I'll have a more detailed forecast of temperatures through the race on Saturday morning.
By Doug Schneider - @Race4caster Click images to enlarge The weather continues to look great for the 24 Hours of Le Mans. Surface high pressure will be located near the English Channel Friday through Sunday, while a strong ridge in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will be across France. This ridge is trending a little stronger in the latest model runs, which is why I have bumped up the temperatures a few degrees for today's forecast update. With the strong ridge in place, there will be lots of sunshine and no chance of rain for the driver's parade on Friday and throughout race.
I'll have a more detailed forecast of temperatures through the race on Saturday morning. By Doug Schneider - @Race4caster Click images to enlarge There hasn't been a significant change in my thinking for the forecast for Le Mans, except for a shift in the timing of rain chances from Wednesday to Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The low pressure system that I mentioned in the last forecast post is trending a little slower, which will push the chance of rain more into Wednesday night. There's just a slight (20%) chance of the rain continuing into Thursday morning as the low exits to the east. The amount of rain continues to look very light, and perhaps less than before - just a few hundredths of an inch, or a millimeter or two. So no impacts are expected at the track.
The rest of the week continues to look dry, sunny, and warm as high pressure builds over the region. It's going to be a great weekend to take in the Le Mans experience. Wish I could be there! By Doug Schneider - @Race4caster Click images to enlarge I'm not sure you could ask for much better weather for Le Mans week than what I'm expecting this year. There is good model agreement in the general weather pattern, so my confidence in this forecast is fairly high, which means I don't expect bug changes to it as we go through the week. Practice sessions begin on Wednesday, and that could be the only day that has a chance of rain. There is likely to be a low pressure system moving west to east across southern or central France that day. The position of the low will affect how much, if any, rain falls at the track on Wednesday. It may stay far enough south that no rain will fall, but I think there's enough of a chance to include a 30% probability of rain. It does appear that any rain will be light, so any impact on the practice session should be low. Amounts will likely be less than a tenth of an inch, or less than 2.5 mm. The rest of the week looks dry as surface high pressure will be centered off the west coast of France, providing a north to northwest flow across the country. Thursday may be a little breezy as the high starts to build in behind the low, with a northwest wind at 10-15 mph (16-24 km/h). Sunny skies with a slight warming trend are expected through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Unless there's a major shift in the pattern shown by the models, it's going to be perfect racing weather through all 24 hours. Follow me on Twitter and our Racecast Weather social media feeds on the right for weather updates through the week. By Doug Schneider The festivities for the 24 Hours of Le Mans begin this Sunday with the traditional scrutineering ceremonies at the Place de la République in the town center of Le Mans. There's always a big crowd on hand, as it provides fans an opportunity to get up close to the cars and drivers in a relaxed setting. The weather looks good for scrutineering this year. Sunday will have warm temperatures and plenty of sunshine, with highs in the upper 80s F and around 31 C. A cold front is expected to move across the area Sunday night, but with very little moisture to work with, the front is not expected to bring any rain. Even if there were some sprinkles, it would likely be overnight. Temperatures on Monday will be a little cooler behind the front, and winds will shift to the northwest. Early morning clouds will give way to plenty of sunshine by midday. The long term outlook for the week leading up to the big race looks promising for nice weather. The models are in general agreement that a large high pressure ridge through the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere will be across western Europe through the week and into the race weekend. Here's a depiction of what the pattern is projected to look like near the start time of the race next Saturday from the ECWMF Ensemble Prediction System: The colors represent heights at the 500 mb pressure level, so the ridge of orange colors over western Europe indicate a high pressure ridge through the midlevels of the atmosphere. The black lines are surface pressure, and we see the center of a high pressure area near Netherlands. This pattern will favor dry conditions and warm temperatures for Le Mans late in the week and the race weekend. Keep in mind that this is a forecast for 240 hours away, so things are likely to change somewhat as we get closer to the race. But so far, all signs point toward nice weather at Le Mans.
I'll have a forecast graphic for Wednesday through Sunday posted on Sunday, so be sure to check back then. By Doug Schneider The only thing better than pictures of beautiful race cars are pictures of beautiful race cars with weather in the background. Here's a collection of photos from 2016 that combine two of my favorite things (see the 2014 collection here). Photos by David Yowe, John Loftis, Morgan Rhodes, Brian Cleary, Vincent Wouters, James Boone, Richard Prince, Patrick Smith, Samo Vidic, XPB Images, Vision Sport Agency, Sports Car Digest, and Action Sports Photography. By Doug Schneider Checking the radar this morning (or early this afternoon in France), rain showers are moving across the Le Mans area. The bulk of the rain today will be in the early afternoon, so the qualifying this evening will likely be dry.
The slow-moving low pressure trough that has brought clouds and rain the past few days will continue to linger across northern France through Friday. This will keep a good chance of showers in the forecast, particularly in the afternoon. A thunderstorm can't be entirely ruled out either. Rain amounts around a tenth of an inch are likely, but if a heavier shower or storm moves over the track, a quarter inch of rain may be possible. By Friday night, the trough should be exiting the area to the east, and high pressure will start to build in from the west. A few light showers may be around Le Mans Saturday morning, but I'm still expecting that they will be gone by the time the race starts at 3 pm local time (9 am EDT). With high pressure continuing to build over France, I expect that the race will remain dry for all 24 hours of racing. By Doug Schneider I haven't had to change much from my original forecast, as the models have been consistent with the weather pattern across Northern Europe. With the models also being in good agreement with each other, my confidence in this forecast is high.
A low pressure system will be sitting over England Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring periods of showers to Le Mans, which may affect the practice and qualifying sessions on both days. The low pressure will start to push east into the North Sea on Friday, but a trough trailing behind it will still be located over Northern France, so periods of showers will continue. Temperatures will be cool under the low pressure system, with highs only in the mid 60s F (upper teens C). The total amount of rain expected Wednesday through Friday is between a quarter to half an inch (6 to 13 mm). Let me clarify that I don't expect this rain to be a constant, all day rain. I expect that it will be more on/off showers, most of which will be light. There's a chance of some showers lingering into Saturday morning, but by the afternoon, the rain should be gone and the sun should start to peek through. With high pressure building over the region, I expect that the entire race will be dry from start to finish. Sunday looks like a pretty nice day, with a mix of clouds and sun and a high temperature near 70 F (21 C). We don't have radar available for France as we normally do, but I recommend Weather Underground if you want to check the radar or current observations. By Doug Schneider This week is going to be a wet one across northern France, but the good news is that the majority of the rain is expected to be gone in time for the race.
A low pressure system will be sitting over England and the North Sea for much of the week, and disturbances in the midlevels of the atmosphere will move around this low and across northern France. Since the pattern will be slow to change, the chance of rain will remain high for several days. While showers will be possible at any time of the day on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, the afternoons appear to be the favored times for the majority of showers. The amount of rain through this period could be between 1 and 2 inches (or 25 to 50 mm). As we get into Friday night and Saturday morning, the low pressure trough will begin to move east, taking most of the rain with it. I am putting a low chance of rain in the forecast for Saturday due to the uncertainty about how fast the trough will exit, and if there is rain into Saturday, it is more likely to be early in the day. I am confident that the rain will be completely gone by Saturday night, as high pressure will begin to build over France from the west. This will give a nice day on Sunday for the finish of the race. Right now, I'd put the chances of a dry race from start to finish at 80%. Follow our social media feeds on the right for the latest forecast updates through the week. |
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