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First forecast for the Chevrolet Grand Prix at CTMP

6/27/2022

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By Doug Schneider
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Sometimes making a forecast graphic is difficult to properly reflect what I think the weather will be. This graphic looks like there will be more rain at CTMP this weekend than I expect there to be, due to the uncertain timing of rain associated with a cold front.

A cold front will be moving across the upper Great Lakes on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front may be in the Lake Ontario area late Friday afternoon or evening. The final session on Friday is MPC qualifying from 5 pm to 5:45 pm, and it will be close as to whether it is affected by these storms. Right now, I'm putting the chance of rain before 5:45 pm at 30%. I think the bulk of rain will hold off until later in the evening or Friday night.

How quickly the front moves through on Friday night will affect the chance of rain on Saturday morning. I have a 20% chance of showers in the forecast for Saturday morning to account for the models that are slower with the front. However, it is possible that the rain with the front may be gone by the time the WeatherTech Championship practice starts at 8 am. Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s.

Sunday looks like a beautiful day for racing. Drier air builds in behind the front, and I expect mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 70s for the WeatherTech Championship race in the afternoon. 
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