By Doug Schneider
I did not need to make too many changes to the forecast today, as the forecast I posted on Sunday is still generally on track. I made a few small changes to temperatures, mainly to go slightly cooler on Thursday and for the morning low temperatures. I also raised the chance of rain on Sunday a little as the models continue to show a cold front moving through the area during the afternoon.
The big question remains the timing of rain, which isn't much clearer today than it was on Sunday. Remember when I said that one model was faster to bring rain into Daytona, and another was slower? Well, the two models have completely flipped with each other - the faster one slowed down and the slower one sped up. As an example of what I'm dealing with between these models, here are their depictions of how much rain will fall between 10 am and 4 pm Sunday:
The big question remains the timing of rain, which isn't much clearer today than it was on Sunday. Remember when I said that one model was faster to bring rain into Daytona, and another was slower? Well, the two models have completely flipped with each other - the faster one slowed down and the slower one sped up. As an example of what I'm dealing with between these models, here are their depictions of how much rain will fall between 10 am and 4 pm Sunday:
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The GFS model on the left has around 1.5 inches at Daytona in that six hour period. Obviously, that would have a major impact on the race. On the right, we have the European (or ECMWF) model, which only has about 0.05 inches of rain at Daytona, with the heavier rain staying to the west until the evening.
So as you can see, there's still a lot of uncertainty about the timing of rain and how much rain will fall before the end of the race at 2:40 pm.
I still think the most likely scenario is scattered light rain showers around the track late Saturday night through Sunday morning (maybe a few hundredths of an inch), with heavier and more numerous showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, arriving in the afternoon. Whether that will happen before or after 2:40 pm, I can't tell this far out. The science of meteorology isn't that exact. But if you are heading to the race, it's always a good idea to be prepared for wet conditions.
I plan on having the next update posted on Thursday, unless there's a big change before then.
So as you can see, there's still a lot of uncertainty about the timing of rain and how much rain will fall before the end of the race at 2:40 pm.
I still think the most likely scenario is scattered light rain showers around the track late Saturday night through Sunday morning (maybe a few hundredths of an inch), with heavier and more numerous showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, arriving in the afternoon. Whether that will happen before or after 2:40 pm, I can't tell this far out. The science of meteorology isn't that exact. But if you are heading to the race, it's always a good idea to be prepared for wet conditions.
I plan on having the next update posted on Thursday, unless there's a big change before then.
