On Thursday, there is a slight chance for rain and thunderstorms before the morning ends as a frontal boundary will be making its way across the state. Once it pushes to the south of the area, rain chances drop and drier air will filter in behind it. As of right now, the latest run of the NAM is not showing very much rain for Alabama for the day, so lets hope that is true. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies during with a 20% chance of rain. Highs will be in the lower 70s.
There is a threat for severe weather for late Friday night and into a good part of the day on Saturday for the Birmingham area. A warm front will start to move northward bringing widespread storms during the evening and overnight hours on Friday. Rain chances will start to creep up after 12PM, but the main threat or rain will come after 8PM. The threat for severe weather during the overnight hours is low, but it is not zero. Highs will reach the lower 70s. Chance of rain is 20% before noon, and increases to 40% afterwords.
On Saturday, an upper trough associated with an upper low over Missouri and a moist, unstable airmass will be in place over Alabama. The sun will come out at times so it won’t be a total washout, but showers and thunderstorms could hit at anytime as well. All of the forecast models are showing a possibility for severe storms (strong damaging winds, severe hail, and isolated tornadoes). With surface based cape values above 2000 j/kg and storm relative helicity values over 300 m2/s2, that enough instability for rotating updrafts. Looks like the main threat for severe weather will start around 7AM and last through 10PM. By then, hopefully the threat for severe weather would have passed to the east of the area. Doug and I will be at the track, so it looks like it will be a busy day for the both of us. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s.
After singing “Couldn’t Stand The Weather” by Stevie Ray Vaughn a few times, Sunday is going to be an absolutely perfect day for racing at Barber. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s.
We will have our live radar going for Barber on the blog, and we’ll have frequent updates on our Twitter feeds if severe weather does break out on Saturday. It is April in Alabama, so we are smack dab in the middle of severe weather season here. I hope this forecast is blown out of the water and there is hardly a drop of rain during the whole weekend. I, certainly, would love to be wrong.