By Doug Schneider - @Race4caster

​The start of the 2018 racing season is almost here! The seasons for IMSA, NASCAR, Trans Am, Pirelli World Challenge, and IndyCar all open in the state of Florida during January, February, and March. So I decided to take a look at what the long term weather outlook is for those months. 

A couple years ago, I wrote a post about long term weather forecasting, and I encourage you to take a look at that to get a better idea of what goes into making a long term forecast, and what the limitations are. It's foolhardy to try and pinpoint specific details about the weather more than 10 days in advance, but it is possible to predict the general weather pattern and the likelihood of temperature and precipitation being above or below normal. The Climate Prediction Center has forecasters that make monthly and seasonal forecasts, and I will be using their forecasts here. 

One important factor in making a long term forecast is to know what the ENSO cycle will do. What's ENSO, you ask? It stands for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (for more information about it, see this post). Whether there is an El Niño or a La Niña in the Pacific will have an impact on the dominant position of the jet stream, which impacts the weather pattern across North America. Currently, La Niña conditions are observed in the Pacific, which is expected to persist through the winter. 

What does that mean for Florida? Typically, La Niña conditions produce warmer-than-normal temperatures and drier-than-normal conditions across Florida during the winter:

As a result of the La Niña conditions likely continuing through March, the forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center are expecting temperatures above normal (left image) and precipitation below normal (right image) for Florida in the Jan-Feb-Mar time frame (click it to big it):

The color scales at the bottom of the images are essentially confidence levels. So for example, the more confident the forecaster is that below normal precipitation will occur for those three months, the higher the probability on the color scale (darker brown). Daytona is the the 40-50% probability area for above normal temperatures, and in the 50-60% probability area for below normal precipitation.

Here's another way to think of it. There are three equal possibilities - conditions near normal, above normal, or below normal. So this is what the forecast above looks like visualized as a pie chart for Daytona:

 - Visually, that makes more sense to me. Of the three possible outcomes, the most likely is that temperatures will be above normal (42% chance), and precipitation will be below normal (59% chance). 

While this forecast is no guarantee of warm and dry race weekends, I'd say it is good news for race fans who plan to attend these events in Florida. Keep in mind that this forecast covers a period of three months, and the five race weekends (Rolex 24, Daytona 500, TA at Sebring, 12 Hours of Sebring, GP of St. Pete) are only 10 days out of 90. So those 10 days could all be cold and rainy, while the other 80 days could be warm and dry, and the long term forecast for Jan-Feb-Mar would still be accurate. But there would be a lot of unhappy race fans.

We'll have the detailed forecasts for these races (except the Daytona 500 - we leave that to @NASCAR_WXMAN) posted here at RacecastWeather.com a week before the race is run. You can see our entire schedule of race forecasts at the 2018 Schedule link at the top of the website, and be sure to follow all of our social media feeds - we're on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. 

By Scott Martin - ​@RaceWx4You

The weekend forecast for Road America at this point doesn't look too bad, but we may have to put up with a little wet stuff at some points throughout the event. Believe it or not, the tropical system that is affecting the Gulf Coast is messing with the forecast, so some of the details are not set in stone as of yet. I'll nail those down within the next day or two.

There is a surface boundary that is forecast to stall out over the Wisconsin/Illinois border, and this may bring showers and thunderstorms to the area on Thursday, especially during the afternoon hours. There is a possibility that the weather on Wednesday could make the storms form farther to the south on Thursday, we'll just have to wait and see on that part. By Friday, all of the shower activity will have moved out of the area, and the day is setting up to be nice and dry with mild temperatures.

We'll have a slightly active weather pattern setting back up over the area for Saturday as troughing starts to form and begins to move near the area. This will allow several waves to move through the area, but as of now, rain chances will be small and mainly during the afternoon hours. Same story on Sunday, but rain chances will be even smaller, and I wouldn't be surprised if I will be able to remove those rain chances out of the forecast within the next day or two.

Bottom line: We'll mention the chance of rain on both Saturday and Sunday, but more than likely it will stay dry at the track. I'll have a really good idea by Wednesday night on what the weather will hold for us at Road America.

So sorry for the forecast coming out so late this week. I have been preparing for the annual NWA meeting in Norfolk, Virginia, along with helping out with coordinating the WeatherReady Fest that will be taking place on Saturday at the Nauticus Science Center on the waterfront.

As far as the forecast, things could be better for racing at Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca. Nice and cool temperatures are expected throughout the mostly sunny weekend. No rain is expected, and the only issue will be patchy morning fog each day, which should dissipate by 10AM. Highs will be in the upper 60s to 70 degrees, with early morning lows near 50 degrees.

By Doug Schneider

Watkins Glen will have a beautiful day for racing, with sunny skies all day and temperatures peaking in the upper 70s. There's not much else to say about the weather, so enjoy the race.

By Doug Schneider

I'm breathing a big sigh of relief today, as the latest forecast for Hurricane Hermine takes it farther east than yesterday's forecast, keeping it offshore on Sunday, far away from Watkins Glen. Here's the latest NHC forecast track:

With Hermine expected to take a more eastern path, and with the models in good agreement with this path, I feel comfortable going back to a dry forecast today. A cold front moved through the area last night, and behind it, high pressure will settle over upstate New York. It should be a beautiful weekend at Watkins Glen, with plenty of sunshine and highs each day in the 70s. Hermine may add a little cloud cover on Sunday, but that should be its only impact.