By Doug Schneider

The main change to the forecast today has been to add a slight chance of showers on Friday evening. It looks like there will be enough instability developing late in the day on Friday, along with a weak trough ahead of the main cold front that will allow for some showers to develop in the area. This may result in some rain during the WEC race, which ends at midnight. The chance of any rain is still quite low, only 20%, and if there is any rain, I expect it will be light. This is why I kept the impact as a green flag - it should not be enough to interrupt the action, and it may not even require rain tires. 

A cold front is still on track to cross the area on Saturday, which will bring a better chance of rain. The best chance of rain appears be mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours, although I can't completely rule out a shower at any time. The amount of rain still does not look especially heavy, and will most likely be in the range of a tenth ot a quarter inch. Still, there is some potential for up to a half inch through the afternoon and evening if multiple heavy showers pass over the raceway. I think this is unlikely though, and the race should be able to continue through any rain showers. 

By Doug Schneider

Not much has changed in the forecast for Super Sebring weekend, but my confidence in the forecast is increasing and some details are coming into better focus as the models have remained consistent regarding a cold frontal passage that could bring some scattered showers to Sebring Raceway during the 12 Hours.

High pressure from the surface through the midlevels of the atmosphere will provide nice weather for Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will be warm each afternoon but the humidity levels will be comfortable. Winds will be shifting from the east on Wednesday to southeast on Thursday to southerly on Friday as the surface high pressure center tracks east. 

A cold front is still on track to pass through central Florida on Saturday, and with it will come a chance of showers. The time period of potential showers looks to be from noon through the end of the race. But it will not be raining that entire time period. As I mentioned in my last post, this does not look like a prolonged moderate to heavy rain like what occurred at Daytona at all. The coverage of showers appears to be more scattered, which means that it is possible that the track could avoid seeing any rain at all. If a shower does pass over the track, it should not last for a very long time - the on/off nature of the showers should allow for any standing water on the track to run off.

While forecasting rain amounts this far out is difficult, my best estimate for rain amounts at this time is in the neighborhood of a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. Again, it is very possible that no rain falls at the track, which is why I have the chance of rain at 50% in the forecast. It is also possible that multiple showers cross over the track repeatedly and dump up to a half inch of rain. But as of today, I think the tenth to a quarter inch range is the most likely scenario.

Stay tuned for more updates over the next few days as we get into the time period where some higher resolution models can help provide more details on the timing and amounts of rain on Saturday.

By Doug Schneider

#SuperSebring weekend should be an awesome event as IMSA and WEC join up at the classic track. It looks like the weather will cooperate for most of the event, but it is possible that the 12 Hours on Saturday could see some light rain. 

A large high pressure area at the surface will be over the southeast as the event opens on Wednesday. In the upper levels there will be a high pressure ridge extending from the Caribbean across Florida and along the U.S. coastline. The surface high and the upper ridge will gradually shift eastward through Thursday and Friday. This pattern will provide sunny and warm conditions each day, with highs in the mid to upper 80s F, or upper 20s to lower 30s C. 

The eastward shift of the high and ridge will allow for increasing moisture and a cold front to move into Florida from the northwest on Saturday. As this front pushes south, it will help generate some scattered showers around the Sebring area. Timing of showers is uncertain this far out, but the afternoon hours appear more likely to have a chance of rain than the morning. The front is expected to be south of the track in the afternoon, which will shift winds to a northeasterly direction. Moisture aloft will continue to ride up and over this front Saturday night, and may keep some showers in the area. 

The good news is that this does not appear anything like what we saw at Daytona. The shower coverage is expected to be more scattered rather than a constant rain, and it does not look like heavy rain will occur. Things can certainly change this far out, but I have been watching the models for several days now, and they have not changed much from one run to the next. This gives me more confidence that this forecast will generally hold up through the week. 

By Doug Schneider

Rain is still on track to affect the Six Hours of Shanghai. The time period when the greatest rain is expected to occur is in the late morning through early afternoon hours, between 10 am and 2 pm. The rain may be heavy enough during that time to cause some delays to the race. After that time, the rain should tend to become lighter. The total amount of rain expected through the race is about a half inch (13 mm). 

By Doug Schneider

The weather pattern across eastern China this weekend will be a wet one that will not change much from one day to the next, which means that rain will be a factor in the racing each day.

A front is expected to stall near the Shanghai area on Thursday. Moist air spreading from south to north will run up and over this front. A steady rain will start on Thursday night and continue through Friday. The upper level flow will be from west to east, parallel to the front, so the front will not move much over the weekend. It may drift slightly south, but that should have little impact on the weather, as rain will likely continue into Saturday, and probably into Sunday. One positive aspect of this forecast is that the rain does not appear to be heavy. I expect it will be a steady, persistent light rain that will produce about a quarter to half an inch  (6 to 13 mm) each day. As a result, I have a Low impact each day, meaning that rain tires will be needed and there may be some delays to the action, but I do not expect the rain to be heavy enough to cause cancellations. 

That's how the forecast looks today, and I plan to have the next update posted on Wednesday, unless there is a big change in the models before then.