By Doug Schneider

Each year at Racecast Weather, we collect photos through the year of our two favorite things - weather and race cars - and pick the best to be featured in a final post to close out the year. Thanks to the extremely talented photographers (and not so talented, like myself) who took these photos - credit for each pops up when you hover over each image. Click on each image to view a larger size.

Thanks for following our forecasts through 2019, and Scott, Stephen, and I hope you have a very happy Christmas season. We'll see you again on December 30 with the forecast for the Roar Before the 24 in January.

By: Stephen McCoy

Springtime conditions are in full swing in South Africa this weekend for the Kyalami 9 Hours. The race weekend will kick off with some lingering showers possible during the early morning on Thursday after showers and thunderstorms are present on Wednesday as an upper level trough moves eastward over the region. As upper level winds return to zonal flow, an area of high pressure is expected to build in at the surface, diminishing chances for precipitation during the remainder of Thursday; some moisture will remain in the lower levels, causing partly to mostly cloudy conditions.

Conditions will wane overnight with mostly clear skies anticipated for Friday morning. Warming air temperatures and dew point temperatures near 16°C (60°F) will allow CAPE values in the afternoon to approach 1000 J/kg, providing an environment for possible thunderstorm development. Similar conditions are likely for Sunday, and may bring a chance for isolated showers in the early afternoon once again.

By: Stephen McCoy

The start of the TOTAL 24 Hours of Spa currently looks to have the largest chance for precipitation for the race. A few outlier models indicate that precipitation may start in the morning, however model consensus supports the idea of the main showers beginning in the early afternoon during the build-up to the green flag. CAPE values for the start of the race are projected between 500-800 J/kg, which speaking from an American viewpoint is a small amount, however from a European standpoint it could be a moderate amount and enough to kick of thunderstorms in the mid-to-late afternoon. As Sunday approaches, thunderstorm potential should decrease as the convective energy will be used up by storms on Saturday. Fog may become an issue near sunrise due to the air at the surface becoming saturated either by precipitation or by ground evaporation. Precipitation chances will begin to trail off towards Sunday afternoon, though the high resolution models indicate that there may still be some isolated showers in the area; forthcoming runs could place one of these showers directly over the track, but for this forecast conditions remain mostly dry.

By: Stephen McCoy

Conditions have far from improved for the TOTAL 24 Hours of Spa. Starting with tomorrow, temperatures are likely in the low 90's °F, low 30's °C with the latest model runs in a good amount of agreement. There could be a bit of variance in the temperature, as was seen today where a maximum temperature of 98 °F, 37 °C was recorded at Spa (my forecasted high temperature from Tuesday was 95 °F, 35 °C). The cold front mentioned in the previous forecasts is expected to pass through the region in the late afternoon to evening on Friday, bringing with it a slight chance of isolated showers. Model guidance suggests that most of the on-track sessions should be run as normal, though the Super Pole session could be impacted by showers in the area should they occur early enough; recent runs indicate showers starting around or just before 8:00 pm local time. Northwesterly surface winds behind the front will cause temperatures to drop during the morning with a low temperature on Saturday in the mid 60's °F, upper teen's °C.

I mentioned in the previous forecasts that if the front were to stall, the chances of precipitation would likely go up, which, according to the recent model runs, will turn out to be the case. A surface low pressure system to the southeast over southern Germany (extending into northern Italy) will cause winds from the southeast to push back against the cold front, stalling it to the east of the track. The cooler winds from the northwest will undercut the warmer air from the southeasterly winds, causing widespread precipitation throughout the day. Depending on timing/intensity of precipitation some of the sessions during the day may be delayed or even red-flagged. Showers will continue into the evening and overnight with chances tapering off somewhat into Sunday. However, chances for scattered showers are still possible, though timing is less concrete. Fog may be possible during the morning as air temperatures approach dew point temperatures. The surface to 500 millibar bulk shear indicates that the aforementioned low pressure system will move to the northeast during Sunday, allowing the front to continue to track eastward. This will allow winds to shift fully to the west to northwest, bringing the coolest temperatures of the weekend to the region.

By: Stephen McCoy

The forecast looked fairly straightforward for the TOTAL 24 Hours of Spa on Sunday, however today's model runs paint a bit of a different picture for this weekend's conditions.

On Thursday, surface winds are still expected from the south to southeast due to the combination of a high pressure system to the northeast and the aforementioned low pressures system to the northeast of the region. An upper level ridge centered over central Europe will suppress the air closer to the surface which will lead to warmer temperatures and mostly clear conditions through the day.

In the previous forecast, the models indicated that the cold front off the low pressure system would move through the Benelux region during the day on Friday. Since then, a trend among the models has pushed the frontal passage closer to Saturday with the it possibly stalling into a stationary front. This later passage means that Friday will have similar conditions to Thursday, though slightly cooler as the upper level ridge begins to move northwards out of the region. The models look to be in a general sense of agreement with timing of the initial passage as output suggests the high temperature for the day will occur in the early afternoon, a few hours before the high temperature usually occurs. Much like in the initial forecast, there is a chance of scattered showers with thunderstorms possible behind the front, but isolated showers ahead of the front are also not out of the question. Surface winds during the day will be continuing from the south to southeast initially before turning to the west to northwest after the front passes.

A lot of uncertainty has arisen for Sunday's conditions as the models are not in agreement for the front's position in the region. The GFS and German models indicate that the front will fully pass through the region, with temperatures dropping to the upper 50's °F, low-to-mid teen's °C  during the day as winds pile in from the west to northwest. Meanwhile the ECMWF shows conditions much warmer as the front stalls just to the west of the region, causing warmer temperatures closer to those seen on Saturday. In the former scenario, precipitation has a slight chance to linger into the morning, though without the convective environment from Saturday. Whichever the case may be, the conditions in the graphic will most likely change as the race draws closer.