By Doug Schneider
COTA and VIR are two really good tracks to verify forecasts because there is an airport with a reliable weather sensor within ten miles of both tracks. So here's a look back at how I did with my forecasts for Lone Star Le Mans and Trans Am at VIR.
COTA and VIR are two really good tracks to verify forecasts because there is an airport with a reliable weather sensor within ten miles of both tracks. So here's a look back at how I did with my forecasts for Lone Star Le Mans and Trans Am at VIR.
Lone Star Le Mans was not a difficult forecast as I was confident that most of the event would stay dry, with the exception of Wednesday. Temperatures were clearly the main concern, with highs each day reaching into the lower to mid 90s. There was a shower that grazed the track on Wednesday, and 0.01 inches of rain was recorded at the airport that day, verifying my 20% rain chance. My forecast high temperatures were never off by more than two degrees.
Trans Am had a very wet weekend at VIR. I'm pretty sure every session was affected by rain or at least a wet track. My initial forecast called for a chance of rain on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, but I did not have it lasting into Sunday. My next forecast update corrected that, with rain chances rising to 70% Thursday night through Saturday, then up to 100% on my next update. This was the period when the greatest amount of rain fell. Light rain continued into Sunday, and a light mist or drizzle was over the track for the race start on Sunday afternoon. My forecast temperatures verified pretty well each day and night. What I didn't forecast well (and it doesn't show up in the chart) is rainfall amounts. In my posts, I had mentioned 0.5 to 1.5 inches with my 9/23 forecast, then 1 to 2 inches with my 9/24 forecast. Both of these forecasts were actually on the higher side of what the models were predicting. It turned out that 4.74 inches of rain was recorded through the event at the Danville airport!
