By Doug Schneider
The models are coming into better agreement on their projections for rain chances at VIR this weekend, which increases my confidence in this forecast compared to Monday. Unfortunately, they are not moving in the direction I had hoped for, as the chances of rain appear higher for Friday and Saturday morning.
A cold front will be moving from north to south across Virginia on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be numerous along this front as it approaches VIR late in the day. With good instability present and plenty of moisture to work with, I have raised the chance of rain on Friday to 80%. Thunderstorms will be a concern, and some of them could be strong, producing gusty winds,frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts are expected to be between a quarter and a half inch. While there will be a chance of rain at any time of the day, the afternoon sessions are most likely to be impacted, including the Michelin Pilot Challenge qualifying.
Rain showers are likely to persist through Friday night as the front moves through the area. If you're camping at the track Friday night, be prepared for wet conditions. Although the front will be south of VIR Saturday morning, there could still be some scattered showers around in the morning. These showers will have less impact on activities than Friday's storms. There is a much lower chance of lightning and heavy rain. If rain occurs on Saturday, I expect it to be fairly light, less than a tenth of an inch, which would not have much impact. Behind the front, a north wind will bring cooler air, and with mostly cloudy skies, highs are expected to be in the upper 70s to near 80.
The front is expected be located across central North Carolina on Sunday, and the rain associated with it should remain far enough south of VIR to keep any chance of rain out of the forecast. Weather for the main event on Sunday should be quite nice, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures around 80.
I plan on posting the next update on Friday. However, I will be at the track providing weather support, and with the active weather expected, I may not have time to put a forecast together until the evening, or possibly Saturday morning.
A cold front will be moving from north to south across Virginia on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be numerous along this front as it approaches VIR late in the day. With good instability present and plenty of moisture to work with, I have raised the chance of rain on Friday to 80%. Thunderstorms will be a concern, and some of them could be strong, producing gusty winds,frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts are expected to be between a quarter and a half inch. While there will be a chance of rain at any time of the day, the afternoon sessions are most likely to be impacted, including the Michelin Pilot Challenge qualifying.
Rain showers are likely to persist through Friday night as the front moves through the area. If you're camping at the track Friday night, be prepared for wet conditions. Although the front will be south of VIR Saturday morning, there could still be some scattered showers around in the morning. These showers will have less impact on activities than Friday's storms. There is a much lower chance of lightning and heavy rain. If rain occurs on Saturday, I expect it to be fairly light, less than a tenth of an inch, which would not have much impact. Behind the front, a north wind will bring cooler air, and with mostly cloudy skies, highs are expected to be in the upper 70s to near 80.
The front is expected be located across central North Carolina on Sunday, and the rain associated with it should remain far enough south of VIR to keep any chance of rain out of the forecast. Weather for the main event on Sunday should be quite nice, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures around 80.
I plan on posting the next update on Friday. However, I will be at the track providing weather support, and with the active weather expected, I may not have time to put a forecast together until the evening, or possibly Saturday morning.
