By Doug Schneider
Back in December, I took a look at the 3-month long term weather outlook for Florida, covering January, February, and March. I thought I'd follow up that post with another look at the month of March.
That three-month outlook favored above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. Through January and February, that outlook seems to be working out. Using Winter Haven, Florida as my data point due to its central location in the state between Sebring, St. Pete, and Daytona, Jaunary had slightly below normal temperatures and slightly below normal precipitation. For February, temperatures have been much warmer than normal - in fact, there has been a streak of 11 consecutive days at Winter Haven where the temperature has reached 80 degrees, and 10 days in a row where the low has stayed above 60 degrees. Precipitation has been close to normal, but with a caveat - all the rain in February (0.99 inches) fell on one day early in the month, so 15 of the 16 days this month have not had measurable precipitation.
The outlook for March calls for the dry and mild pattern of February to continue - above normal temperatures (left image) and below normal precipitation (right image):
Back in December, I took a look at the 3-month long term weather outlook for Florida, covering January, February, and March. I thought I'd follow up that post with another look at the month of March.
That three-month outlook favored above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. Through January and February, that outlook seems to be working out. Using Winter Haven, Florida as my data point due to its central location in the state between Sebring, St. Pete, and Daytona, Jaunary had slightly below normal temperatures and slightly below normal precipitation. For February, temperatures have been much warmer than normal - in fact, there has been a streak of 11 consecutive days at Winter Haven where the temperature has reached 80 degrees, and 10 days in a row where the low has stayed above 60 degrees. Precipitation has been close to normal, but with a caveat - all the rain in February (0.99 inches) fell on one day early in the month, so 15 of the 16 days this month have not had measurable precipitation.
The outlook for March calls for the dry and mild pattern of February to continue - above normal temperatures (left image) and below normal precipitation (right image):
 March temperature outllook |  March precipitation outlook |
To quantify those images, here are pie charts that show the probabilities of the three possible outcomes - above normal, normal, or below normal temperature and precipitation at Sebring:
The most likely of the three outcomes in March is above normal temperatures at 41% probability, and below normal precipitation at 46%.
As with any outlook, keep in mind that this is a prediction of conditions that are averaged over an entire month. There may be a cold and wet weekend that could ruin a race, but this forecast could still be accurate. But overall, I think this is an outlook that bodes well for race fans.
March is when our races forecasts hit full stride. We start the month at Sebring for Trans Am action, followed by IndyCar and PWC at St. Pete the second weekend, followed by the 12 Hours of Sebring the third weekend. After that, we'll have forecasts for PWC at COTA and Trans Am at Road Atlanta. Be sure to follow @RaecastWx on Twitter, as it will be our primary source for our forecasts and live weather updates through the racing season.
As with any outlook, keep in mind that this is a prediction of conditions that are averaged over an entire month. There may be a cold and wet weekend that could ruin a race, but this forecast could still be accurate. But overall, I think this is an outlook that bodes well for race fans.
March is when our races forecasts hit full stride. We start the month at Sebring for Trans Am action, followed by IndyCar and PWC at St. Pete the second weekend, followed by the 12 Hours of Sebring the third weekend. After that, we'll have forecasts for PWC at COTA and Trans Am at Road Atlanta. Be sure to follow @RaecastWx on Twitter, as it will be our primary source for our forecasts and live weather updates through the racing season.
