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Friday Forecast Update for IndyCar Doubleheader at TMS

4/30/2021

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By Scott Martin
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​SATURDAY
It looks like there is a drastic change to be made to the forecast as an active pattern has set up over portions of the Lone Star State and into the southeastern US. A surface low has set up shop over the southern portions of Texas that will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area on Saturday and Saturday evening. Here is what I have for Saturday’s forecast:
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Simulated radar valid at 12 pm CDT Saturday.
Practice 1 (11:30 am to 1:00 pm CDT):  There may be a chance for this session to stay dry as showers look to have not made it far enough north on this latest model run. Unfortunately, the activity will be moving northward and will eventually make it to the track. If it does stay dry, skies will be mostly cloudy to completely overcast with winds out of the southeast at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible. It will be around 68 degrees to start the session and rise to around 70 degrees by the end. Dewpoints will be in the mid-60s. Chance of rain will be around 50%.
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Simulated radar valid at 4 pm CDT Saturday.
Qualifying (3:00 pm to 4:00 pm CDT):  As we look ahead to qualifying, the rainfall looks to be starting to move into the area and showers and thunderstorms may begin just before or during the session. Activity continues to look to be scattered at this point, so there is a chance that it may stay dry through the end of the session. However, rain chances will have climbed to over 60% with lightning possible. The temperatures will be hovering around or in between 70 and 72 degrees and winds will continue to be breezy out of the southeast at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible. Dewpoints will be in the mid-60s.
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Simulated radar valid at 7 pm CDT Saturday.
Genesys 300 (6:30 pm to 8:45 pm CDT):  As we get to race time, the shower and thunderstorm activity continues to be scattered in nature and will continue to be moving northward across the area; however, coverage of the rainfall will be dissipating somewhat. Unfortunately, there is no racing in the rain on an oval. Rain chances will start off around 70% but will slowly drop to around 60% by the end of the allotted time to complete the race. Lightning will be likely with the activity. The temperature will hover around 68 degrees throughout and winds will actually start to slowly decrease from 10-15 mph to 5-10 mph out of the southeast. Dewpoints will remain in the mid-60s.
SUNDAY
Fortunately, Sunday looks to be a much better day at the track as the latest model runs have the rain out of the area by the time we get to the afternoon and evening hours. Here is what I have for Sunday’s forecast:

Qualifying (3:00 pm to 4:00 pm CDT):  Skies will be clearing out, and we should have a decent bit of sunshine. Temperatures will be around 80 degrees throughout the session with winds out of the south at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Dewpoints will be rising throughout the rest of the day, but will remain in the mid-60sfor this session.

Xpel 375 (4:10 pm to 6:15 pm CDT):  Skies will continue the clearing process and will be mostly sunny as we start to head toward sunset. It will continue to stay around 80 degrees throughout the race and winds will continue to be out of the south at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Dewpoints will be in the upper 60s.

Radar will be up and running throughout the weekend, just click on the radar tab at the top of the page.
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Update for the Portugal Grand Prix

4/29/2021

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By: Harris Cooley
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The forecast has cleared up for us heading into this weekend. Chances of rain have cleared out with higher pressures keeping wind speeds steady ranging from light to moderate. There could be some slightly gusty conditions over the next few days due to the High, but should not cause any drastic hinderances. Race day on Sunday presents very favorable conditions with hardly any cloud cover allowing for the cars tires' to retain their heat a little bit better. This has been an issue in the past races as Bahrain was very cool and windy and Imola was rainy, so these drivers have yet to compete in favorable conditions.

This should make for a great weekend to test out the new 'sprint' qualifying format that has been introduced. Many people are still split on whether they like this change or not, but we should get a good taste of what we can expect in the future with these conditions this weekend. I will continue to keep the forecast updated with any changes and a metric graphic is displayed below.
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Wednesday update for GT World Challenge America at COTA

4/28/2021

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By: Stephen McCoy
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Today's update brings a major shift in conditions from the initial forecast on Monday. The models from earlier in the week were indicating that an upper level trough, which is driving the current activity in the South Central US, would continue eastward into the southeast US and into the Atlantic to round out the week. However, in the following days, the models have trended towards a shortwave trough breaking off from the current longwave trough and centering itself over Texas/Mexico. The trough will extend into the lower levels of the atmosphere, where winds from the south/southwest will bring plenty of moisture to the region. The result is likely chances for rainfall, especially overnight Friday into Saturday.

Friday and Saturday will see cooler temperatures through the day after a cold front passes through the region on Thursday. Surface winds behind the front will largely be from the north on Friday, but will begin shifting to the east/northeast as an area of high pressure moves in over the Arklatex region. Low level winds from the east/southeast will bring in moisture off the Gulf, causing mostly cloudy to overcast skies through the day. These conditions are expected to persist into Saturday, along with an increased chance for precipitation.

A slight chance for lingering showers is possible Sunday morning, but as the upper level trough begins moving eastward, drier conditions will move in. Partly cloudy skies will be present for much of the day after sunrise with temperatures at their highest of the weekend due to surface winds largely from the south.
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Forecast for This Weekend’s NTT IndyCar Series Action at Texas Motor Speedway

4/27/2021

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By Scott Martin
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SATURDAY
The weather will be very nice in the Lone Star State for the first day of the race weekend as  skies will be sunny throughout the daylight hours and mainly clear during the evening. Here is the breakdown of to expect for each session for day 1:

Practice 1 (11:30 am to 1:00 pm CDT): Skies will be mainly sunny with the temperature starting off around 71 degrees at the start and climbing to around 76 degrees by the end of the first session. Winds will be out of the south at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible. Dewpoints will be in the lower 50s.

