By: Stephen McCoy
Through mid-week, an upper level trough will track eastward across the Atlantic Ocean with a low pressure system accompanying it at the surface. As the trough approaches the British Isles overnight Wednesday into Thursday, it is anticipated to stall, weaken and cause upper level winds to return to zonal flow into the weekend. However, the bulk shear between the surface and 500 millibars (according to the GFS) will be from the direct south, which will steer the surface low due north. A cold front extending out to the south from the center of the low is expected to move through Benelux in the late morning to mid-day on Friday. On Thursday, winds ahead of the front will be form the south to southeast, bringing high temperatures into the mid 90's °F or mid 30's °C; under an upper level ridge, cloud cover will be minimal during the day. With the timing of the frontal passage on Friday, temperatures during the day will likely remain fairly steady; maximum temperatures will be only a few degrees warmer than the morning low as the winds shift to the north to northwest behind the front.
Temperatures will continue to cool into Saturday morning with the low near 60 °F, 15 °C. In addition to the cool down, there is a chance of scattered showers with thunderstorms possible between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. The front is expected to be an Ana Cold Front, where the majority of precipitation occurs after it has passed. What could increase precipitation chances is the fact that model runs have shown the front largely stagnating as it becomes disjointed from the low that is still continuing its way northward.
Surface winds will continue mostly from the northwest through the end of the weekend with temperatures around 70 °F, 20 °C on Saturday and in the mid 70's °F, mid 20's °C on Sunday. Mostly cloudy skies are likely on Saturday as upper level winds continue to bring moisture from the Atlantic to the region due to the aforementioned zonal flow. Once upper level winds transport the moisture out of the area, conditions on Sunday will be mostly clear to partly cloudy with the main concentration of cloud cover in the lower levels. Cooler temperatures overnight paired with clearing skies could result in some fog during the morning hours on Sunday.
Temperatures will continue to cool into Saturday morning with the low near 60 °F, 15 °C. In addition to the cool down, there is a chance of scattered showers with thunderstorms possible between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. The front is expected to be an Ana Cold Front, where the majority of precipitation occurs after it has passed. What could increase precipitation chances is the fact that model runs have shown the front largely stagnating as it becomes disjointed from the low that is still continuing its way northward.
Surface winds will continue mostly from the northwest through the end of the weekend with temperatures around 70 °F, 20 °C on Saturday and in the mid 70's °F, mid 20's °C on Sunday. Mostly cloudy skies are likely on Saturday as upper level winds continue to bring moisture from the Atlantic to the region due to the aforementioned zonal flow. Once upper level winds transport the moisture out of the area, conditions on Sunday will be mostly clear to partly cloudy with the main concentration of cloud cover in the lower levels. Cooler temperatures overnight paired with clearing skies could result in some fog during the morning hours on Sunday.
