By Scott Martin.
The 10:00 pm ET forecast update for Sunday at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the high resolution models are continuing to show some promise to get most of the race in... if not all 500 miles according to the race pace and the start time.
The latest run of the high-res NAM shows a line of showers and thunderstorms moving through the north and central parts of Indiana, including IMS, during the morning hours and possibly coming to an end around 10:00 am. After that, the solution is keeping IMS dry through the rest of the morning and into the early and mid-afternoon hours. After 3:00 pm, storms look to be moving back into the area, affecting the track through at least 6:00 pm and possibly later.
The HRRR is running about an hour later with the rain coming to an end during the morning around 11:00 am, but keeps any storms just to the north of the track through at least 3:00 pm. Showers look to be a little more scattered in nature after that, but it does have some approaching the track right at or just after 3:00 pm.
The lower resolution global models (European and the GFS) is still keeping rain in the area throughout the entire day, but keeping rainfall amounts on the light side after 2:00 pm, mainly under 0.10 inches.
At this point, I will side with the higher resolution models and go with rain and storms likely during the morning hours and coming to an end around 10:00 am. We should have a decent lull in the action for several hours, but we'll have to keep a very small chance of a passing shower possible during this time. Rain and storm chances will ramp back up to likely after 3:00 pm. Skies will be mostly cloudy when not raining during the morning, but some clearing is possible during the lull allowing for some sun to make it to the surface. Clouds will build back in by mid-afternoon before the rain and storms move back in to end the afternoon or start the early evening hours. The high should reach around 81 degrees after starting off around 67 degrees at daybreak. Rain chances start of around 60% during the morning hours, drop to around 20% during the lull, and rise back up around 60% again after 3:00 pm. Winds will be out of the southwest to west at 4-8 MPH.
I'll have another update out in the morning. This has been one challenging forecast for all of the meteorologists in the area and ones chiming in from afar. The atmosphere is always changing and never stays static. I'm sure there will probably be changes by the morning. Have a great night.
The latest run of the high-res NAM shows a line of showers and thunderstorms moving through the north and central parts of Indiana, including IMS, during the morning hours and possibly coming to an end around 10:00 am. After that, the solution is keeping IMS dry through the rest of the morning and into the early and mid-afternoon hours. After 3:00 pm, storms look to be moving back into the area, affecting the track through at least 6:00 pm and possibly later.
The HRRR is running about an hour later with the rain coming to an end during the morning around 11:00 am, but keeps any storms just to the north of the track through at least 3:00 pm. Showers look to be a little more scattered in nature after that, but it does have some approaching the track right at or just after 3:00 pm.
The lower resolution global models (European and the GFS) is still keeping rain in the area throughout the entire day, but keeping rainfall amounts on the light side after 2:00 pm, mainly under 0.10 inches.
At this point, I will side with the higher resolution models and go with rain and storms likely during the morning hours and coming to an end around 10:00 am. We should have a decent lull in the action for several hours, but we'll have to keep a very small chance of a passing shower possible during this time. Rain and storm chances will ramp back up to likely after 3:00 pm. Skies will be mostly cloudy when not raining during the morning, but some clearing is possible during the lull allowing for some sun to make it to the surface. Clouds will build back in by mid-afternoon before the rain and storms move back in to end the afternoon or start the early evening hours. The high should reach around 81 degrees after starting off around 67 degrees at daybreak. Rain chances start of around 60% during the morning hours, drop to around 20% during the lull, and rise back up around 60% again after 3:00 pm. Winds will be out of the southwest to west at 4-8 MPH.
I'll have another update out in the morning. This has been one challenging forecast for all of the meteorologists in the area and ones chiming in from afar. The atmosphere is always changing and never stays static. I'm sure there will probably be changes by the morning. Have a great night.