Qualifying (3:00 pm to 4:00 pm CDT): Skies will be mostly sunny with only a few passing clouds and temperatures will start off around 76 degrees and may rise a degree or two before the end of qualifying. Winds will have increased to 15-20 mph out of the south and gusts up to 25 mph will continue to be possible. Dewpoints will be up in the mid-50s.

Genesys 300 (6:30 pm to 8:45 pm CDT): Mostly clear skies with any clouds out there dissipating. Temperatures will start off around 77 degrees at the drop of the green flag and dropping to around 72 degrees by the checkered flag. Winds will be out of the south to south-southeast at 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible.

SUNDAY
It will be a warmer day at the track for the 2nd and final day of the race weekend, but winds will continue to be an issue. Here is the breakdown for each session of day 2:

Qualifying (3:00 pm to 4:00 pm CDT): Skies will be mostly clear with a few clouds floating overhead, but it will be very breezy as winds will be out of the south at 20-25 mph with the potential for gusts up to 30-35 mph. It will be around 82 degrees at the start and climb to 84 degrees by the end of the session. Dewpoiints will be right around 60 degrees.

Xpel 375 (4:10 pm to 6:15 pm CDT): Not much change from qualifying to the race as the green flag will take place minutes after qualifying has completed. It will be around 84 degrees at the drop of the green flag and slowly fall to around 81 degrees by the checkered flag. Winds will continue to be out of the south at 20-25 mph with the potential for gusts up to 30-35 mph. Dewpoints will remain around 60 degrees.
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First forecast for GT World Challenge America at COTA

4/26/2021

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By: Stephen McCoy
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After a bit of a wet period during the middle of the week, we can look forward to a warm, dry weekend in Austin.

A cold front is expected to move through the southern US Wednesday into Thursday, bringing with it a chance for thunderstorms, with some of them severe; the NWS Storm Prediction Center currently gives a Marginal Risk (category 1 of 5) for this time period. Behind the front, high pressure will begin to build at the surface from the west, with winds largely from the north for Friday. These winds will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region compared to earlier in the week. With surface and low level winds from the same direction, some stronger gusts can be expected, most likely in the afternoon. Winds from the north in the mid-to-upper levels will bring in drier air, resulting in mostly sunny to clear conditions for the day.

As the surface high pressure moves over the southern US, winds will begin to shift from the north to the south/southeast, causing temperatures to begin warming for the remaining part of the weekend. Much like Friday, winds will be from the north in the upper levels on Saturday, though more southwesterly winds will set in for Sunday, causing a bit of upper level cloud cover during the day.
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First Forecast for the Portugal Grand Prix

4/26/2021

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By: Harris Cooley
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Calm conditions are expected for this weekend race in Portugal as weak, low pressures will be lingering through Sunday. We see a slight chance for showers Friday and Saturday afternoon before clearing out on Sunday. Temps will be mild with wind speeds being light in the morning and progressively gustier into the late afternoons. These gusts could reach up to 26 mph but are only expected to be sustained around 11 mph, so it will be interesting to see how these drivers' handle them.

We saw in the last race what even just a little bit of water on the track can do, so it will be quite a game-changer if we end up seeing some showers prior to the races start or even just throughout the weekend. These cool, cloudy conditions will require drivers' to keep their tyre temperatures up as well in order to gain maximum grip around the track. 

This F1 season is shaping up to be a competitive one just through two races, and we have no reason to believe why this race won't be as well. I will continue to watch the timing and likelihood of these showers and keep you all updated. A metric graphic is displayed below... 
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Saturday forecast update for the Firestone Grand Prix at St. Petersburg

4/24/2021

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By Doug Schneider
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The approach of a cold front will bring a chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm to the St. Pete area on race day. The question remains, when will the showers arrive? Different models are showing different timing. Some are as early as 6 am, while others keep showers in the area as late as 2 pm. One thing they have in common is that the showers will not last long, or be very heavy. I'm leaning my forecast toward the middle of the range of timing, so I think the window for showers will be between 8 am and noon. This could affect the morning warm-up session. The race is scheduled to start at 12:30, so it is certainly possible that the track could be wet at the start, or there could even be some lingering showers near the track at that time. 

You can use our live radar link at the top of the website to monitor the conditions Sunday morning.
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Thursday forecast update for the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg

4/22/2021

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By Doug Schneider
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Good news with today's forecast update for the Firestone Grand Prix - the chance of rain on Sunday is dropping and moving earlier in the day, with no impacts expected to the racing during the day.

Friday and Saturday should be really nice days to take in some racing action. Friday will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 80s, while Saturday will have a little more cloud cover but with highs still able to reach the mid 80s in the afternoon. Both days will be breezy, with a southeast to south wind at 10 to 20 mph, gusting to around 25 mph at times.

A cold front will be approaching the St. Pete area from the north on Saturday night, but it will be losing its punch as it moves southward. Rain showers along the front are expected to be decreasing as it moves south of the Florida Panhandle, so that by the time it reaches St. Pete, there may only be a few isolated light showers left. And if any showers can make it that far, they will probably be in the early morning hours, near sunrise. 

Bottom line, the weather looks great for racing!
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