By Doug Schneider
The 12 Hours of Sebring is a week from tomorrow, so it's time to start looking at what the general weather pattern will be across Florida for next weekend. Of course, this prognosis is subject to change, and I'll have a more specific forecast for the race in a few days.
The pattern across Florida next weekend looks pretty wet. How wet varies by which model you look at, but they all agree that the pattern will favor a southwest feed of moist air from the tropics, along with a front moving southward across Florida. This pattern points toward a rainy race weekend.
Here's an image from the GFS model that gives you an idea of what the pattern might look like next Saturday afternoon (2 pm EDT to be exact). It shows precipitable water in the image (how much rain would accumulate if all the moisture were squeezed out of a column of air), and surface pressure in the black lines. I've added the approximate position of a cold front.
The 12 Hours of Sebring is a week from tomorrow, so it's time to start looking at what the general weather pattern will be across Florida for next weekend. Of course, this prognosis is subject to change, and I'll have a more specific forecast for the race in a few days.
The pattern across Florida next weekend looks pretty wet. How wet varies by which model you look at, but they all agree that the pattern will favor a southwest feed of moist air from the tropics, along with a front moving southward across Florida. This pattern points toward a rainy race weekend.
Here's an image from the GFS model that gives you an idea of what the pattern might look like next Saturday afternoon (2 pm EDT to be exact). It shows precipitable water in the image (how much rain would accumulate if all the moisture were squeezed out of a column of air), and surface pressure in the black lines. I've added the approximate position of a cold front.
The winds through the midlevels of the atmosphere are from the southwest, represented by the green arrow. This southwest flow will transport moist air from the tropics into Florida. At the same time, the cold front will be moving toward the south. Notice that the front is oriented southwest to northeast, in the same direction as the midlevel winds. This means that the front will be moving very slowly, so a prolonged period of rain is possible if this pattern should occur. The amount of rain forecast by this model for Friday and Saturday at Sebring is between 0.75 and 1.25 inches.
Are we looking at another water-logged race like 2015 Petit Le Mans? It's possible, if this pattern verifies. We're still over a week from the race, so hopefully the models will change, but this is what we're looking at right now. Stay tuned.
Are we looking at another water-logged race like 2015 Petit Le Mans? It's possible, if this pattern verifies. We're still over a week from the race, so hopefully the models will change, but this is what we're looking at right now. Stay tuned.
