. The Verizon Indycar Series race control has made the decision to stop the race after 22 laps of the scheduled 90.

As of the weather station located on the roof of the race control building, we have received almost 0.40 inches of rain throughout the day so far (as of 5:00 PM).

Looking at the forecast for Monday, we’ll have mostly cloudy skies once again at the track with a chance of a passing shower or two. The good news is that rain chances are much less than today, but high enough that rain tires may be needed again. Forecast models are varying on the rainfall for Monday… from none at all by the NAM, to a very small amount by the GFS, to a higher risk of rain by the European. At this point, we’ll go with 50/50 odds.

The temperature to start off the day will be in the upper 50s and the afternoon high will top out in the upper 60s. Winds will be out of the south-southwest at 5-10MPH. If any rain falls at the track, it should only amount to less than 0.15 inches.

So far this morning we are staring off with scattered showers and storms to our north, and those will continue to head in a northeasterly direction. What we will have to watch for is the development of any showers or storms to our southwest.

The latest HRRR run shows a decent dry slot over the track from 9:00 AM to 11:00 AM before more scattered showers move in ahead of a large rain mass. The good news with that rain is most of it stays light to moderate throughout the afternoon until you get around 2:00 PM before much heavier rainfall moves in. This is when we'll have a higher chance of thunder, but that threat still remains rather low at this point. Rainfall amounts before midday will be around 0.20 inches, but from midday to around 7:00 PM we could see up to 0.75 inches or more. We still could see delays this afternoon due to heavy rainfall.

There is no threat for severe weather today at the track, but there is a marginal risk for severe storms well off to the south. Like I said earlier, we may have some thunder. Please stay weather aware throughout the day, and heed the call from the PA if a weather alert is announced at the track. A good rule of thumb to remember... if you can hear thunder, you're close enough to the storm to be struck by lightning.

Another issue that we'll have to worry about is higher winds. NWS Birmingham has a Wind Advisory that will go into effect this afternoon at 1:00 PM for the area and will expire at 4:00 AM Monday. Winds will be averaging 15-25 MPH during that time with gusts up to 35 MPH. We could see gusts up to 40 MPH on top of the hills above the paddock area since the wind will be stronger in higher elevations.

So let's cross our fingers and hope that we can catch a break so we wouldn't have to wait until Monday to get the race in. The good news is that if we do have to wait until Monday, the forecast is much better with only a chance of showers from the back side of the system.

Radar will be up and running throughout the day on RacecastWeather.com.