By Doug Schneider
Click images to enlarge
Click images to enlarge
 |  |
The days leading up to the race weekend at Le Mans are likely to see a good amount of rain, but the good news is that the pattern is expected to change in time for the race.
A slow-moving low pressure system will be stalled over western France for the first half of the week. As I type this, showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the Le Mans area. With the low basically stationary, periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday and Tuesday, and likely through Wednesday and possibly Thursday as well. The weather map below shows one model's depiction of the pattern on Wednesday.
A slow-moving low pressure system will be stalled over western France for the first half of the week. As I type this, showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the Le Mans area. With the low basically stationary, periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday and Tuesday, and likely through Wednesday and possibly Thursday as well. The weather map below shows one model's depiction of the pattern on Wednesday.
On Thursday, the low pressure system is shown by the models to being a northward movement. I am a little skeptical that it will move out this quickly though, as this type of pattern usually evolves very slowly. So I think that showers and thunderstorms are likely again on Thursday, although the low will be over England rather than France.
As the low slowly continues a northward track, the chance of rain will be decreasing. On Friday there may be enough instability for some scattered afternoon showers, but the chance is lower than Wednesday or Thursday. Temperatures will be climbing on Friday as there should be a little more sunshine, and high temperatures around 70 F or 21 C are expected.
On Saturday the low should be too far north to have any impact, although there will be a weak trough remaining in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. I don't think this trough will be strong enough to produce any rain on Saturday, but I'm not 100% confident of that. While I think that Saturday will remain dry at this time, later forecast updates may add a small chance of a shower.
I'm more confident that Sunday will be dry, as a ridge of high pressure through the lower and mid levels will be building across western Europe. It should be a really nice end to the race, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures reaching the mid 70s F or lower 20s C.
Unless there is a significant change needed, I plan to have the next update posted on Tuesday. Thanks for following and sharing our forecast.
On Saturday the low should be too far north to have any impact, although there will be a weak trough remaining in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. I don't think this trough will be strong enough to produce any rain on Saturday, but I'm not 100% confident of that. While I think that Saturday will remain dry at this time, later forecast updates may add a small chance of a shower.
I'm more confident that Sunday will be dry, as a ridge of high pressure through the lower and mid levels will be building across western Europe. It should be a really nice end to the race, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures reaching the mid 70s F or lower 20s C.
Unless there is a significant change needed, I plan to have the next update posted on Tuesday. Thanks for following and sharing our forecast.
