By Scott Martin.
Good morning. Let's start off with the potential for severe weather today at Road America, since teams and officials are arriving and paddock setup begins.
The Storm Prediction Center has defined the southern half of Wisconsin under a risk for severe storms during the day today. The Elkhart Lake and Plymouth areas have been placed under a "Slight Risk" throughout the day today. A surface low will move across or just south of the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Latest models have the low south of the state, and that will keep most of the more unstable air south of the area. Where that surface low moves this afternoon will determine where the best chance for severe weather to form today.
Looking at the latest run of the HRRR Simulated Radar, showers and thunderstorms will start to move through the area. These will be below severe limits. With this model run, a derecho forms around the 5PM hour across southern Wisconsin and moves quickly off to the southeast. Good news with this run is that the strongest part of the storm will be south of the track. Instability values will be well below numbers to support severe storm formation, and Significant Tornado Parameters will be at 0.
It looks like Road America will be dodging a bullet for today, but there could be a "fly in the ointment." If the low is 25 to 50 miles more northward when it moves across this afternoon, the severe threat will be greatly increased as the more unstable air would be in the area. I'll have radar up and running today so you can keep up to date with approaching storms and warnings. Main threat today will be damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Please stay weather aware as this could be a serious situation if it moves north of the forecast.
Looking at the latest run of the HRRR Simulated Radar, showers and thunderstorms will start to move through the area. These will be below severe limits. With this model run, a derecho forms around the 5PM hour across southern Wisconsin and moves quickly off to the southeast. Good news with this run is that the strongest part of the storm will be south of the track. Instability values will be well below numbers to support severe storm formation, and Significant Tornado Parameters will be at 0.
It looks like Road America will be dodging a bullet for today, but there could be a "fly in the ointment." If the low is 25 to 50 miles more northward when it moves across this afternoon, the severe threat will be greatly increased as the more unstable air would be in the area. I'll have radar up and running today so you can keep up to date with approaching storms and warnings. Main threat today will be damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Please stay weather aware as this could be a serious situation if it moves north of the forecast.
Now for the event forecast. Thursday will start off cloudy with a slight chance of showers and storms lingering from today's action. Otherwise, with a high starting to build in the southern part of the state and with winds out of the northeast, this will dry out the airmass and conditions will improve during the day. Afternoon highs will only be in the mid 70s.
On Friday, mid-level ridging will be in control of the weather, and great weather will be expected. Sunny skies and warm, with daytime highs near 80. Winds will shift during the morning starting off out of the west then out of the south before noon.
On Saturday, the ridging starts to shift to the east and moisture levels will start to rise. This will be an increase in instability to the area during the peak of daytime heating, and there is a slight chance for an afternoon or evening isolated shower or storm to develop. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies and warm, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
A surface low will drag a prefontal trough across the area for Sunday, and this will bring in a decent chance for showers and storms. There is some agreement in the models that has the precipitation diminishing during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, skies will me mostly sunny and afternoon highs will be in the mid 80s.
On Friday, mid-level ridging will be in control of the weather, and great weather will be expected. Sunny skies and warm, with daytime highs near 80. Winds will shift during the morning starting off out of the west then out of the south before noon.
On Saturday, the ridging starts to shift to the east and moisture levels will start to rise. This will be an increase in instability to the area during the peak of daytime heating, and there is a slight chance for an afternoon or evening isolated shower or storm to develop. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies and warm, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
A surface low will drag a prefontal trough across the area for Sunday, and this will bring in a decent chance for showers and storms. There is some agreement in the models that has the precipitation diminishing during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, skies will me mostly sunny and afternoon highs will be in the mid 80s.
