Not a bad forecast throughout the week, but still not perfect.
By Scott Martin - @RaceWx4You
As you can see by the graphic above, there is a lot of green on the spreadsheet. That means that I was able to correctly forecast the weather conditions with a degree or two, and correctly forecast the rain chances. As for the temperatures on Saturday that were so far off, this time I believe I can blame underperforming forecast models. Both forecast models that I used underestimated the warm air that was able to flow in ahead of the approaching system on Sunday. With a combination of mostly clear skies, temperatures made it into the mid 80s. But I feel good about that because nearly every other trusted weather source that I compare my forecast to also had temperatures at least 5 degrees cooler as well. No one thought it would be 80 degrees or warmer.
I think most people would agree that the yellow showing up for Sunday's rain chances is a great thing. I had a gut feeling throughout the week we would have some rain at or around St. Petersburg on Sunday, but I thought at least some drops would fall. The racing action was able to compete with dry conditions, and fans didn't have to worry about how to stay dry. Good news is that the showers all developed well inland over the Florida Peninsula, and had no worries at all about rain approaching.
I believe most would agree with me that this forecast went pretty well. I am okay with missing the precipitation forecast for Sunday because of the uncertainty to where showers would develop. I don't feel too bad about the temperature miss for Saturday, because everyone missed it due to underperforming models. I will always strive to be better with every forecast that I do, not only with Racecast Weather, but in my day job as well. It's almost impossible to have a perfect forecast, but that is what we try to do.
I think most people would agree that the yellow showing up for Sunday's rain chances is a great thing. I had a gut feeling throughout the week we would have some rain at or around St. Petersburg on Sunday, but I thought at least some drops would fall. The racing action was able to compete with dry conditions, and fans didn't have to worry about how to stay dry. Good news is that the showers all developed well inland over the Florida Peninsula, and had no worries at all about rain approaching.
I believe most would agree with me that this forecast went pretty well. I am okay with missing the precipitation forecast for Sunday because of the uncertainty to where showers would develop. I don't feel too bad about the temperature miss for Saturday, because everyone missed it due to underperforming models. I will always strive to be better with every forecast that I do, not only with Racecast Weather, but in my day job as well. It's almost impossible to have a perfect forecast, but that is what we try to do.
