By: Stephen McCoy
The start of the TOTAL 24 Hours of Spa currently looks to have the largest chance for precipitation for the race. A few outlier models indicate that precipitation may start in the morning, however model consensus supports the idea of the main showers beginning in the early afternoon during the build-up to the green flag. CAPE values for the start of the race are projected between 500-800 J/kg, which speaking from an American viewpoint is a small amount, however from a European standpoint it could be a moderate amount and enough to kick of thunderstorms in the mid-to-late afternoon. As Sunday approaches, thunderstorm potential should decrease as the convective energy will be used up by storms on Saturday. Fog may become an issue near sunrise due to the air at the surface becoming saturated either by precipitation or by ground evaporation. Precipitation chances will begin to trail off towards Sunday afternoon, though the high resolution models indicate that there may still be some isolated showers in the area; forthcoming runs could place one of these showers directly over the track, but for this forecast conditions remain mostly dry.
Doug Schneider, Scott Martin, and Stephen McCoy are race fans and meteorologists dedicated to providing accurate forecasts and timely weather updates at racing venues around the world. We forecast for IndyCar, Indy Lights, Pro Mazda, USF2000, IMSA, Blancpain World Challenge America, and World Endurance Championship, as well as major SCCA and NASA events.