By Doug Schneider
Without a doubt, this Petit Le Mans has been the most difficult race forecast I've had to make in the two years I've been making race forecasts. What makes this forecast so difficult is the influence of Hurricane Joaquin and its interaction with an upper level trough. The models have been inconsistent with each other and with themselves from one run to the next, because this pattern is highly unusual. There is also likely to be a very sharp line between very little rainfall and extremely heavy rainfall that will cause flooding, and this line is probably going to be somewhere near western South Carolina or eastern Georgia. Forecasting exactly where this line will be is really just a guess until it actually develops.
Yesterday ended up being dry at the Gainsville airport, although there were some thunderstorms reported within 10 miles. I'm not sure if these affected the track or not. It was certainly sunnier than expected, with the high temperature reaching 81. I expect that there will be much more cloud cover today and cooler as winds will be from the northeast and an upper level low moves closer to the area.
Friday will be cloudy and cool, and it is likely that there will be some light rain or drizzle on and off throughout the day. I don't expect any heavy rain, and rain amounts on Friday will probably be less than a tenth of an inch.
Saturday is a big question mark. There could be some very heavy rain, or very little rain, depending on how Joaquin interacts with the upper level low over the southeast. Joaquin is going to stay well off the coast Saturday, but the question is whether the upper low will pull some it the moisture associated with it far enough west to affect Road Atlanta. Since it appears likely that there will be at least some measurable rainfall at the track on Saturday, I am raising the rain chance to 60%. However, I still expect that the really heavy rainfall is going to stay to the east, mainly over South Carolina. I base this on my experience with these types of weather patterns. But I'm not confident about that, as this is an unusual pattern. I could be completely wrong about this, and there may be very heavy rain and flooding all day. There are still some models that are completely dry, and others show over 5 inches of rain on Saturday.
Yesterday ended up being dry at the Gainsville airport, although there were some thunderstorms reported within 10 miles. I'm not sure if these affected the track or not. It was certainly sunnier than expected, with the high temperature reaching 81. I expect that there will be much more cloud cover today and cooler as winds will be from the northeast and an upper level low moves closer to the area.
Friday will be cloudy and cool, and it is likely that there will be some light rain or drizzle on and off throughout the day. I don't expect any heavy rain, and rain amounts on Friday will probably be less than a tenth of an inch.
Saturday is a big question mark. There could be some very heavy rain, or very little rain, depending on how Joaquin interacts with the upper level low over the southeast. Joaquin is going to stay well off the coast Saturday, but the question is whether the upper low will pull some it the moisture associated with it far enough west to affect Road Atlanta. Since it appears likely that there will be at least some measurable rainfall at the track on Saturday, I am raising the rain chance to 60%. However, I still expect that the really heavy rainfall is going to stay to the east, mainly over South Carolina. I base this on my experience with these types of weather patterns. But I'm not confident about that, as this is an unusual pattern. I could be completely wrong about this, and there may be very heavy rain and flooding all day. There are still some models that are completely dry, and others show over 5 inches of rain on Saturday.
At the end of last season, NASportscar.com had a round table, and we were asked to make a crazy prediction about the 2015 TUSC season. I said: "For my crazy on-track prediction, the DeltaWing will be competitive all season, and will win a wild and wet Petit Le Mans." I should have stuck by that prediction I made nearly a year ago, because it seems like it will be more accurate than the one I made yesterday.
