By Doug Schneider
My confidence in the forecast is higher today than it was yesterday as the forecast models are in better agreement, and the timing of the upstream weather across the Plains is playing out as expected. As I mentioned yesterday, this upstream weather will have an impact on Indianapolis, as the remnants of these storms will track east-northeast. The timing of these remnants is coming into better focus today.
Today will start off partly cloudy, but clouds will be increasing through the afternoon. There are some thunderstorms in eastern Missouri this morning, and these will be tracking east-northeast through the day. I expect that the remnants of these storms will begin to arrive in central Indiana late this afternoon. This could bring some scattered showers near the Speedway in a window between 4 pm and 8 pm. It is possible that the showers could impact this afternoon's Indy Lights race. The image on the right is a model simulated forecast of radar reflectivity at 4 pm this afternoon. A few light showers are approaching form the SW, moving E-NE at this time, but the bulk of rain looks like it will come a few hours after that. Note that this is just a forecast from one model's output of what might happen, and not necessarily exactly what will happen.
The coverage of showers and thunderstorms should increase after 8 pm this evening, so I have the highest rain chances tonight. On average, most spots in central Indiana should see about a quarter of an inch, but if a stronger storm passes over the track, up to a half inch will be possible. I think the chances of severe storms are low at this time, but a few could be strong with frequent lightning.
The storms overnight are expected to linger into Saturday morning as a low pressure system tracks across Illinois into northern Indiana along a front. Once the low tracks into southern Michigan, most of the shower activity should come to an end. I think the window for this to occur will be between 8 am and noon. While I can't entirely rule out some showers through the afternoon, I think the coverage will be scattered enough that the chances of one hitting the Speedway during the Grand Prix are low. So although I have a 60% chance of rain on Saturday, I'd put the chances of rain during the race at about 30%.
Our Indy Radar link at the top of the page will be available through the event, and I'll have weather updates on Twitter as needed at @Race4caster.
Today will start off partly cloudy, but clouds will be increasing through the afternoon. There are some thunderstorms in eastern Missouri this morning, and these will be tracking east-northeast through the day. I expect that the remnants of these storms will begin to arrive in central Indiana late this afternoon. This could bring some scattered showers near the Speedway in a window between 4 pm and 8 pm. It is possible that the showers could impact this afternoon's Indy Lights race. The image on the right is a model simulated forecast of radar reflectivity at 4 pm this afternoon. A few light showers are approaching form the SW, moving E-NE at this time, but the bulk of rain looks like it will come a few hours after that. Note that this is just a forecast from one model's output of what might happen, and not necessarily exactly what will happen.
The coverage of showers and thunderstorms should increase after 8 pm this evening, so I have the highest rain chances tonight. On average, most spots in central Indiana should see about a quarter of an inch, but if a stronger storm passes over the track, up to a half inch will be possible. I think the chances of severe storms are low at this time, but a few could be strong with frequent lightning.
The storms overnight are expected to linger into Saturday morning as a low pressure system tracks across Illinois into northern Indiana along a front. Once the low tracks into southern Michigan, most of the shower activity should come to an end. I think the window for this to occur will be between 8 am and noon. While I can't entirely rule out some showers through the afternoon, I think the coverage will be scattered enough that the chances of one hitting the Speedway during the Grand Prix are low. So although I have a 60% chance of rain on Saturday, I'd put the chances of rain during the race at about 30%.
Our Indy Radar link at the top of the page will be available through the event, and I'll have weather updates on Twitter as needed at @Race4caster.
