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Tuesday forecast update for the Roar Before the Rolex 24

1/18/2022

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By Doug Schneider
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As I mentioned on Sunday's post, the forecast for the Rolex 24 is very uncertain, with poor model agreement. That continues to be the case today in some respects, mainly regarding the amount of rain that might (or might not) fall. 

A cold front is expected to be approaching the area from the northwest on Friday. This is slower timing than what I was seeing with Sunday's forecast. This should mean warmer temperatures during the day, with highs reaching into the lower 70s. There could be an isolated light shower around Daytona, mainly in the afternoon, but the chance of any impacts are low at this time. 

Saturday is my lowest confidence day in this forecast. It looks like the front will stall somewhere across northern Florida, and keep a chance of showers going through the day. Some models are showing a low pressure system tracking along this front, which produces a lot of rainfall at the track on Saturday. I'm not buying into this idea yet - I think it is more likely that showers are more scattered in coverage and are light, but that could change. 

There is better model agreement now that Sunday will be dry, as the front that brings the chance of rain on Saturday will exit the area. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday, peaking near 60 degrees. 

I plan to have another update posted on Thursday, unless changes are needed sooner.
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