By Doug Schneider
While the forecast graphic hasn't changed much from my initial forecast, the timing and amount of rain is coming into better focus today. There are likely to be showers in the area of VIR starting Friday afternoon, and continuing through Saturday. However, this does not look like a wash-out, and I expect that the overall impacts will be low. There could be some practice sessions that are cut short by rain, but I don't think that the rain will be heavy enough to cause cancellations.
An upper level low pressure trough will be near the Appalachian Mountains on Friday, which will create a southeast flow of moisture off the Atlantic into the Piedmont of NC/VA. This system, along with some partial sunshine providing instability, will generate numerous showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon. The rain chances will be highest late in the afternoon as the day's activities are winding down.
The good news in this forecast is that I expect the heaviest rain to fall on Friday night. It won't be great for campers, but at least it won't affect any racing action.
The upper trough will move east of VIR on Saturday, but there will still be some showers in the area as moisture remains high. I think these showers will mainly be light, and the risk of thunderstorms appears very low. Showers will be possible at any time of the day, but I think they will be most numerous in the morning, with lower chances in the afternoon.
Rain amounts for Friday through Saturday are expected to be in the range of a half to one inch, but again, I expect most of that to accumulate on Friday night.
Drier air is likely to build in on Sunday. I should mention that a couple models are showing some light showers lingering into Sunday, but other models keep Sunday dry and partly sunny. I'm leaning toward the more optimistic forecast being correct.
An upper level low pressure trough will be near the Appalachian Mountains on Friday, which will create a southeast flow of moisture off the Atlantic into the Piedmont of NC/VA. This system, along with some partial sunshine providing instability, will generate numerous showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon. The rain chances will be highest late in the afternoon as the day's activities are winding down.
The good news in this forecast is that I expect the heaviest rain to fall on Friday night. It won't be great for campers, but at least it won't affect any racing action.
The upper trough will move east of VIR on Saturday, but there will still be some showers in the area as moisture remains high. I think these showers will mainly be light, and the risk of thunderstorms appears very low. Showers will be possible at any time of the day, but I think they will be most numerous in the morning, with lower chances in the afternoon.
Rain amounts for Friday through Saturday are expected to be in the range of a half to one inch, but again, I expect most of that to accumulate on Friday night.
Drier air is likely to build in on Sunday. I should mention that a couple models are showing some light showers lingering into Sunday, but other models keep Sunday dry and partly sunny. I'm leaning toward the more optimistic forecast being correct.
