By Doug Schneider
The forecast for Petit Le Mans was extremely difficult due to several different factors in the weather pattern that developed through the week and poor model consistency. But I won't make that an excuse. This was not a good forecast for me, and I sincerely apologize.
When I began to look at the data over a week before the race, the models were pointing toward a weak trough off the east coast and a large ridge over the central states that would push a front through on Wednesday followed by a dry northwest flow aloft across Georgia Thursday through Saturday. Sunday afternoon, some, but not all, of the models started to change their tune, showing a deeper and slower upper trough. At this point, none of them hinted at the existence of Hurricane Joaquin. Gradually the models came into better agreement on a deep trough over the southeast, with Joaquin being positioned east of the Bahamas. By the Wednesday forecast update, I started to push the chance of rain into Friday, but it was not enough as the models continued to show a slower and slower system that would pick up tropical moisture from Joaquin. There was still quite a bit of disagreement among the models on where the moisture axis would be located. I was too slow to jump on the bandwagon, as I was waiting for better model agreement on where the rainfall would be. It wasn't until Thursday's forecast update that I brought in a chance of rain on race day. In hindsight, this was probably a day too late. At least I saved face a little with good forecasts on Thursday and Friday. Better late than never, I suppose.
Here's my forecast week, in GIF form.
Saturday: Feeling good, it's going to be a nice and easy forecast to end the season.
When I began to look at the data over a week before the race, the models were pointing toward a weak trough off the east coast and a large ridge over the central states that would push a front through on Wednesday followed by a dry northwest flow aloft across Georgia Thursday through Saturday. Sunday afternoon, some, but not all, of the models started to change their tune, showing a deeper and slower upper trough. At this point, none of them hinted at the existence of Hurricane Joaquin. Gradually the models came into better agreement on a deep trough over the southeast, with Joaquin being positioned east of the Bahamas. By the Wednesday forecast update, I started to push the chance of rain into Friday, but it was not enough as the models continued to show a slower and slower system that would pick up tropical moisture from Joaquin. There was still quite a bit of disagreement among the models on where the moisture axis would be located. I was too slow to jump on the bandwagon, as I was waiting for better model agreement on where the rainfall would be. It wasn't until Thursday's forecast update that I brought in a chance of rain on race day. In hindsight, this was probably a day too late. At least I saved face a little with good forecasts on Thursday and Friday. Better late than never, I suppose.
Here's my forecast week, in GIF form.
Saturday: Feeling good, it's going to be a nice and easy forecast to end the season.
Sunday: GFS model starts to hint a strong low pressure system developing in the southeast, while other models disagree.
Monday: Now other models are starting to agree with the GFS, but I remain skeptical. We'll see.
Wednesday: Hurricane Joaquin might come into play. Uh oh.
Thursday: Welp. I messed up.
Petit Le Mans was pretty much like -
