By: Stephen McCoy
Conditions have changed a bit for Saturday with partly cloudy conditions continuing to persist through the day, though with a now slight chance for scattered showers. Recent model output is very mixed on timing of precipitation, but should rainfall occur, totals are anticipated to be less than 1/10 of an inch. This is primarily due to the models predicting less energy in the atmosphere: CAPE values being predicted under 1000 J/kg, which is less indicative of convective storms. The cause of this is likely from surface winds out of the southwest instead of the southeast which would have brought more moisture to the region from the Atlantic Ocean. Ultimately, impacts to the track remain low as a result, however a light shower may be enough to stop or prematurely end any of the on-track sessions. Saturated air during the morning near sunrise may result in fog through the region.
On the other hand, Sunday's conditions have remained mostly the same from Wednesday's update, barring the maximum temperature. The models have come to a good consensus of convective precipitation around noon to the early afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE values from the GFS, NAM, and NAM 3km are all above 1500 J/kg, indicating the increased likelihood of thunderstorms in the region. Temperatures are not predicted to be as high as initially thought due to precipitation cooling the area before the maximum temperature normally occurs. However, dew point temperatures in the low 70's will likely cause heat index values in the low 80's.
On the other hand, Sunday's conditions have remained mostly the same from Wednesday's update, barring the maximum temperature. The models have come to a good consensus of convective precipitation around noon to the early afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE values from the GFS, NAM, and NAM 3km are all above 1500 J/kg, indicating the increased likelihood of thunderstorms in the region. Temperatures are not predicted to be as high as initially thought due to precipitation cooling the area before the maximum temperature normally occurs. However, dew point temperatures in the low 70's will likely cause heat index values in the low 80's.
