Racecast Weather - Your Source for Race Weather Information
  • Racecasts
  • Radar
  • 2021 Schedule
  • Links
  • Bios
  • Contact

Weather outlook for Petit Le Mans

10/4/2018

Comments

 
By Doug Schneider

Since I'm going to be attending Petit Le Mans, I've been closely watching the models over the past few days. I thought I'd share a general overview of what I'm seeing. Unfortunately, the pattern appears to be shaping up to be a wet one.

The weather pattern for this weekend and early next week across the Southeast will feature a strong high pressure area centered over North Carolina, which will provide warm temperatures and a small (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon over north Georgia. This is a typical summer-time pattern for the region, but one that is unusually warm for October. 
Picture
GFS model depiction of winds and moisture in the midlevels of the atmosphere on Sunday 10/7.
​​As we get into the middle part of next week, the high pressure ridge will be shifting eastward off the East Coast, which will produce a flow of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean into Georgia and the Southern Appalachians. With the high pressure area weakening its grip and greater moisture moving in, the chance of rain will be rising in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame of next week.
Picture
GFS model depiction of winds and moisture in the midlevels of the atmosphere on Wednesday 10/10.
The high pressure ridge remains off the East Coast, but a low pressure trough and cold front will begin to track east across the Great Plains late next week. This will strengthen the southerly flow and bring even more moisture into Georgia. A cold front associated with this low pressure system may move into the Southeast states next weekend, which would provide lift and make the chances of rain on race day even higher. 
Picture
GFS model depiction of winds and moisture in the midlevels of the atmosphere on Saturday 10/13.
​Another factor in all this is a tropical system that some the models have been showing in the Gulf of Mexico for the past few days. It's extremely difficult to make any accurate predictions about tropical cyclone formation this far out, but it has been a feature in more than one model for multiple model runs. If there is a tropical cyclone in the northern Gulf late next week, the pattern of a ridge off the East Coast and a trough in the Plains would tend to steer that system northward, into the Southeast states (the GFS model in the above images is one model that does not develop a tropical system - the ECMWF and GFS-FV3 do develop it and track it into the Southeast). 
​
So here's what I can say today about the outlook for Petit with a moderate amount of confidence:
​
- A good chance of rain each day of the event, with the highest chance of rain on Saturday.
- Mild temperatures and high humidity each day.

Any other details of the forecast, such as rain amounts, have low confidence at this time. And it's WAY too soon to speculate that this will be a repeat of the rain-shortened 2015 Petit Le Mans. The weather pattern this year looks very different than it did that year.

As always, please keep in mind...
Picture
​I'll have the full forecast graphic posted here on Sunday. Hopefully by then I can bring some good news for better racing weather than I'm seeing today. I have a feeling this is going to be a tough forecast.
Picture
Comments

    Social Feeds


    Instagram

    Instagram

    Partners

    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture

    Authors

    Doug Schneider, Scott Martin, and Stephen McCoy are race fans and meteorologists dedicated to providing accurate forecasts and timely weather updates at racing venues around the world. We forecast for IndyCar, Indy Lights, Pro Mazda, USF2000, IMSA, Blancpain World Challenge America, and World Endurance Championship, as well as major SCCA and NASA events.


    Categories

    All
    F1
    IGTC
    IMSA
    Indycar
    Le Mans
    MRTI
    NASA
    Outlooks
    Photos
    PWC
    Racecasts
    SCCA
    Trans Am
    TUSC
    Verification
    Weather Education
    WEC


    Archives

    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    March 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014



Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.