past week for the opening weekend of the Pirelli World Challenge
at Circuit of the America.
I am very pleased with how this forecast turned out. I know what you
are saying... "There are a few yellow boxes on your grade sheet,"
and you would be correct. Looking at the forecast models that I
used this past week, I thought that my temperatures were going to
be a little conservative. I decided to stay conservative due to
a drier airmass over the area and there were lower humidity levels
due to the flow not coming from the Gulf of Mexico. I also
thought that the added cloud cover would hinder the highs for
Sunday. Unfortunately, I underestimated the change in air flow
back from the gulf. I did raise my guess back up, but still missed
from being in the green by 1 degree.
The best news of all of this is that all of my boxes for precipitation
are green. I did go with a slight chance of rain for Sunday on a few
of my forecasts, but I also stated in those blog entries that I didn't
believe any precipitation would fall during the event, and that I was
Just being safe in putting in a slight chance.
Bottom line: It's still not a perfect forecast, and that is something
that I will strive to achieve. Weather is one of the hardest items to predict correctly every time. I missed the high temperature for Sunday by 5 degrees or less on most of my forecasts. The best news of all of this is that no rain fell at the track during the event weekend.
Thank you for following and trusting our forecasts for your favorite racing series. We strive to put the best information out there. Doug will have the forecasts for this week's events down in St. Petersburg for the Pirelli World Challenge, the Verizon Indycar Series, Indy Lights, Pro Mazda, and USF2000 series. Have a great week.