By Doug Schneider

Let's take a look back at the good, the bad, and the ugly of my race forecasts from the past weekend at Watkins Glen and Road America.

The low pressure system that was expected to bring rain to the Watkins Glen area Thursday through Friday never really did much. There were some showers around the Finger Lakes region and across Pennsylvania Thursday afternoon and evening, but they never hit the track or the airport. My initial forecast for Thursday night and Friday had rain chances that were too high, and my temperatures on Friday were off by quite a bit due to less cloud cover than expected.

My initial Sunday forecast called for a low pressure system to track across western New York over the weekend. I was confident that there would be rain, but I was uncertain about the timing of the best rain chances. This initial forecast wasn't too far off from what actually happened, but the problem was that I went the wrong direction with the Tuesday update. The models changed their tune and started to show a more southerly track of the low pressure center across northern Virginia and Maryland, keeping the rain south of the area. I bit on this change a little too hard, and took out all the rain chances from Saturday and Saturday night. In hindsight, I probably should have hedged my bets and left in at least a small chance of rain as the large scale pattern was still an active one. Sometimes it is best to focus on the larger pattern shown by the models rather than focus on the smaller details, which can often change drastically from one model run to the next. 

Sure enough, the Wednesday model runs completely flip-flopped, and went back the their earlier track of the low across upstate New York. My Thursday morning update caught this, and ended up being accurate. I mentioned in my Thursday blog post that the heaviest rain would fall from late Saturday morning through Saturday night, with Sunday's rain being lighter and more on/off showers. My Saturday update expressed doubt that TUDOR qualifying would happen at all due to heavy rain expected around that time, and in fact it was canceled. The observed rainfall on Saturday and Saturday night was 1.86 inches at the airport, with 0.03 inches recorded on Sunday. Based on what I was seeing while watching the race, it looked like the track received more rain than that on Sunday, but as expected, it was definitely more on/off shower activity rather than Saturday's steady rain.

The forecast for Pirelli World Challenge at Road America was much better than the Watkins Glen forecast. It was also an easier forecast, as the weather was great for the entire event, with no rain recorded and comfortable temperatures each day.

Rain showers were scattered around eastern Wisconsin on Thursday, but never hit the track or the airport. My temperature forecasts for Friday and Saturday were pretty much spot on. Saturday night ended up with fewer clouds than I had initially suspected, which resulted in cooler temperatures than forecast. A low pressure system dropping southeast out of central Canada brought some rain to Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Sunday. The rain got as far east as Fond du Lac, about 20 miles west of Road America, before it dissipated. I don't feel too bad about having a low to slight chance of rain mentioned in the forecast for Sunday since the rain did get fairly close, but I went too high with the 60% chance on the Thursday update. Aside from that Thursday update, Sunday's temperature forecasts were all within one degree of the observed high temperature.

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By Doug Schneider

The Trans Am Series travels to Brainerd International Raceway for the Fourth of July weekend. The opening day of testing at the track will have a small chance of showers as an upper level trough moves across the area, mainly in the morning. It does not look like it will produce very much rain, and clouds should be decreasing through the day.

Saturday looks mostly sunny and warm - a great day for racing and a nice evening for fireworks.

A cold front will be approaching from the northwest late Saturday night and Sunday, and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. There are some timing differences in the models with this system. I have a 20% chance of rain mentioned Saturday night only because of the timing uncertainty, but it appears that the majority of showers and thunderstorms will be on Sunday. This far out in the forecast, I don't feel confident enough to pin the timing down any more precisely than that.

Check back here for forecast updates through the week, or follow @Race4caster on Twitter and our Facebook page.

By Doug Schneider

Yesterday was a beautiful day for racing at Road America, and I think today will be much the same, except for a little more cloudiness in the afternoon. A low pressure system is located over Minnesota this morning, with rain on the east side of the system over western Wisconsin. The movement of the rain is toward the southeast. Based on this trajectory and on the latest models, it looks like most of this rain will miss Road America today, and stay mainly to the west. It is possible that locations as close as Fond du Lac could see rain. I'm mentioning a slight chance of a light shower starting around 4 pm just in case the rain is able to spread a little bit farther east than expected right now. If there are showers, the TC/TCA/TCB race would be the most likely event to see rain. But the odds are good that the track will stay dry today. Temperatures will be comfortable once again today, with highs in the mid 70s. 

