By Scott Martin
 Storm Prediction Center Severe Outlook(valid Thu 6AM - Fri 6AM) |  GFS Total Accumulated Precipitation(valid Wed 12AM - Sat 12AM) |
As I posted earlier today on Twitter, there is a marginal risk for severe weather for the area on Thursday. A shortwave trough will approach the area on Wednesday night, bringing a cold front with it. As the front moves in to the tropical air mass in the area, we can expect strong to severe convective thunderstorms at some point starting during the late evening on Wednesday and into Thursday. Rain on Thursday morning could be heavy at times, with flash flooding possible. There will probably be a lull in the action until storms start firing along the cold front. Conditions could be favorable for some strong to severe storms during the late afternoon and evening hours, with damaging winds as the main threat. Although not favorable as of now, I still can't rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado. As with thunderstorms you should always expect the unexpected.
It looks like the front will make it south of the area by Friday, but an upper level trough will hang back to the west of the area. This will keep rain and thunderstorm chances in the forecast on Friday evening through the day on Saturday. Good news is that there is no threat of severe weather.
Unfortunately, models are lining up in decent agreement that the COTA area will be receiving plenty of rainfall from this system. Since the ground has been saturated lately due to previous lows and the remnants of Patricia, flash flooding could be a possibility. As shown in the graphics above, the GFS total accumulated precipitation model run (valid at midnight on Saturday) is projecting 2 inches of rain for the area. I wouldn't be surprised if totals are higher underneath a heavy thunderstorm.
Bottom line for this situation... stay weather aware. Have a reliable source of weather information on hand. I will have updates on my Twitter feed (@RaceWx4You) throughout the week and will have radar images posted. If anything changes with this forecast, check back on our website (www.racecastweather.com) or on my Twitter feed. I hope this forecast is totally wrong and the week turns out dry. Let's cross our fingers.
It looks like the front will make it south of the area by Friday, but an upper level trough will hang back to the west of the area. This will keep rain and thunderstorm chances in the forecast on Friday evening through the day on Saturday. Good news is that there is no threat of severe weather.
Unfortunately, models are lining up in decent agreement that the COTA area will be receiving plenty of rainfall from this system. Since the ground has been saturated lately due to previous lows and the remnants of Patricia, flash flooding could be a possibility. As shown in the graphics above, the GFS total accumulated precipitation model run (valid at midnight on Saturday) is projecting 2 inches of rain for the area. I wouldn't be surprised if totals are higher underneath a heavy thunderstorm.
Bottom line for this situation... stay weather aware. Have a reliable source of weather information on hand. I will have updates on my Twitter feed (@RaceWx4You) throughout the week and will have radar images posted. If anything changes with this forecast, check back on our website (www.racecastweather.com) or on my Twitter feed. I hope this forecast is totally wrong and the week turns out dry. Let's cross our fingers.
