A series of storm systems will bring quite a bit of rain to the area today through Wednesday, with up to two inches of rain possible during that time. For Thursday's practice sessions, it looks like the track will be between systems, so I expect that the practices can be held in dry but mostly cloudy conditions.
A low pressure system is expected be developing across the Southeast states on Thursday, and tracking across the Carolinas Thursday night and Friday, which could produce some showers at the track on Friday. The caveat with this is that the models are not in good agreement - one shows a stronger system that brings more rain, while another is weaker and much slower with the system, and produces very little rain. There is enough agreement on the general pattern that I have to mention a chance of rain on Friday, but my confidence is low right now. I expect the forecast for Friday will change through the week. One bit of good news is that I do not expect thunderstorms to develop with this system.
As of today, a cold front and upper level trough will pass through the area on Friday night, with high pressure building in on Saturday. This should bring really nice weather to VIR for the weekend. Temperatures will be cooler than normal for late April, with highs around 70 on Saturday and the lower 70s on Sunday. I'm more confident about the forecast for Saturday and Sunday, as the models are in better agreement and have been fairly consistent about dry weather those days.
I'll be attending the race and providing weather support for the track during the event, so I'll be keeping a close eye on the forecast through the week. Stay tuned for updates.
Thanks to Joseph Biedschbach for providing us with his beautiful photos for our forecast graphics. Check out his work at redcasephotography.com.