By Scott Martin
Click to enlarge. The forecast for this past weekend's races at Phoenix International Raceway was very close to being right on the money. In our verification process, we go back and examine where we missed on our temperatures and precipitation chances.
For this event, rain was not even mentioned in the forecast, except for wen I said "no chance of rain." Therefore, 11/11 for the score on precipitation.
In my forecast, I sad that a high-amplitude ridge would build over the western United States and would allow for temperatures to rise quickly during the daylight hours and be well above normal for this time of year. On my forecast for Tuesday, I was a little ambitious on the strength of that ridge and decided to go a degree or two warmer than what the models had. I should have stayed with the models like I did for the rest of the week. Out of 22 forecasted temperatures (11 highs and 11 6PM temperatures), I only missed a total of five by three degrees. Therefore, 17/22 for the score on temperatures.
For this event, I scored a 29/33, or 88%. That's a pretty decent forecast, but it could have been better. Until every one of those boxes are green, there will always be a need to improve.
Doug has your forecast for this week's Trans Am action at Road Atlanta. I'll be back the following week with Indycar and PWC action in Long Beach. Have a great week.
For this event, rain was not even mentioned in the forecast, except for wen I said "no chance of rain." Therefore, 11/11 for the score on precipitation.
In my forecast, I sad that a high-amplitude ridge would build over the western United States and would allow for temperatures to rise quickly during the daylight hours and be well above normal for this time of year. On my forecast for Tuesday, I was a little ambitious on the strength of that ridge and decided to go a degree or two warmer than what the models had. I should have stayed with the models like I did for the rest of the week. Out of 22 forecasted temperatures (11 highs and 11 6PM temperatures), I only missed a total of five by three degrees. Therefore, 17/22 for the score on temperatures.
For this event, I scored a 29/33, or 88%. That's a pretty decent forecast, but it could have been better. Until every one of those boxes are green, there will always be a need to improve.
Doug has your forecast for this week's Trans Am action at Road Atlanta. I'll be back the following week with Indycar and PWC action in Long Beach. Have a great week.
