It has become an annual tradition at Racecast Weather to share with you the best photos that combine our two favorite things - weather and race cars. Nothing compliments the beauty of race cars like a breath-taking weather scene in the background. So here's the collection for 2017 - click to enlarge. Hope you enjoy them.
By Doug Schneider - @Race4caster It has become an annual tradition at Racecast Weather to share with you the best photos that combine our two favorite things - weather and race cars. Nothing compliments the beauty of race cars like a breath-taking weather scene in the background. So here's the collection for 2017 - click to enlarge. Hope you enjoy them. By Doug Schneider - @Race4caster The outlook for the Six Hours of Fuji hasn't changed much in the past few days. It still looks like a very wet weekend as a front is expected to stall near the southern coastline of Japan. The one bright spot in this forecast update is that the impact of the rain on Saturday looks less than it did before.
Today, radar shows that a solid line of showers will move across Fuji Speedway, associated with a cold front. As the front moves southeast, it will stall near the southern coast of Japan, just south of the track. Warm, moist air riding up and over the front will keep periods of rain going through Saturday and Sunday. The flow of moisture over the front appears to be weaker than it did a few days ago, so I have lowered the forecast rainfall amounts on Saturday, and dropped the Impact back to Moderate. This means that all planned on-track activity should be able to be completed, but probably not without some delays or at least the use of rain tires. The pattern doesn't change much for Sunday, and periods of rain will continue to affect the racing action. Rainfall amounts look higher on Sunday than Saturday, with up to a half inch (13 mm) expected through the day. I think it will be a steady light to moderate rain, rather than a heavy rain that will cause the race to be stopped. Thus, I have the Impact as Moderate. With the surface front located to the south, temperatures will be cool all weekend. By Doug Schneider - @Race4caster The forecast for the Six Hours of Fuji weekend isn't a question of whether it will rain or not - it's going to rain, but how much will fall and how the racing will be impacted by it are the questions that remain to be answered.
The weather pattern across the region will be a front pushing toward the southeast across the Sea of Japan on Friday, which will stall across the southern half of Japan on Saturday. A southerly flow of moist air above the surface will ride up and over the front, which will make for a very wet day on Saturday. An upper level trough will also be approaching from the west on Saturday, further enhancing the rain that day. But that trough is expected to help push that front a little further to the south on Sunday, which could mean less rainfall on race day. There is good model agreement about this general pattern, so I'm confident that there will be rain, especially on Saturday, but the details of how much rain might fall is still uncertain. Saturday will likely have the greatest rainfall amounts, which is why I have the Impact as High that day. Friday and Sunday may have less rain, so I have a Low to Moderate Impact rating for those days. My best estimate of rain amounts on Friday and Sunday is between 0.1 and 0.3 inches (3-8 mm) each day, and between 0.5 and 1 inch on Saturday (13-25 mm). The exact position of where the front will be located each day will have a big impact on how much rain falls at the track. This far out in the forecast, it's nearly impossible to predict exactly where it will be. With a lot of cloud cover the entire weekend, and a north wind behind the front on Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will be quite cool, with highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s (mid to upper teens Celsius). Follow me on Twitter for forecast updates through the week - @Race4caster. I'll have the next update by Friday at the latest, unless there are big changes needed before then. By Doug Schneider - @Race4caster The main weather story for the Six Hours of COTA late this week will be the heat. A large high pressure ridge through the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will be sitting over Texas, resulting in mostly sunny skies each day and high temperatures reaching well into the 90s (mid 30s C). These temperatures are 3-5 degrees warmer than normal for Austin this time of year. Everyone at the track will need to take precautions to beat the heat - drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks in the shade or in a air conditioned building, and use sunscreen.
By Doug Schneider - @Race4caster There hasn't been a big change in what I'm thinking the weather will be in Mexico City this weekend for the WEC event, but my confidence is rising that the racing will be impacted by rain each day. A low pressure system will be taking shape in the Gulf of Mexico, just off the east coast of Mexico. This will produce an easterly flow through the low and mid levels of the atmosphere that will pump moisture toward the track all weekend, but especially Saturday and Sunday. With mountains all around the city, the moisture rising up the mountains slopes will produce showers and thunderstorms each day, and mainly in the afternoon hours. I've raised the chance of rain with the forecast update to reflect my higher confidence, and I've raised the Impact to High, as I think there's a good chance of the rain being heavy enough at times to require a stoppage in the action. Rain amounts are likely to be between a quarter and a half inch each day, but amounts could be higher than that if a storm moves directly over the track.
The Weather Channel has a pretty good interactive radar display for Mexico here - https://weather.com/weather/radar/interactive/l/19.43,-99.13 By Doug Schneider - @Race4caster It looks like the WEC weekend in Mexico City could be a wet one, as there's a good chance of showers and thunderstorms each day at the track. The weather pattern doesn't change very much through the weekend, as there will be a good amount of moisture in the atmosphere. There may be a slightly better chance of rain on Saturday as a low pressure system in the midlevels of the atmosphere develops, producing an stronger easterly flow of moist air off the Gulf of Mexico. But for the most part, the showers and storms will be driven by afternoon instability. It is possible that a heavy shower could stop racing action, but rain amounts are too uncertain this far out to put the Impact rating any higher than Moderate.
I'll keep an eye on how the models change as we get closer to the event, and I'll post an update when any changes are needed. By Doug Schneider - @Race4caster Not much has changed in my thinking for the forecast for Nurburgring this weekend, but some of the finer details are coming into better focus.
The chance of rain in Friday is expected to be mainly in the late afternoon, probably moving into the area between 3 and 5 pm, with the bulk of it falling between 5 and 7 pm CEST. Rain amounts do not look particularly heavy, perhaps around a tenth of an inch, or between 2 and 3 mm. Saturday will have cloudy skies but the rain will be well east of the area by then. With very little sunshine, high temperatures will only be in the upper 60s or lower 20s C. Sunday looks like a very nice day, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures warming into the upper 70s (mid 20s C). The slight chance of rain that I had in the previous forecast is gone, as that chance of rain will hold off until Monday. By Doug Schneider - @Race4caster The opening day of on track action at Nurburgring will likely have some rain. A cold front will be moving across the area in the morning, but a high chance of rain will continue through the day as the upper level trough moves through. There is pretty good model agreement on this general pattern, so I have a high chance of rain at 70%. Rain amounts at this time appear to be between 0.15 and 0.3 inches, or between 4 and 8 mm.
The upper level trough will be east of the area by Saturday, and a weak ridge will build over the area, so I think it will be a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds. Sunday is probably the biggest question mark in the forecast. The ridge will be weakening through the day, and a weak upper level disturbance is expected to be crossing England and the Netherlands. With weak features like this, the models usually have a harder time figuring out their location and timing. I don't have a lot of confidence on Sunday's forecast, so I have just a slight chance of rain forecast for now with low impact on the race. We'll see how this evolves over the next few days, so check back for updates and follow @Race4caster on Twitter. |
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