On Thursday, there will likely be a lot of rain across eastern Kentcuky, southwest Ohio, and West Virginia as a low pressure system develops in that area. Mid-Ohio is on the northern fringes of that rain area, so it will be right on the line of rain or no rain. There is some model agreement that there will be least some chance of rain, so I did bump up the probability of precipitation that day from my previous forecast.
That low pressure system will be well to the east by Friday, but there will be a boundary or weak front that is stalled across Ohio. This boundary, along with an upper level disturbance, will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Again, the amount of rain that falls will depend on where that boundary is located. I think rain amounts between a tenth and a quarter inch are the most likely scenario right now for Friday.
Saturday continues to be a big question mark. One model shows a low pressure system developing over Illinois, and tracking east across Ohio on Saturday. This scenario dumps a lot of rain over Mid-Ohio. However, no other model shows this happening, so I'm skeptical. I am going to keep the rain chance at 30% for now, given this uncertainty.
With that pesky boundary still across Ohio, and a broad trough in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, I have to keep a chance of rain into Sunday. I just can't rule out that there could be some scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms around in this unsettled pattern.
I'm sure this forecast will change again, so stay tuned for updates.