By Scott Martin.
Forecast has changed ever so slightly for the overnight hours on Saturday and into the day on Sunday. Looks like the main timeframe for showers and storms to be in the Road America area will be from 3AM - 11AM Sunday morning. With an approaching cold front and instability already in place, the SPC had defined the Elkhart Lake and Plymouth areas under a Marginal Risk for severe storms until 7AM Sunday morning. The progs on this system is not really all that impressive for severe storms in this part of the state, but the 0-6km bulk shear will increase to 25 to 35 knots, and CAPE values will be in the 1,000 to 2,000 j/kg range, so an isolated severe storm could be possible. Main threat will be from dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, damaging winds, and some hail.
There is a great possibility that the storms could move out of the area by the 8AM-9AM time frame on Sunday morning, but I’m keeping the chance of rain in the forecast until 11AM, about the time that the right entrance region of the jet streak passes by and mid-level moisture levels drop. After that, skies will be mostly cloudy but will begin to clear out as the day progresses. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. Winds will be out of the west at 10-15 MPH. Chance of rain will be at 80% until 9AM, and dropping to 0% by noon.
Just keep an eye out on the storms during the overnight hours, especially if you are camping out at the track. If there is lightning, please get into your vehicle until it stops. Radar will be running overnight on our site at www.racecastweather.com. Please use it. It displays warning polygons for those who have severe storms ongoing. Also features lightning strikes, so you can see how close it is to the track. Rings on the radar are set at safety distances used by many meteorologists. Rings range in 8 miles, 12 miles, 16 miles and 75 miles.
Just keep an eye out on the storms during the overnight hours, especially if you are camping out at the track. If there is lightning, please get into your vehicle until it stops. Radar will be running overnight on our site at www.racecastweather.com. Please use it. It displays warning polygons for those who have severe storms ongoing. Also features lightning strikes, so you can see how close it is to the track. Rings on the radar are set at safety distances used by many meteorologists. Rings range in 8 miles, 12 miles, 16 miles and 75 miles.
