We do have a chance of a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms throughout the day today, with the chances being highest between 12:00 pm and 7:00 pm. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with afternoon high reaching around 85 degrees. Winds will be breezy out of the southwest at 10-15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. The chance of rain will top out around 40% this afternoon.
The latest run of the high-resolution NAM is looking promising as it is showing showers and thunderstorms moving through the area prior to sunrise on Sunday morning with a few scattered showers lingering around to the noon hour. Once we make it past noon, this solution keeps the rest of the afternoon dry through 7:00 pm. If this solution turns out to be correct, the start may be delayed to dry the track but we should easily get the full 500 miles in.
Unfortunately, the European and the GFS (American) models are keeping rain chances over the area throughout the entire day.
There will be an upper wave that will move southward through Central Indiana that will have a cold front with it. Thinking is that there will be enough forcing with this front that showers and thunderstorms will fire up and move through the area during the afternoon hours. There is some uncertainty though as the longer the morning storms linger, it could hamper any afternoon development (as the NAM was showing). If the morning storms die off quickly, then that would allow instability to build more quickly and allow for more convective development with the heating of the day (European & GFS).
If the European & GFS solution is correct, then there will be the potential for a strong thunderstorm or two with small hail and strong winds as the main threat.
So, at this point, I would like to be optimistic and go with the NAM as it is usually the worse-case scenario dealing with storms... but the realist in me wants to go with the consensus and stick with rain throughout the day. So here is my forecast for Sunday...
We'll have showers and thunderstorms possible during the morning hours and into the early afternoon hours. Those rain chances will really increase during the late afternoon and into the early evening hours, especially after 3:00 pm. Skies will be mostly cloudy when not raining and the afternoon high will be around 80 degrees. Winds will start off out of the southwest at 5-10 MPH but will become westerly during the afternoon hours. Chance of rain will start off around 40% and will increase to 70% by the start of the early evening.
Just in case... Monday's rain chances will be much less as skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. The front will begin to move back through the area and a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm may be possible along and south of the front. The high will top out around 82 degrees and winds will be out of the south to southwest at 3-8 MPH. The chance of rain will only be around 30%.
I'll have another update out later today and see if we can get some better agreement with the models.