By Doug Schneider

There was quite a bit of rain that fell at Watkins Glen yesterday and overnight (1.32 inches to be exact), but this area of rain has moved away. Here's a look at the big picture radar early this morning (5:30 am):

Watkins Glen is located at the red dot. The L marks the location of an upper level low pressure center that will track northeast through the day. The yellow arrow marks the location of the jet stream in the upper levels of the atmosphere. As you can see from the radar image, there will be a dry period for several hours this morning. This dry area is due to the jet stream. Most of the time, significant rainfall does not occur directly beneath the jet; more often, it occurs on the periphery of the jet. This is what is called the dry slot, and it should help keep most of the measurable rain away this morning. However, there will still be overcast low clouds and a few light sprinkles possible at times. 

The northeast movement of the upper level low pressure center will bring it over Watkins Glen this afternoon, and it will likely bring a little more significant rain than just sprinkles. Light on and off rain showers will be possible at any time in the afternoon. It could make for some interesting conditions and race strategies in the later stages of the race. Rainfall amounts will be light, most likely less than a tenth of an inch. Winds will be shifting from northeast this morning to southwest by late afternoon, but should remain fairly light around 5 mph. Temperatures will be quite cool under the cloud cover and light rain, with highs only in the mid 60s.

By Doug Schneider

There's no way to sugar coat this forecast - it's going to be a messy day at Watkins Glen today. Light rain across Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio early this morning is spreading north, and I expect rain to begin at the track between 8 am and 11 am. The rain will be light at first, but generally increase in intensity in the afternoon. It looks like the prime time for the heaviest rainfall today will be between 3 pm and 7 pm. Here's a model depiction of what the radar might look like around 5 pm (Watkins Glen is located near the red dot in the center): 

The Continental Tire Sportscar Challenge race will certainly be wet, and I am doubtful that TUDOR qualifying, scheduled from 3:40 to 5:10, will happen at all as the heavy rain will likely be occurring in that time frame. Rain will continue through the evening, but after midnight, the rain should become a little more spotty. Total rainfall amounts today and tonight could exceed two inches. 

The good news is that the main punch of rain with this system will be exiting Saturday night. The upper level trough will be moving across the region Sunday, and this will keep numerous showers going all day. However, I expect that they will be on/off showers rather than a steady rain, and lighter than what should occur Saturday. It is difficult to say how much rain may occur with this type of sporadic shower activity, but my best estimate is between a tenth and a quarter inch. Temperatures will remain cool with the rain and cloud cover, with temperatures climbing no higher than the mid 60s.

You can keep an eye on the radar throughout the event by using our live radar link at the top of the website.

By Doug Schneider

You couldn't ask for better weather than Pirelli World Challenge will enjoy today at Road America. Sunny skies will be the rule all day, with high temperatures in the mid 70s. If you're at the track, be sure to have the sunscreen handy.

A low pressure system will be dropping southeast out of central Canada Saturday night, and be over Minnesota on Sunday. It will bring a few clouds beginning late Saturday night through Sunday morning. There will still be a fair amount of sunshine Sunday morning, and with winds from the south, highs will be pushing the upper 70s. It looks like this low pressure system will spark quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity across Minnesota and the western half of Wisconsin. The question is how far east the storms will reach. I'm seeing mixed signals on this, and the entire day could very well stay dry. But I will have a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the day to account for the possibility of them coming farther east. I think that the only race that will have a threat of rain will be the TC/TCA/TCB race that begins at 4:15 local time.

By Doug Schneider

Not much change is needed for today's forecast update. Today will be sunny and hot for IndyCar qualifying at Auto Club Speedway. If you're going to be at the track, be sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water. Saturday's temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler, thanks to some cloud cover that will be moving in. Winds will also be a little higher on Saturday, from the southwest at 10-15 mph. 

By Doug Schneider

The weather still looks great for racing Friday and Saturday at Road America. Some morning clouds on Friday should clear out and leave mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. The main change to the forecast today is the increase in rain chances on Sunday. With previous model runs, it looks like the approaching low pressure system would be weak and hold off until Sunday night. The latest data indicates that it will be faster and stronger than the models previously indicated. So I've bumped up the rain chance on Sunday to 60%. Right now, the showers appear likely to start in the late morning or early afternoon, and may continue through the rest of the day. I don't expect the rain to be heavy, mainly just light on and off showers. Rainfall amounts may be between a tenth to a quarter inch.