By: Stephen McCoy
Before mentioning the forecast for Saturday and Sunday, I'd like to discuss the conditions on Friday as they weren't quite what was expected. The observed low temperature for the morning was in the low 40's, with a high temperature only in the mid-50's. I mentioned in the previous forecast update that a stationary front would set up over central Texas today, but that wasn't the case. Instead, the front oriented over west Texas in a north-south manner. Winds were from the east to northeast for much of the day, which brought cooler continental air to the region as opposed to warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico. The NAM evidently caught the correct orientation of the stationary front as it was indicating cooler temperatures than the model average. However, since it was mostly an outlier in recent days, I didn't fully factor the model into the forecast.
Winds continuing from the east to northeast for Saturday will keep conditions similar to Friday. Fog and/or mist could be possible in the morning due to the air at the surface approaching or reaching 100% relative humidity. There is a slight chance for rain in the form of drizzle periodically through the day; should precipitation happen, total rainfall would be less than 0.05 inches.
However, chances for precipitation are increasing overnight Saturday as the models are trending towards a morning passage of the cold front on Sunday. Winds will pick up behind the front, increasing as the day progresses; maximum gusts will most likely be seen overnight Sunday. Cloud cover will likely begin to clear after the front passes, allowing for daytime heating to warm temperatures in the afternoon, but only to a few degrees above the morning low.
Winds continuing from the east to northeast for Saturday will keep conditions similar to Friday. Fog and/or mist could be possible in the morning due to the air at the surface approaching or reaching 100% relative humidity. There is a slight chance for rain in the form of drizzle periodically through the day; should precipitation happen, total rainfall would be less than 0.05 inches.
However, chances for precipitation are increasing overnight Saturday as the models are trending towards a morning passage of the cold front on Sunday. Winds will pick up behind the front, increasing as the day progresses; maximum gusts will most likely be seen overnight Sunday. Cloud cover will likely begin to clear after the front passes, allowing for daytime heating to warm temperatures in the afternoon, but only to a few degrees above the morning low.
