By Doug Schneider
I mentioned in my last post that I had low confidence in the forecast. Usually, my confidence increases as we get closer to the race weekend. But this week, that is not the case. I still don't feel very confident about this forecast. The difficulty is that there is expected to be a boundary that lingers across Ohio for nearly the entire weekend, and where this boundary sets up will determine how much rain may or may not fall at Mid-Ohio. If the boundary ends up across southern Ohio or Kentucky, then there may not be much rain at all at the track. If it is farther north, near or north of Columbus, then there could be quite a bit of rain. It is not clear exactly where this boundary will be, but since it is expected to be somewhere nearby, I have to carry at least a chance of rain every day in the latest forecast. On the bright side, the rain chances are still fairly low - a 30% chance of rain also means a 70% chance of no rain. The weekend won't be a complete washout.
On Thursday, there will likely be a lot of rain across eastern Kentcuky, southwest Ohio, and West Virginia as a low pressure system develops in that area. Mid-Ohio is on the northern fringes of that rain area, so it will be right on the line of rain or no rain. There is some model agreement that there will be least some chance of rain, so I did bump up the probability of precipitation that day from my previous forecast.
That low pressure system will be well to the east by Friday, but there will be a boundary or weak front that is stalled across Ohio. This boundary, along with an upper level disturbance, will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Again, the amount of rain that falls will depend on where that boundary is located. I think rain amounts between a tenth and a quarter inch are the most likely scenario right now for Friday.
Saturday continues to be a big question mark. One model shows a low pressure system developing over Illinois, and tracking east across Ohio on Saturday. This scenario dumps a lot of rain over Mid-Ohio. However, no other model shows this happening, so I'm skeptical. I am going to keep the rain chance at 30% for now, given this uncertainty.
With that pesky boundary still across Ohio, and a broad trough in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, I have to keep a chance of rain into Sunday. I just can't rule out that there could be some scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms around in this unsettled pattern.
I'm sure this forecast will change again, so stay tuned for updates.
On Thursday, there will likely be a lot of rain across eastern Kentcuky, southwest Ohio, and West Virginia as a low pressure system develops in that area. Mid-Ohio is on the northern fringes of that rain area, so it will be right on the line of rain or no rain. There is some model agreement that there will be least some chance of rain, so I did bump up the probability of precipitation that day from my previous forecast.
That low pressure system will be well to the east by Friday, but there will be a boundary or weak front that is stalled across Ohio. This boundary, along with an upper level disturbance, will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Again, the amount of rain that falls will depend on where that boundary is located. I think rain amounts between a tenth and a quarter inch are the most likely scenario right now for Friday.
Saturday continues to be a big question mark. One model shows a low pressure system developing over Illinois, and tracking east across Ohio on Saturday. This scenario dumps a lot of rain over Mid-Ohio. However, no other model shows this happening, so I'm skeptical. I am going to keep the rain chance at 30% for now, given this uncertainty.
With that pesky boundary still across Ohio, and a broad trough in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, I have to keep a chance of rain into Sunday. I just can't rule out that there could be some scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms around in this unsettled pattern.
I'm sure this forecast will change again, so stay tuned for updates.
