By Doug Schneider
While we don't normally forecast for F1 races here at Racecast Weather, I'm making an exception this time, because 'Murica.
The pattern across the country toward the later half of this week will be a large high pressure ridge over the eastern states, and a low pressure trough over the western states. With Texas located between these two features, there will be a deep southerly flow of moisture into the area. There is a good potential for a lot of rainfall on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday across Texas. Here's the total rainfall forecast from the National Weather Service through next Monday:
The pattern across the country toward the later half of this week will be a large high pressure ridge over the eastern states, and a low pressure trough over the western states. With Texas located between these two features, there will be a deep southerly flow of moisture into the area. There is a good potential for a lot of rainfall on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday across Texas. Here's the total rainfall forecast from the National Weather Service through next Monday:
Circuit of the Americas is in the dark purple to dark red area, which translates to between 2 and 3 inches of rain. Keep in mind that this is a forecast of rainfall over an entire week, so it doesn't mean that is how much will fall during the event. As the timing stands right now, it does look like the bulk of this rainfall will come Thursday night through Saturday night. My confidence in this forecast is fairly high right now, as the models appear to be in good agreement with this wet pattern, which is why I went with high rain chances on Friday and Saturday. Some thunderstorms will be possible at times, and it will be breezy both days, with winds from the southeast to east at 10 to 20 mph. A threat of severe weather appears unlikely at this time. It is likely that some, if not all, F1 practice and qualifying sessions will be wet.
The timing of the end of the rain is a little less certain at this point, with some models being a little faster than others to end the rain. It could linger into Sunday morning, so I have a 40% chance of rain at that time. If this timing holds, it is likely that the race will be dry on Sunday afternoon. I'd put the chances of a dry race at about 75% right now.
If there are significant changes in this forecast through the week, I'll make a new post with an updated forecast. Be sure to follow our Twitter and Facebook feeds for the latest information, or subscribe to our RSS feed.
The timing of the end of the rain is a little less certain at this point, with some models being a little faster than others to end the rain. It could linger into Sunday morning, so I have a 40% chance of rain at that time. If this timing holds, it is likely that the race will be dry on Sunday afternoon. I'd put the chances of a dry race at about 75% right now.
If there are significant changes in this forecast through the week, I'll make a new post with an updated forecast. Be sure to follow our Twitter and Facebook feeds for the latest information, or subscribe to our RSS feed.
